Tag: yields

Madrid & Barcelona Renew Their Main Thoroughfares

5 September 2016 – Expansión

Total investment of €900 million / Investment in retail assets at street level doubled to reach record levels in 2015. Pontegadea’s purchase of the building located on Gran Vía, 32 for €400 million accounted for 40% of total investment. Spain is still in the Top 10 target markets for large fashion operators.

The busiest, most touristic and sought-after streets in Madrid and Barcelona, such as Gran Vía and Las Ramblas, have always been an object of desire for the major players in the restaurant and leisure sector; and, for several years now, they have also been attracting the attention of the major fashion chains, which are choosing to showcase their flagship stores on these avenues.

The high footfall rates on these central streets make them the perfect target for housing the flagship stores of major fashion and accessories brands and, in exchange, these historical avenues have renewed their offer and rejuvenated their image.

In parallel, and in line with the rise of the flagship stores, the retail sector has experienced a general increase in the sale and purchase of large premises. Specifically, more than twenty new international brands arrived in Spain in 2015, of which 60% chose Madrid to open their first store and 32% opted for Barcelona, according to a report prepared by CBRE. As such, in 2016, Spain continues to rank in the top ten target markets for major international companies.

The next major brand expected to arrive in Spain is the Japanese fashion chain Uniqlo. It will begin by opening a flagship store in Barcelona, however, the Asian group is also looking for premises in Madrid. Other firms that have expressed an interest in entering the Spanish market include the Italian brands Terranova and OVS.

Overall, investment in the high street (retail assets at street level) broke records last year, with €900 million invested, twice as much as in the previous year, largely fuelled by Pontegadea’s purchase of the building that Primark now occupies on Gran Vía, 32, for €400 million. That operation alone accounted for 40% of total investment.

In Barcelona, the lack of available supply meant that investment in the high street was not as intense and sales mainly involved mix-used buildings, with a retail component, such as Diagonal 490 and the historical Torre Muñoz, in Fontanella.

The strong demand and shortage of availability in terms of prime supply have caused yields to decrease, to around 3.5% for the best products, in both Madrid and Barcelona. Nevertheless, according to CBRE, that figure is above those reported in other European cities such as London and Paris.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Deloitte: Hispania & Lar Are The Most Profitable Socimis

7 June 2016 – El Confidencial

They have been accused of: buying up assets expensively, skewing the market by paying stratospheric prices, heating up the market on its way to recovery, when it still needs time for supply and demand to adjust…the Socimis have been accused of many things, but for all their successes and failures, the reality is that they are all managing to generate more profitability than other types of investments, such as fixed and variable income, with average operating yields (net gain over initial investment) of between around 4% and 6%.

And the story goes on and on, because if we add to those figures the fact that Socimis have an easier time when it comes to obtaining financing from financial institutions – they are being offered spreads of just 1.5% – such as in the bond market – an area that several Socimis (Colonial, Merlin and Lar) have already ventured into and which Hispania hopes to explore soon, – the final yield on their investments will amount to 10%-11%.

A recent study by Deloitte, which was published last Wednesday in the Foro MedCap organised by the Spanish Stock Exchange and Markets (BME), highlights the success that these investment vehicles are enjoying, after it has analysed the gains that they are making on their investments from several perspectives. As the table in the article shows, Hispania and Lar España are, in that order, the two companies that are achieving the highest operating returns in the sector with respect to their initial investments.

Colonial, the only large listed Spanish real estate company that has not adopted the Socimi structure yet because it has tax credits from prior year losses, appears slightly behind, with an operating yield of 3%. But as Alberto Valls, Partner of Financial Advisory at Deloitte, explained, this figure is distorted by the high weight that Colonial’s French subsidiary SFL has in its portfolio. SFL is an authentic jewel in the crown of this group but because it focuses on the high-end office market in Paris, it offers lower yields in exchange for holding better assets and it does not include the exchange operation with Finaccess, which the Group will approve on 28 June.

The other side of the coin: the stock market.

Merlin, Colonial, Hispania, Axiare and Lar have an aggregate net asset value (gross value less debt) of €7,576 million, in line with the combined market value of these companies, which stands at €7,655 million. Nevertheless, if we look at each company in detail, we see that Axiare is the Socimi that has managed to best to gain the trust of investors, listing as it does with a discount premium on its NAV of 11.5%, followed by Colonial, with a discount premium of 8%. In exchange, the stock market value of Lar is 8% lower than its asset value, a difference which amounts to -3.5% and -1.5% in the cases of Merlin and Hispania, respectively, figures that indicate that those companies still have some way to go on the stock market.

Despite that punishment, if we compare the evolution of these companies on the stock market over the last two years (all of these Socimis debuted on the stock exchange in 2014) with the performance of the Ibex, we see that, according to Deloitte’s report, whilst the sample of companies increased their values by 18%, Axiare’s share value rose by 34%, Hispania’s by 22%, Merlin and Colonial by 18%, and Lar by 6%. Despite this improved behaviour, the Spanish companies in the sector are lagging behind their European counterparts, given that the EPRA index, which groups together the main real estate companies in Europe, reported an (average) increase of 23%, exceeded only by Axiare.

From this international perspective, the experts agree that, far from heading for another (real estate) bubble, there is still a long way to go in our country and that the phenomenon unleashed in the last two years with the eruption of Socimis in the stock market, is also being experienced in other countries, encouraged by the real estate recovery, surplus liquidity and the need to find returns of around 4% with controlled risks in a zero and negative interest rate environment. (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Ruth Ugalde)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Speculation Returns To The Market For Land In Madrid & Along The Coast

11 April 2016 – ABC

During the years of the crisis, investors regarded land as one of the least attractive assets. In fact, in the face of scarce demand and the paralysis in the construction sector, land values fell to historic lows. (…).

Sales of urban land, the substratum of real estate developments, are growing again after nine years of consecutive decreases. And they are doing so at a healthy – and on occasion, vertiginous – rate in certain areas of the country where the housing market has already started its recovery, such as the more illustrious areas of major cities, including the north of Madrid and established areas along the coast (Málaga, Palma de Mallorca and the Canary Islands). So much so that a warning is now spreading amongst analysts and agents in the sector: the scarcity of developable land – which does not require land planning approval – in certain areas, and renewed interest from investors is generating a new “overheating” in the price of transactions, something not seen since the burst of the real estate bubble.

The latest “Market Trends” report prepared by Solvia, the real estate arm of Banco Sabadell, warns that the expectation of a strong recovery in value is incubating operations of a speculative nature. “The fact that the supply of well-located land is scarce in areas with demand, that there is widespread liquidity in the market and that there is fierce competition to acquire assets, means that land purchases are being made for speculative purposes, in certain specific cases, for subsequent resale at significantly higher prices”.

In this sense, the study, which does not cite who is behind such transactions, highlights the cases of the Madrilenian neighbourhoods of Valdebebas and Montecarmelo. In the case of the latter, the price of land has risen by between 40% and 60% to €2,400/m2.

Montecarmelo and Valdebebas

Fernando Rodríguez de Acuña, Director General of Operations at the consultancy firm RR de Acuña y Asociados distinguishes between three players in the race for land: the financial entities and large investors, who have put their assets up for sale “in stages” and the small and medium-sized funds, which are more prone to speculative operations given that they seek high short-term yields. The confluence of these players has given rise to a situation in which both the activity and value of these real estate assets have increased significantly, if we exclude the statistical effect of operations carried out by financial entities foreclosing unpaid debt. Thus, the number of transactions carried out by operators in the sector (developers, funds and cooperatives) increased by 37% in 2015 compared with the year before and by 60% in terms of transaction volume. (…).

According to the experts, two operations in particular have caused prices in the land market in the Spanish capital to sky-rocket: firstly, the sale of 14 plots containing more than 93,000 m2 of buildable space, by the Valdebebas Compensation Board to the property developer Pryconsa for more than €55 million and secondly, the acquisition of a plot of land in Montecarmelo by Cogesa, which belongs to the Dragados group, for more than €20 million. (…).

Original story: ABC (by Luis M. Ontoso)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Idealista: Non-Residential Assets Offer The Highest Returns

23 February 2016 – Expansión

Alternative Investments / Non-residential assets generate the highest returns, ranging from 4.4% in the case of garages to 7.3% in the case of commercial properties.

Commercial premises and offices offer even higher returns than housing, in general terms, although they are less affordable for the small-time real estate investor. Specifically, buying premises to let in Spain offers a gross return of 7.3%, i.e. four tenths higher than a year ago (6.9%), according to the latest rental yield report from Idealista. Garages recorded an increase and are now being rented out for 4.4% on average (eight tenths higher than the 3.6% recorded in 2014). Offices generate a gross annual yield of 6.6% (twelve months ago that figure amounted to 6.7%).

Commerical premises are the most profitable, although it is now difficult to obtain high yields in the prime areas of large cities. Córdoba is the capital with the most profitable retail assets (8.8%). It is followed by Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (8.3%), Girona (8%) and Zaragoza (8%). Barcelona and Madrid recorded returns of 7.7% and 7.6%, respectively, in this regard at 2015 year end.

Castellón has the least attractive premises for investors (with a yield of just 4.7%, albeit it far from negligible), followed by Huelva (5.4%), A Coruña and Salamanca (5.8% in both cases), according to the data from Spain’s largest real estate portal.

Offices in Zaragoza offer the juiciest return of all the regional capitals, with a gross yield of 6.9%. It is followed by Vitoria (6.6%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (6.6%) and Sevilla (6.4%), according to the report. In Barcelona, the gross annual yield from purchasing a commercial property and renting it out amounts to 6%, compared with 5.8% in Madrid.

At the other end of the spectrum, we find the yields in Valencia (4.8%), Santander (4.9%), A Coruña and Oviedo (5% in both cases). “The office market is not as uniform as the markets for other products, which means that it is impossible to obtain statistical data for more than half of Spain’s regional capitals”, says Idealista.

In fact, the data varies by area for each city. For example, in the prime areas of Madrid and Barcelona, the return from investing in offices has stabilised, following a decrease. “We do not think that initial returns will decrease any further. Rather, they will remain stable, at around 4%, in the best areas over the next two years”, says Humphrey White, Partner and Director of the Commercial Department at the real estate consultancy Knight Frank. Later, after three, four or five years, this ratio may increase, as rents are reviewed to reflect (future) market prices, which may be higher than current prices (rental contracts specify that rents may not increase by more than CPI for five years).

“Yields stood at around 6% three years ago, but they have now stabilised at between 4%, as a minimum, and 5%”, adds White, who points out that “the market rebounded strongly in 2015”. Specifically, office leases were signed for a total surface area of 490,000 m2 in 2015, the highest figure recorded since the start of the crisis, in 2007, and that was despite the most optimistic forecasts predicting a year-end figure of around 420,000 m2, according to data from Knight Frank. (…)

Meanwhile, garages are the least profitable assets for investors in many regional capitals. The highest returns were recorded in Málaga (8.3%), followed by Santa Cruz de Tenerife (5.8%), Pamplona (5.1%) and Castellón (4.7%), according to data from Idealista. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by J. M. L.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Aguirre Newman: Office Inv’t Amounted To €5,400M In 2015

23 February 2016 – Expansión

Madrid and Barcelona / Investment volumes amounted to €5,400 million in 2015, driven by the Socimis and institutional investors.

During 2015, the office market experienced one of the best years in its history, as far as total investment is concerned, with two main regions of activity: Madrid and Barcelona. Together, the investment volume in those two markets amounted to €5,400 million, which represents a return to levels not seen since 2007, according to a report prepared by Aguirre Newman.

According to the report, the investment level achieved is the highest ever in the historical series, along with the level observed in 2007, and represented a two-fold increase in the investment figure recorded in 2014. Madrid accounted for 83% of the total transacted volume, whilst the remaining 17% was centred in Barcelona.

The CEO of Aguirre Newman, Jaime Pascual-Sanchiz, explained to Expansión that several factors contributed to this investment drive, including a recovery in rents, interest generated in the market and the renovation of buildings.

During the year, the main domestic and overseas banks that specialise in financing real estate operations, granted financing in a more active way, with fewer restrictions and more competitive margins.

The sales side was led primarily by real estate companies and institutional investors, who wanted to sell their portfolios, in some cases to leave Spain altogether.

Madrid

By market, demand for office space in Madrid recorded a 32.6% increase in gross area leased in 2015, to reach 527,967 m2, compared with 432,195 m2 in 2014. Last year, an overall increase was observed in all of the areas analysed, with an average annual increase of 6.6%.

In terms of the year ahead, around 595,000 m2 of office space is expected to be leased in Madrid during 2016.

Barcelona

Meanwhile, in Barcelona, the gross surface area leased increased by 41.6% in 2015 compared to 2014, to reach 410,447 m2. Moreover, as a result of strong demand and the “almost non-existent” supply, rents improved significantly, with an average annual increase of 9.1% over the last twelve months.

In terms of asset type, 70% of the operations closed in the market in Barcelona may be classified as medium to high risk. In the case of the Spanish capital, 80% of operations may be considered as medium risk.

The forecasts for new projects over the next two years include 56,700 m2 of new office space coming onto the market in 2016 and an additional 60,000 m2 of new office space in 2017.

Outlook

The report notes that, in an environment of political stability, investors’ interest will remain “very high” in 2016, regardless of the type of investor. In this regard, Pascual-Sanchiz believes that investors are currently more concerned with international issues, such as the crisis in China and the falling oil price, than with the political situation in Spain.

The Partner considers that competition in the sector is going to be more closely linked to a “war” of quality than a war in terms of prices. He also expects the Socimis, and to a lesser extent, the investment funds, to continue to be key players in the market over the coming year.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Bankinter: 53,000 More Homes Will Be Sold In 2016

22 February 2016 – Expansión

The recovery of the real estate market is growing from strength to strength and according to Bankinter, in its latest report about the sector, around 420,000 homes will be sold this year, in other words, 53,000 more than in 2015. But, what is driving this growth spurt?

The entity’s analysis predicts that the upswing will continue into 2017, when it forecasts that 450,000 operations will be closed.

Above all, demand for homes is going to be driven by the “improvement in employment, reduced financing costs and the increasing attractiveness of homes as investments”, says the report.

Moreover, “the combination of higher demand and a limited supply in the major cities will result in an increase in average prices in 2016 and 2017 of almost 3% p.a., a figure that could reach 5% in prime areas”, predict the experts at Bankinter.

A new feature of the real estate sector compared with 2015, will be the increase in number of new homes, in light of the upturn in new housing permits registered last year”. However, the analysis warns that this improvement will only happen “provided the political context does not result in a loss of confidence”.

Below, we detail the factors that are expected to drive house sales this year:

1 – Economic growth and an improvement in employment

Bankinter highlights that the Spanish economy is going to grow by more than 2.5% in 2016, a rate that will facilitate the continuation of the positive trend in the labour market over the next few quarters. And it adds that “the increase in the number of people in work (by 525,000, of whom 171,000 have permanent contracts) may represent a catalyst in terms of the demand for housing”.

2 – Low financing costs

Another factor…is the low rates of interest, a scenario that the bank expects to continue until the end of 2017. “12-month Euribor will remain close to 0% in 2016 and the conditions for accessing credit will continue to improve”, according to its forecasts. (…).

3 – Favourable yields compared with alternative investments

The report argues that the gross yield from housing rentals compares favourably to other investment alternatives, such as long-term deposits and fixed income securities, which are currently offering yields of around 0%. (…) …. meanwhile, “gross yields on residential investments may reach 4.0%…”.

4 – “Cultural” trend towards buying homes

The culture of ownership versus renting has survived the crisis in Spain. In fact, despite the fact that demand and the possibilities for accessing housing reduced significantly during the recession, “the percentage of rental homes still remains low (compared with the European average) and has barely increased in recent years (the current rate stands at 21%, up from 17.2% in 2011)”, explains the document. (…).

5– Market outlook

Bankinter also highlights the positive influence of the strong outlook for the market. Specifically, the entity forecasts that housing sales will grow by 6.5% this year and that the favourable conditions in the real estate market will continue into 2017. (…).

No chance of a return to the boom figures

Nevertheless, Bankinter also stresses that, despite the good times being enjoyed by the property sector at the moment, the recovery “does not represent a return, in any way, to the levels of demand seen during the real estate boom years”. The study points to various factors to explain this, such as the declining population (due to the negative migration balance), the awareness that property prices may indeed decrease and, in particular, the fact that the unemployment rate will remain above 17.5% until the end of 2017. These aspects “represent structural changes in the market, which mean that levels of demand exceeding 900,000 homes per year are no longer attainable”.

Original story: Expansión (by B. Amigot)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Deloitte: Inv’t In Shopping Centres Exceeded €1,500M In 2015

26 January 2016 – Expansión

Shopping centres are once again the most desirable assets for real estate investors, together with offices. The decrease in the price of all assets in general and the outlook for the recovery in consumption have placed shopping centres at the top of the list for funds and Socimis once again.

Although the final operations from last year have not been formalised yet, Deloitte calculates that investment in shopping centres amounted to €1,500 million in 2015, a figure than may increase by a further €100 million as a result of the transactions currently being closed, according to a study by its Financial Advisory team.

“29 operations were closed in 2015 and two or three more deals may be added to the list, once the final numbers have been formalised, which would increase total investment by around €130 million”, says Javier García-Mateo, Partner in the Financial Advisory team at Deloitte.

During the 10 months to October, investment in shopping centres in Spain amounted to €1,196 million, which fell below the figure recorded during the same period in 2014 (€2,247 million), but was higher than the amount spent in 2013 (in €867 million). Over the last three years, purchases of shopping centres accounted for around 25% of total investment volumes.

Highlights in this segment in 2015 include: the acquisition of the Plenilunio shopping centre in Madrid, for which the French group Klépierre paid the fund Orion €375 million. Lar España’s purchase of the Megapark in Bilbao, which also came in above the €100 million mark – the Socimi paid €170 million for that shopping centre. “The types of investor are very varied. Socimis and private equity funds are dominating the stage, but private investors are also making sizeable acquisitions in light of the ever lower yields being offered in the market for high street premises”, says García-Mateo.

Revaluations

The progressive increase in the interest for shopping centres has resulted in a decrease in the yield on these operations, which has fallen by 100 points in the last year, to reach 4.75%. As such it is now in line with the yields seen in other large European real estate markets such as Belgium (4.75%) and the UK (4.5%).

Another consequence has been the revaluation of this type of property. In less than two years, some shopping centres have experienced revaluations of more than 20%, says Deloitte.

Another key is the return of bank financing for the purchase of these assets. “The Spanish banks are positioning themselves strongly as financing sources against the funds of debt that have been financing shopping centre purchases until now”, added García-Mateo.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Bank Of Spain: Residential Yields Rise to 8.6%

23 October 2015 – Expansión

Now is the most profitable time since the burst of the real estate bubble to buy a home. At least that is according to official figures: the average gross annual yield of homes currently amounts to 8.6%, a level not seen since 2007, the year when prices and sales peaked in the residential market. That is the latest data published by the Bank of Spain relating to the first half of the year.

The total gross yield on a residential property “is calculated as the estimated gross income from rental plus any capital gain”. In other words, it takes into account not only the amount an investor would obtain each year from renting out a property, but also the gain that he would make by selling it after twelve months.

This indicator, which is key for buyers looking to acquire homes as safe investments, soared during the second quarter of 2015. In March, the gross annual return on homes increased to 6.180% and in June, it rose again, by 2.41 points to the aforementioned figure of 8.6%.

That means the residential yield is five times greater than the return currently offered on 10-year debt (1.75%). Bank deposits offer a return of 0.5%, according to the body headed by Luis María Linde.

What does this mean? Put simply, it means that now is an ideal time to invest in rental property, for both small and large investors. (…).

We are living in an impasse of high returns with minimal risk. House prices are beginning to rise (by 2.6% in 2015, according to Servihabitat) and so are rental prices, although at a more moderate rate (by 1%, according to the IESE index and Fotocasa).

Moreover, the percentage of citizens choosing to rent rather than buy has increased significantly, from 9.6% during the real estate boom to its current rate of 15.4%, according to data from the Bank of Spain. Over the last three years, the rental market has welcomed one million new homes and as such has grown by 42.5%. For this reason, investors looking for higher returns have launched searches for properties in areas that are well established and have high demand, to lease them out.

Eight year high

8.6% is the highest figure seen since September 2007, when the return on buying a home reached 12.1% per year. At that time (eight years ago), the residential sector was immersed in a spiral of hyperinflation and credit. The bubble was about to burst, but politicians and businessman alike were in denial, as they tried to sustain the over-heating of the real estate sector. In other words, to mislead buyers.

It was then that the residential market started to decelerate, in other words, to deflate. During the next quarter, the return on homes decreased to 8.5% and from then on, the figure did not stop falling; it entered negative territory in the third quarter of 2008 and reached its negative low (a return of -11%) in September 2012.

Now the situation is radically different. After years of depression, stigmatisation and hangovers, the recovery of the residential sector has finally begun. Gradually and in a moderate way, homes are getting more expensive, sales are recovering and the mortgage market is reactivatin. (…).

The phenomenon happening right now is something that rarely happens, even during changes in the cycle because investors are finding find bubble-like returns, but without the bubble itself.

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake

CBRE Enters The Real Estate Wealth Management Segment

18 March 2015 – Expansión

CBRE, the multi-national consultant and real estate services company, has launched a Wealth Management division in Spain, which will specialise in the management of large property estates. To this end, the US company has hired Etienne Brocas, who will advise domestic and international investors in the acquisition of properties in the country, where assets are particularly “attractive in terms of price and yields compared with those in other European countries”.

The entry of CBRE into the Wealth Management segment is one of the goals mentioned by the company in its Strategic Plan for 2014–2016. The objective of that plan is to double the company’s turnover “through organic and inorganic growth, and to expand into new and innovative business streams”.

Experience

Etienne Brocas has more than 25 years of experience in the real estate market and 16 in private banking. He was the CEO of Santander Private Banking’s real estate arm and CEO of the same sector for Western Europe at UBS Wealth Management.

Original story: Expansión (by J.B.)

Translation: Carmel Drake