Tag: surplus stock

Fitch Warns Of RE Bubble In The Centres Of Spain’s Large Cities

25 October 2017 – El Mundo

The ratings agency Fitch is warning that a real estate bubble is now visible in the centre of Spain’s large cities, although it does not anticipate a widespread bubble in house prices across the country as a whole in the short term, due to the high volume of stock that still needs to be absorbed and the restrictions facing people wanting to access a home.

Those were the findings of analysis performed for the Housing Sector in Spain report published by the entity, which explains that bubbles involving these types of localised assets are now very evident: the strong demand and limited supply of housing in the country’s main cities are leading to extreme price increases that are becoming increasingly “unsustainable”.

According to the agency, in the central neighbourhoods of Madrid and Barcelona alone, prices have recorded an annual increase of between 15% and 35%.

For Fitch, this demand is being influenced by quantitative easing, purchases by foreigners and investment decisions, given that investors are looking to benefit from the appreciation in asset prices and rental yields. Nevertheless, the agency forecasts that these “ingredients” will not influence the overall real estate market in the short term.

Similarly, the ratings agency asserts that it is “highly unlikely” that the problems in the real estate market are correlated with the economic recovery in general and it forecasts that the average discounts being applied to sell foreclosed homes are going to continue to be very high and stable over the next few years.

This situation will continue for as long as the banking sector continues to have an excess stock of housing and for as long as buyers insist on significant discounts to acquire foreclosed homes, said the ratings agency.

According to data from the company, the discount on the sale of foreclosed homes is still “high”, up to 60% on average, compared to the initial valuation, whilst discounts can range from between 50% to 75%.

In this sense, the dispersion of the discounts on the sale of foreclosed properties is decreasing. In fact, the gap between the range of discounts decreased to 25 percentage points at the end of 2016 from 35 percentage points during the period comprising 2010 and 2011. Nevertheless, it says that this reduction is not widespread.

Problems accessing housing

On the other hand, Fitch explains that access to housing will continue to be complicated because the velocity of the house price index is exceeding wage variations.

In this way, the families’ capacity to save is increasingly reduced, also due to the labour market that favours temporary contracts over permanent ones, which makes it hard for would-be buyers to save enough to make the initial down payment of 20% necessary to buy a home.

The report also underlines that access to housing over the long-term may be limited by the gradual elimination of monetary stimuli in the market and the likely scenario of higher interest rates.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain Needs To Build 150,000 New Homes Per Year

27 December 2016 – El Confidencial

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning a few weeks ago: the greatest danger in terms of a new real estate bubble on the world scale is the lack of homes. Although it seems impossible, Spain, with its housing stock of 25 million – for a population of 47 million – of which approximately one and a half million are empty, needs more homes. In fact, it needs around 150,000 new homes per year in order to have a healthy residential market. Otherwise, there will end up being strong upwards pressure on prices (of both new builds and second-hand properties), which could lead to a new and much-feared bubble.

At least that is according to the majority of the experts in the real estate sector. From appraisal companies, to consultancies, to property developers, to cooperative managers. Everyone agrees that Spain needs more homes. But, how is that possible when the country has a surplus stock amounting to almost half a million units?

“The surplus stock, or rather, the census of unsold homes is not always in the locations in which there is demand. Homes are not bricks that can be moved from one place to another”, said Juan Fernández Aceytuno, Director General at Sociedad de Tasación. “Moreover, in some places in Spain, the stock is very low and new homes need to be built to satisfy demand”, added Julián Cabanillas, CEO at Servihabitat.

But isn’t the second-hand market sufficient to satisfy demand? “When making a major investment such as buying a home, families prefer to acquire a new build than a second-hand property” (…), said Ernesto Tarazona, Partner and Director of Residential and Land at Knight Frank.

The problem, according to the real estate experts, is that hardly any new homes are being built. Since the burst of the real estate bubble in 2007, house construction has been completely paralysed. Spain went from building 800,000 homes per year to just 35,000 homes in 2013 and 2014 (according to housing permit data from the Ministry of Development) and for the market to be healthy again, we should be building around 150,000 units per year.

“House prices and sales are definitely showing signs of improvement, but we cannot talk about the stabilisation of the sector until we see a recovery in terms of construction”, said Carolina Roca, Vice-President of the Property Developers Association in Madrid (Asprima). (…).

And that is not an easy task, according to Roca. “In order to reach that figure (of 150,000 new homes per year), we not only need land, but we also need to restore the productive and entrepreneurial fabric of the sector, given that the majority of the players in the property development and real estate sectors have disappeared. Very few property developers are actually building homes at the moment, and those that are, are doing so using own funds for the most part, given that although financing to individuals has recovered, it has not for property developers to the same extent. Not even with the entry of new players such as investment funds will we reach those figures”, laments Roca.

“The construction of 150,000 homes per year seems like a reasonable figure. Nowadays, around 500,000 homes are sold per year, of which, only 10% are new builds. During the boom years, new builds accounted for 50% of all house sales and it is likely that the percentage will end up stabilising at around 30%, which means that 150,000 homes per year seems reasonable”, acknowledged Juan Velayos, CEO at Neinor Homes, one of the new players in the sector. (…).

“Nowadays, everything that is built is sold. Off-plan homes are sold out in a matter of weeks”, said Ernesto Tarazona who, nevertheless, recognises that a very important segment of potential buyers is being left out of this timid recovery. “Nowadays, anyone wanting to buy a home for €160,000 in Madrid is going to be disappointed; they just can’t. There isn’t any land available to build houses at those prices”, comments Juan José Perucho, Managing Partner at the Ibosa Group. (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Elena Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake