Moody’s: House Prices Will Rise By 8.6% Over Next 3 Years

3 November 2017 – El Economista

An increase in the proportion of the active young population and the greater affordability of housing will boost house prices in Spain by 8.6% over the next three years, according to forecasts from the ratings agency Moody’s, which has analysed the impact of demographic trends on prices in the residential real estate sectors of seven large European markets.

In the case of Spain, the risk rating agency forecasts a rise in house prices of around 5.6% in 2018, but then limits that increase to 1.4% per annum in each of the following years, until 2020.

“Low interest rates, an improvement in economic conditions and the higher proportion of the active young population will serve to boost the housing market”, says Greg Davies, analyst at Moody’s, adding that in the last decade, the proportion of young workers has increased by 8%.

The agency indicates that the current environment of low interest rates and the economic recovery, which is reducing the still high level of youth unemployment, are contributing to the affordability of housing in Spain, although it says that salary growth is still low, which is preventing some young professionals from buying a home, something that Moody’s expects to improve over the next few years.

In this sense, the agency points out that in 2014, around 14% of full-time workers in Spain earned less than 2/3 of the median income, compared with just 7% in Italy and 9% in France.

On the other hand, Moody’s underlined that Spain has experienced a decline in the demand for new build homes, whereas there has been a lot of activity in the second-hand market. Construction activity in the country currently represents just 40% of the volume recorded in 2007, reflecting, amongst other factors, the sovereign deleveraging, including the banking sector, which has led to a substantial reduction in residential investment.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

Ministry Of Dev’t: New Home Permits Soared By 17% In 2016

4 January 2017 – Expansión

Moreover, loans to build new homes have grown by 37%, despite the tightening of controls by the banks.

A decade later, the cranes are back on the skyline of Spain’s major cities once again. The economic improvement and return of credit to the property sector boosted the construction of new homes by 17% in 2016, according to the construction permit statistics published by the Ministry of Development.

The growth was driven by a 37% increase in the financing granted to construction companies and property developers, which received €1,025 million between January and October, according to the General College of Notaries. The banks have now digested the majority of the toxic assets left over from the bubble and are opening the credit tap to the construction sector once again, albeit including more restrictions and controls to avoid repeating the errors of the past.

On the one hand, in most cases, financial institutions are demanding that 80% of developments are pre-sold before the construction of any new buildings can begin. Moreover, the banks are requiring project monitoring to audit the execution of the work and, in the same sense, a more detailed control of the clients that choose to buy properties.

With the money loaned by the banks, property developers and cooperatives have started to design buildings aimed at capturing the demand for new homes that exists in the market. “Clients believe that the worst of the crisis is over and that prices are not going to decrease any further. Moreover, financing conditions for buyers are unique given the low level of Euribor”, explains Daniel Cuevo, Chairman of the Association of Property Developers in Madrid (Asprima).

But the doors to the new real estate market have not been opened to everyone. Most of the new homes sold are “reposition” properties, in other words, they are properties that replace homes that have become too old or too small for their occupants. Young people are finding it the hardest to form their own homes, due to the high rate of youth unemployment, the level of wages and the instability in the market. (…).

In total, during the first ten months of 2016, 16,043 permits were requested to build new homes. The sector expects to reach the 20,000 permit threshold by the end of the year, a figure that exceeds the number of permits requested in 2015 by 17%, but which is still well below the 113,000 permits requested in 2006, a record year, at the height of the real estate bubble. (…).

On the other hand, the new homes that are being built post-crisis are not the same as those that were built during the boom years. Now, property developers are designing buildings with three-bedroom homes that cost the same as a two-bedroom home back in 2006. Urbanisations, which become so fashionable at the beginning of the century, are also back in demand. “People want homes with padel courts and a swimming pool, plus they now also want specific spaces to celebrate parties for children and adults”, explains the President of Asprima. In total, the Ministry of Development granted 1,175 permits to build urbanisations in Spain during the ten months to October 2016.

The increase in property construction has been accompanied by more transactions involving land. The number of land purchases by companies recorded an average growth rate of 23% during the nine months to September 2016, across the country as a whole. In certain regions, such as Madrid, the increase during the first three quarters of the year amounted to 135%. (…).

The improvement in new build construction work also extended to renovations. Thousands of households took advantage of the economic recovery to undertake home improvements and even to extend their properties. Thus, during the first 10 months of 2016, 21,801 requests were filed to renovate or restore homes, up by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. Meanwhile, demand for permits to extend homes soared by 39%, to 1,634. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Victor Martínez)

Translation: Carmel Drake