Málaga is the Province with the Third Highest Cadastral Values in Spain

25 June 2018 – Diario Sur

The real estate bubble burst a decade ago, but the effects of the boom that the property sector experienced before the crisis are still reflected in the cadastral values of the assets in the province, a circumstance that would not be so important, if it wasn’t for the fact that this variable is the one that the administrations use to set the tax rate for the state (IRPF and property), the region (Sales and Transfers) and municipalities (IBI and capital gains). Although in recent years, those values have been corrected downwards to reflect market prices, the reality is that the strong pull of the Costa del Sol places Málaga in third position in the national ranking of Spain’s highest cadastral values. Together, the 1.45 million properties registered in the province have a total value of €114.1 million, which translates into an average of €78,598 each.

That average, which is well above the national average (€59,424), is exceeded only by the Community of Madrid (€115,779) and the Balearic Islands (€81,234), and comes ahead of Barcelona with an average €76,944. According to statistics managed by the General Directorate of the Cadastro, the differences are also more than considerable compared to other provinces of a similar size, such as Valencia (€51,271), Zaragoza (€66,914) and Sevilla (€55,397), as well as with other predominantly tourist areas, such as Alicante (€45,481), Las Palmas (€64,054) and Tenerife (€56,601).

The trend in recent years has been downwards after the peak of 2013 (€90,770 on average), although the current figures are still a long way from the €49,921 that was registered in 2006. That reduction is the result of the updates to the cadastral figures that are being made in most municipalities, be it because they are due because ten years have passed since the last update, or because the Town Halls have requested them once five years have passed and provided substantial differences exist vis-à-vis market prices (…).

Whilst the differences are notable between different parts of the country, if we zoom in on the province of Málaga, we also see significant variations between the 103 municipalities that comprise the province, where the average is €78,600. The western coast takes the biscuit with Benahavís in the lead, with an average of €154,770. That figure doubles the average for Málaga capital (€70,201) and is explained by La Zagaleta, the most luxurious urbanisation in Europe. Although clearly not all of the properties in this municipality of barely 7,350 inhabitants have the same value, the 14,437 properties there have a combined value of €2.2 billion, placing it above cities such as Antequera and Ronda in the ranking even though those towns issue twice as many receipts (29,415 and 25,403, respectively).

Just behind Benahavís is neighbouring Marbella, with an average of €125,350, and other towns in the area such as Ojén (€103,790), Mijas (€96,780) and Manilva (€90,960). Alhaurín de la Torre also sneaks into the top of the ranking, whilst on the next step down are other municipalities on the west coast such as Benalmádena (€88,040), Estepona (€80,440) and Fuengirola (€79,090).

Original story: Diario Sur (by Francisco Jiménez)

Translation: Carmel Drake

26 Spanish Real Estate Experts Share Their Predictions for 2018

6 January 2018 – Expansión

House prices will rise by more than 5% on average this year, with increases of more than 10% in the large cities. These gains will happen in a context of great dynamism in the market, in which house sales will grow by more than 10% to exceed 550,000 transactions. Rental prices will also continue to rise.

Those are just some of the predictions made by 26 real estate experts for Expansión.

Aguirre Newman: “House prices will grow by more than 10% in Madrid and Barcelona”.

“In our opinion, house prices are going to continue to rise in 2018, reaching average growth rates of 6%-7%”, says Juan Riestra (pictured above, top row, second from left), Director of the Residential Area at Aguirre Newman. “In Madrid, Barcelona and the coastal cities, we expect to see double-digit growth, driven by the supply of new homes that the property developers have announced, which will result in an even more intense increase in prices than seen in 2017 since new build home are typically more expensive than second-hand properties”, he adds (…).

Fotocasa: “New build homes will have a higher profile in 2018”.

“New build homes will have a higher profile in 2018, as we have already seen during the last quarter of 2017. And that, combined with the return of confidence to the housing market, will continue to push prices up if the economic context is maintained and the situation in Cataluña is resolved”, says Beatriz Toribio (pictured above, bottom row, second from left), from Fotocasa, who thinks that this effect will drive up house prices by more than 5%, but not reaching double-digits (…).

Universitat Pompreu Fabra: “Everything depends on the situation in Cataluña”.

“The upward momentum in the market will be accentuated in 2018 due to the improvement in the new build market since the homes that started to be built two years ago are now being sold”, said José García Montalvo (pictured above, top row, second from right), Professor of Economics at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra. “The major change is that new homes now account for 20% of the market, whilst before they represented 60%” (…). But “everything depends on the political uncertainty in Cataluña” (…).

Arcano: “Demand for investment in housing will continue to grow”.

“There is still a very significant imbalance in terms of demand, spurred on by the ECB’s policy and labour improvement, and a supply that is still restricted by the very low level of new house starts. Moreover, demand for housing as an investment will continue to grow. In this context, prices will rise by more than 5%”, says Ignacio de la Torre, Chief Economist at Arcano (…).

Notaries’ Centre for Statistical Information: “We expect house prices to increase by more than 5%”.

“On the basis of our analysis of the available information, we expect house prices to grow by between 5% and 10% in 2018 (…). Although we expect the housing stock to increase, due to greater investment and employment in construction in recent months, which may lead to price rises being contained, we also expect an increase in demand, given the dynamism of economic activity and the behaviour observed in the labour market”, says Milagros Avedillo, at the Notaries’ Centre for Statistical Information. In her opinion, the growth in mortgage loans will be single-digit.

Asprima: “Very few new homes will be built”.

“I don’t think that the volume of transactions will increase by more than 10% and the forecast for price growth will be below 5%”, says Carolina Roca, Vice-President of Asprima. “The most important macro-factor is income”, she laments. Therefore, prices cannot rise by much, in her opinion, although they will increase in certain areas. “New builds will recover in 2018, but not by much (…)”.

Tinsa: “The reduction in the unemployment rate will boost the market”.

“The residential market will record moderate price growth in 2018 (of between 3% and 4%), similar to that seen in 2017, with different speeds, depending on the region”, says Pedro Soria (pictured above, bottom row, second from right), Commercial Director at the appraisal company Tinsa. “The recovery will expand to more areas; the large capitals will continue to be the drivers, although the rate of growth will soften”, he adds. “The reduction in the unemployment rate and continuing investor interest, due to the prolongation of the low-interest rates, will increase house sales by between 10% and 15% (…).

Sociedad de Tasación: “New house prices will rise by 5.4%”.

“Applying our predictive model to the data from the Ministry of Development, we estimate that 14.1% more house sales will be completed in 2018 than in 2017 (…)”, says Consuelo Villanueva (pictured above, top row, far left), Director of Institutions and Key Accounts at Sociedad de Tasación. “The result (…) indicates growth of 5.4% in the price of new homes under construction for the average of provincial capitals in 2018 (…)”.

Gesvalt: “Mortgage lending will rise by around 15%”.

“According to the forecasts at Gesvalt, we predict moderate growth in second-hand house prices of around 5% at the national level, although there will be notable differences between provinces”, says Sandra Daza (pictured above, bottom row, far right), Director General at Gesvalt. (…). And by how much will mortgage lending grow? “By around 15% and there will be a slight increase in the number of mortgages that exceed 80% of the total property value”.

Foundation of Real Estate Research: “The political uncertainty will weigh down on Barcelona”.

The President of the Foundation of Real Estate Research, Julio Gil, believes that house prices will rise by “between 0% and 5% in 2018. “We will move to a three-speed market”, he thinks, referring to consolidated areas, cities in recovery and provinces with a surplus supply and/or limited demand. “And I think that Barcelona will perform less well than Madrid, weighed down by the political uncertainty”, he adds (…).

Pisos.com. “Mortgage lending will rise by more than 10% for the fourth consecutive year”.

According to Ferran Font, Head of Research at Pisos.com (…) “Historically low interest rates and the decrease in unemployment mean that we expect mortgage lending to grow at double-digit rates in 2018, like it has done for the last three years”.

General Council of Real Estate Agents: “The rise in rents will lead to tension in sales prices”.

“House prices will grow by around 5% in 2018, driven more by the refuge effect of savings than by objective economic variables”, says the President of the General Council of Real Estate Agents, Diego Galiano. “Savings are not being rewards and housing is recovering a certain degree of stability and offering good prospects for investors (…)”.

TecniTasa: “Prices will grow by around 5%”.

“On average in Spain, we estimate price growth of around 5%, but we highlight that that figure represents an average of a very heterogeneous market, by area and asset class. In some regions and for certain types of high-end homes, the increase will amount to between 5% and 10%, and may even exceed 10% (for example, in the Balearic Islands). Whilst in small towns and for cheaper homes, prices are barely expected to rise at all in 2018”, says José María Basáñez, President of TecniTasa (…).

Civislend: “The mortgage war will intensify”.

“The growth that we will see in terms of mortgage lending is going to continue to reflect double-digit rates and the war in terms of granting loans by financial institutions is going to intensify”, says Manuel Gandarias, Director and Founder of the real estate crowdlending platform Civislend (…).

Acuña & Asociados: “80% of sales will be made in 400 towns”.

“Given the current situation, the expected growth in prices at the national level for 2018 will amount to around 5.5%”, forecasts Luis Rodríguez de Acuña. However, “demand for housing is not behaving in a homogenous way across the country, and transactions are only being recorded in 1,300 of Spain’s 8,125 municipalities”. In other words, in one out of every six. And 80% of transactions “are being closed in just 400 municipalities (…)”. (…).

CBRE: “The sale of new homes will continue to gain weight”.

The value of homes will increase “by around 5% YoY at the national level, with higher rises (between 7% and 10%) in certain markets such as Madrid, Valencia, Málaga and the Balearic Islands”, predicts Samuel Población (pictured above, top row, far right), National Director of Residential and Land at CBRE (…). “Sales of new build homes are going to increase their relative weight (with respect to second-hand homes) as a result of the recovery in construction output; nevertheless, the recovery will not have an immediate impact on transaction volumes given the time lag associated with new build developments”, he says.

BDO: The land market is preventing soaring construction output”.

“We are facing a very favourable macro context (GDP and employment, above all) and therefore, an upwards cycle is likely, which will have different regional rates”, explains Alberto Prieto, at BDO. (…). “The launch of new build projects by the new large players will start to be felt in 2018, and then more intensely in 2019”, he adds. “The situation in the land market makes it unfeasible for the volume of new build homes to soar for the time being”, he says.

Foro Consultores Inmobiliarios: “Fixed-rate mortgages will play an important role”.

Carlos Smerdou, CEO at Foro Consultores, believes that “new build homes will drive the market and that recent land transactions indicate that the trend in terms of prices will be upward, of between 5% and 10%” (…). In terms of fixed-rate mortgages, “they will play an important role”, despite the fact that “interest rates are forecast to remain negative”.

MAR Real Estate: “Banks are still reluctant to grant the necessary financing”.

Rosario Martín Jerónimo, representative of MAR Real Estate in Marbella, believes that house prices will grow by more than 5% in Spain this year, on average (…). Nevertheless, she does not think that sales or mortgage lending will be as high in 2018 as they were in 2017 and that the growth rates will remain below 10% in both cases. “Buyers are willing but the financial institutions are still very reluctant to grant the necessary financing”, she explains. “Many property developers are completely financing their projects using money from private investors/buyers, without any support from the bank”, she says (…).

uDA (urban Data Analytics); “Prices will rise by more than 10% in the large cities”.

“House prices will rise by around 6.9% in 2018, although the behaviour will be tremendously heterogeneous”, warns Carlos Olmos, Director of urban Data Analytics. In other words, there will be “some large cities with growth rates of more than 10% and many other capitals with small decreases” (…).

Gonzalo Bernardos, Professor of Economic: “House prices will rise by 11% and sales volumes by 23%”.

“I think that house prices will rise by 11%”, says Gonzalo Bernardos, Director of the Real Estate Masters at the Universidad de Barcelona (…). Moreover, in macroeconomic terms, it is the best scenario for the residential market: high (economic) growth (around 3%), the creation of employment, scarce new build supply (new build permits will amount to 125,000 in 2018), very low interest rates and bank willingness to grant mortgages”. “House sales will rise by around 23% and mortgage lending will increase by 17%”.

Irea: “House prices will rise by more than 7% in consolidated markets”.

Mikel Echavarren (pictured above, bottom row, far left), CEO of the real estate consultancy and advisory firm Irea, forecasts that house prices will rise by between 5% and 10% in 2018 with respect to 2017. “In consolidated markets, the increases will be closer to 7%”. (…). In the mortgage market (…), “in theory, financing conditions will continue to be very beneficial for buyers and property developers”, he adds.

College of Registrars: “Mortgage lending will grow by around 20%”.

The registrars believe that house prices will rise by less than 5%. “Taking into account our data and the slowdown that is already being seen in Cataluña, which accounts for approximately 17%-18% of the Spanish housing market (…), we think that it will be hard to exceed a growth rate of 5% in 2018”, explains Fernando Acedo Rico, Director of Institutional Relations at the College of Registrars. (…). Something similar will happen with mortgage lending, which “will continue to grow at around 20%”.

Idealista.com: “Madrid will drive the price rises”.

According to Fernando Encinar, Head of Research at the real estate portal Idealista, house prices will rise by less than 5%. (…). “There will be cities that will experience a more acute recovery, such as Málaga, Valencia, Sevilla and the islands. But I think that Madrid is going to be the real driver, with even more accelerated price growth”. Why? “The Spanish capital is gobbling up talent and investment, and demand there indicates that prices are going to continue to rise. There is minimal stock left in Madrid (…)”.

Instituto de Práctica Empresarial: “In 2018, 550,000 homes will be sold in Spain”.

According to the Director of the Real Estate Chair of the Instituto de Práctica Empresarial, house prices will rise by 6.1% in 2018 (…). In Spain, 550,374 homes will be sold, which represents 14.5% more than in 2017, despite the sluggishness that may be seen in Cataluña.

Invermax: “Tourist areas may see price rises of 10%”.

Jesús Martí, Real Estate Analyst at Invermax, thinks that “house prices will grow by another 5%, with this average varying between the large cities and the traditionally touristy coastal areas, where they may rise by 10%”. “It is still a good time to buy a home, especially for investors”, he adds (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake

College of Registrars: House Prices & Sales Rise in Q3 2017

11 December 2017 – Registradores.org

According to the Real Estate Statistics from the College of Registrars, which took the temperature of the housing market in the third quarter of 2017, house prices continued to strengthen during the period. The House Price Index of Repeated Sales (IPVVR) increased by 2% with respect to the previous quarter, to record a cumulative YoY increase of 6.8%. Since its most recent minimum levels, recorded in 2014, the index has increased by 18.6%, which means that the reduction since the maximum prices of 2007, has moderated, to 22.4%.

Between July and September, more than 119,000 house sales were registered in the Property Registries, up by 15.6% compared to the same period in 2016. That volume of operations, like the level recorded in Q2, has not been seen since 2011 and exceeds the volumes recorded in certain quarters of 2010, 2009 and even 2008.

Over the last twelve months, 445,725 operations have been registered, the highest YoY figure for the last six and a half years, and representing a YoY increase of 13%.

The latest report from the Registry Statistics also shows an incipient change in the trend, given that new homes are also showing their first signs of recovery. In fact, they recorded the highest QoQ increase, of 4%, whilst the sale of second-hand homes decreased by 1%. Even so, second-hand sales still account for more than 80% of all operations.

The distribution of operations by autonomous region retained its typical structure, with Andalucía, Cataluña, the Community of Madrid and the Community of Valencia recording the most sales, whilst, by province, the list was led once again by Madrid, Barcelona, Alicante, Málaga and Valencia.

Purchases by foreigners

After more than a year with overseas demand exceeding 13% (of the total), the figure decreased slightly to account for 12.8% of all house purchases. In absolute terms, that means more than 15,300 operations per quarter and 59,200 per year are being closed by foreigners. According to the report from the Registry Statistics, “in a scenario of growth in the absolute number of house sales, it is normal that in percentage terms, foreign demand would tend to stabilise in the best of cases, and decrease slightly under normal conditions, without that meaning that interest from foreign citizens in house purchases in Spain is decreasing”.

By nationality, Brits maintained their traditional position of leadership, although with a slightly lower percentage than in Q2, followed by the French, Germans, Swedes, Belgians, Italians and Romanians.

The Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Community of Valencia were again the regions with the highest foreign presence, in such a way that foreign citizens account for between one third and one quarter of all purchases in those regions. They are characterised by their high tourist appeal, primarily in terms of their “sun and beach tourism” offerings. The same thing happened in the classification by province, which were led by Tenerife, Alicante, the Balearic Islands, Málaga and Girona.

Original story: Registradores.org

Translation: Carmel Drake

The Real Estate Recovery Cools Off In Valencia

12 May 2017 – Las Provincias

The recovery will have to wait. The signs of reactivation that were seen in the real estate development sector in the Community of Valencia in 2015 cooled off again in 2016. Although the number of operations involving land purchases grew by 38% last year, from 511 to 826, the fact is that they involved smaller spaces. This means that the surface area sold to property developers decreased by 10.6% from 2.3 million m2 to 2 million m2, according to data from the Ministry of Development.

The only exceptions were in the tourist areas to the south of Alicante and in the city of Valencia. “The area to the south of Alicante is still the most active place, with significant property development activity (c. 2,000 homes under construction), led by a significant recovery in purchases by non-residents. The typical buyer at this initial stage of the recovery can afford to acquire a home with own funds or with a significant down payment, representing more than 40% of the property value”, said the Director of Sales and Marketing at Solvia (Banc de Sabadell), José Peral.

In 2015, demand for buildable residential land increased along the Alicante coast, primarily in the coastal tourist towns that spark the most interest in the international market, such as Xàbia, Dénia, Benidorm, Calpe and Orihuela-Costa. Thus, in some of these areas and, in particular, in the latter, the supply of available land decreased considerably and transaction prices increased, which is why some property developers have started to move to the northern coast of Alicante, for example, to Finestrat.

Nevertheless, this trend, which started in the south of Alicante is now moving to other areas. For example, the new build market in the city of Valencia did an about-turn in 2016 after several years of inactivity, according to Peral. Currently, a great deal of activity is being undertaken: a lot of projects are already underway, building permits have been granted for others, and others still are in the pre-sales process.

This situation explains the focus being placed on these markets by the new players arriving in the Community of Valencia, such as the fund Neinor Homes, which is constructing its first projects in the Valencian neighbourhood of Malilla and in Playa de San Juan de Alicante.

In terms of the capital’s metropolitan area, there has been a slight uptake in demand for buildable residential plots of land in towns with more than 20,000 inhabitants. It is also worth noting the number of transactions involving plots of land (…) for family homes, involving small and medium-sized local property developers.

Original story: Las Provincias (by A. Castillote and Á. Mohorte)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Banks Accelerate Sales From RE Cemeteries

25 October 2016 – El Mundo

The skeletons of half finished construction sites are one of the symbols of the crisis in the real estate sector, which fell to its knees in 2008. (…). Countless developments fell victim to the crash in activity, zero demand and the closure of the financing tap.

That gave rise to a vast catalogue of half finished developments (…), which can still be found across the Community of Valencia, one of the largest real estate cemeteries in Spain. This group of toxic assets was transferred into the hands of the banks and Sareb, and they are now putting their feet down on the gas to get rid of the properties, which are still weighing down heavily on their balance sheets. The entities have been hovering over these real estate supplies for too long now; they need to get rid of them.

Nevertheless, the operation is more complicated than it might seem at first glance: it means convincing local property developers to work together with the financial institutions to reactivate the failed projects, complete the unfinished homes, sell them and recover all or some of the money tied up in the stock. According to market sources, the major stumbling block in attracting businesses to take this step once and for all, is the conditions of the agreements being offered. Although the demands relating to financing, the marketing of homes and the selection of customers and prices, amongst other aspects, have been eased compared to previous years, they are still too harsh and risky for property developers. Some of the most active entities in this sense are Solvia, Sareb and Santander, which together have been managing around 100 suspended developments in three provinces since the outbreak of the crisis and which now want to relaunch them again in collaboration with business people in the sector.

Sabadell’s real estate subsidiary has around 50 unfinished developments located in Castellón, Valencia and Alicante. Its sales team is combing the market looking for possible investors who may be interested in resuming construction at these sites. From Elche, Alicante, Elda, Los Montesinos, Albatera, Orihuela, Santa Pola, Mutxamel, Sax, to Finestrat, etc, the province is littered with buildings and urbanisations, owned by Solvia, whose construction stopped dead with the collapse in property development activity. The same thing happened in Valencia.

The marketing strategy for these types of assets is not exactly easy, given that the investment involves effectively bringing projects back from the dead. Sources at Solvia state that “those interested in these types of assets are local property developers and construction companies with average profiles who are looking for these types of assets to complete the building work”.

The target market comprises professionals who are experts in their immediate environment and who have sufficient capacity to complete the construction work and then put the properties up for sale. Solvia, in addition to managing sales to property developers, also provides marketing services once the development has been completed. And all of that with the hook of financing from Sabadell. Sareb, Santander and Solvia manage suspended developments between them that may supply up to 1,300 homes in the region. Not all of the offers will be successful. The developments that cannot be sold will probably be demolished. The projects that have more chance of success are those located in tourist areas along the coast and whose target is overseas buyers. (…).

Original story: El Mundo (by F. D. G.)

Translation: Carmel Drake