Tag: S&P

S&P Encourages Spain’s Banks to Divest More Property & NPLs

18 April 2019 – Ya Encontré

Spain’s banks got rid of €90 billion in foreclosed assets and doubtful loans last year, almost doubling the transaction volume recorded in 2017 (€52 billion) and setting a new annual record. But they still have a lot of homes left to sell and Standard&Poors is encouraging them to divest more of those properties, with a view to restoring their pre-crisis risk levels of 4% within two years.

According to the ratings agency, the banks still hold properties worth €80 billion, representing one of the highest stocks in Europe and accounting for 7% of the balance sheets of the domestic financial sector. In this context, S&P considers that the banks still need to get rid of another €30 billion in assets, at least, if they are to properly clean up their accounts.

The active buyside players in the market include many overseas investors and funds, such as Lone Star, TPG, Apollo, Blackstone, Bain Capital and Cerberus, which have played an important role in reducing the stock of major financial institutions, such as Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank and Banco Sabadell.

S&P is not alone in its stance. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are also urging Spain’s banks to divest the last of their property portfolios as quickly as possible to ensure financial stability ahead of the next recession.

Original story: Ya Encontré

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

S&P: House Prices will Rise in Spain by More than in Other Major Eurozone Economies

24 February 2019 – La Vanguardia

House prices in Spain are going to continue rising for at least the next three years, although the rate of growth will slow down as the economy loses momentum and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy normalises, according to forecasts from the agency S&P Global Ratings, which points to larger rises in the Spanish real estate market than in the other major Eurozone economies.

According to the ratings agency, house prices in Spain, which registered an estimated nominal rise of 6.6% in 2018, will increase by 4.5% this year, by 3.4% next year and by 3% a year later, although S&P warns that if prices continue to grow by more than the expected incomes of households, then access to housing will continue to worsen over the coming years.

In this sense, as a result of the deep fall in real estate prices in Spain during the crisis, access to housing is still at better levels now than it was before the burst of the real estate bubble, with a ratio of prices with respect to income that is 29% lower than the maximums observed in 2007, albeit 25% higher than the long-term average.

Similarly, S&P considers that the low interest rates applied to mortgage loans for the acquisition of homes will continue to serve to support access to housing in Spain, indicating that, given the rise in inflation between May and October 2018, real rates became negative.

In addition to Spain, the agency forecasts that real estate price will continue to rise across the Eurozone, although at a lower rate than in previous years, with the exception of Italy, where an increase of 0.5% is expected this year, which will accelerate to 1.3% in 2020 and to 1.6% in 2021.

In the case of Germany, prices will rise by 3.9% in 2019, although those increases will moderate to 3.3% and 3% in the subsequent two years, respectively, whilst in France, house prices are predicted to rise by 2.4% this year and by 2% in the following two years (…).

Original story: La Vanguardia 

Translation: Carmel Drake

S&P Increases Colonial’s Credit Rating to BBB+

18 October 2018 – Expansión

Standard & Poor’s has increased the rating assigned to Colonial from BBB to BBB+ within the investment grade category.

The credit agency has ruled out possible revisions of that rating by assigning a stable outlook for the company.

Colonial managed to increase its rating after reaching an agreement with Qatar, whereby the sovereign fund of that country became the company’s largest shareholder by acquiring 20% of its share capital through an exchange of shares.

By virtue of that operation, the Spanish Socimi consolidated its controlling position in its French subsidiary Société Foncière Lyonnaise (SFL), given that Qatar granted it the 22% stake that it owned in that company, allowing it to increase its share of the capital to 80%, in exchange for shares in the Spanish real estate company proceeding from a non-monetary capital increase.

S&P also reviewed Colonial’s rating upward after the Socimi completed the merger of another Socimi Axiare and closed the sale of a portfolio of offices owned by that company which did not fit with its business strategy.

Original story: Expansión 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Registrars: House Sales Exceeded 134,000 in Q2 2018

4 September 2018 – Expansión

The housing market is performing well, so much so that forecasts indicate that more than half a million house sales will be completed this year (…) whereby returning to pre-crisis levels.

During the second quarter of the year, 134,196 units were sold, up by 12.4% compared to the same quarter in 2017. That is the highest figure recorded in a second quarter since 2008, when 152,630 sales were registered, according to real estate statistics published yesterday by the College of Registrars.

The slight moderation in GDP growth, which is expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018, according to Government forecasts, has not prevented the real estate market from reaching cruising speed. Domestic demand, which is continuing to sustain the Spanish economy, is allowing for a reduction in the unsold stock of homes, thanks to the pull of large Spanish cities. The strong demand that is driving these figures is also having an impact on prices, which rose by 10.7% between April and June.

“The statistics are continuing to reflect the excellent performance of the sector”, said Ferran Font, Head of Research at Pisos.com, given that during the second quarter, the highest volume of transactions for 40 months was recorded.

The drivers of the increase in prices and demand relate to the increase in consumer confidence in the economy, which has boosted private consumption, and the greater weight of housing as an investment alternative, in a volatile environment where interest rates are low. This behaviour is feeding the forecasts of the experts, who expect 2018 to close with house sales of between 500,000 units, according to the ratings agency S&P, and 600,000, as predicted by the consultancy firm Jones Lang La Salle (JLL).

Nevertheless, the market is not evolving in a homogenous way. On the one hand, the sale of second-hand homes is driving the figures, accounting for 83% of total sales, whilst new build homes are more expensive. Thus, second-hand house sales between April and June recorded their highest figure since the middle of 2007, with 111,537 sales, up by 12.2% compared with Q2 2017. Although by volume there were significantly more second-hand house sales in Q2, it is also worth noting the growth rate of the sale of new build homes, which rose by 12.9% to reach 22,659 units sold.

In terms of prices, the situation is different. In general, new build homes are more expensive than second-hand homes. According to a report published by Pisos.com yesterday, the price of second-hand homes amounted to €1,612/sqm in August, up by 5.5% compared to a year ago.

By contrast, the price of new homes in Spain rose by 5.9% in June, according to data from Sociedad de Tasación. Nevertheless, that figure is skewed by the pull of the large capitals. “The average prices of new homes in Spain rose by 5.9%, but that figure decreases to 2.8% if we eliminate the impact of Madrid and Barcelona, which means that prices are in line with other fundamental factors of the Spanish economy”, indicate sources at Sociedad de Tasación.

The average price of a 90 sqm home in a provincial capital is around €205,600, whilst in the other cities, the average price amounts to €1,605/sqm, which represents a rise of 2.9% compared to 2017.

The Spanish market is still growing at several speeds, with the large cities acting as links in a chain pulling up prices and sales. Madrid, Barcelona and Alicante are the provinces where the most homes were sold during the second quarter (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Inma Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Cerberus Prepares for Haya’s Stock Market Debut After the Summer

9 February 2018 – Cinco Días

Metrovacesa achieved it on Tuesday, despite problems to cover supply and the nefarious stock market session that it suffered. The large Spanish property developer, which abandoned the equity market in May 2013, made its return last week. It hasn’t exactly eased the way for the upcoming debuts of Vía Célere, owned by the fund Värde, or the Socimi Testa. But it hasn’t made a total hash of it either.

In this way, the US fund Cerberus is in the process of contracting the banks that will handle the debut its Spanish real estate servicer subsidiary on the stock market. The aim is for that firm to be listed from September. The entities that are on the list of candidates have already done their calculations and are citing a valuation for the company, albeit preliminary, of around €1.2 billion. The aim is to place between 35% and 50% of Haya Real Estate’s capital at this stage. A spokesman for the company declined to comment on this information.

The company, which was created in October 2013, manages property developer loans and foreclosed real estate assets from Bankia, Sareb, Cajamar, Liberbank, BBVA and other financial institutions, worth €39.88 billion at the end of September 2017.

The process of going public is the logical next step, after Haya placed €475 million in high yield bonds in November, with ratings of B3 (Moody’s) and B- (S&P). In other words, in the junk bond range, six levels below investment grade.

The underwriters of that debt, which matures in 2022, were Santander, Bankia, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. And they sold it with considerable success. Despite its credit rating, the firm pays an annual return of just over 5% for that liability.

Haya, led by Carlos Abad Rico (formerly of Canal + and Sogecable) offers services across the whole real estate value chain, but it is not a property developer. Rather, it manages, administers, securitises (…) and sells real estate assets such as homes and offices, but it does not own any of the properties.

Bankia Habitat was the seedling of Haya, and it has grown in line with the need by the financial sector to get rid of assets linked to property. One of Haya’s key businesses is the management of loans linked to the real estate sector. It advises on loans and guarantees, recovers debt and converts loans into foreclosed real estate assets.

The other major part of its revenues stems from the recovery and management of properties through their sale or rental. Haya employs 680 professionals and has a sales network of 2,400 brokers. The value of its property developer debt portfolio amounts to €28.7 billion and its real estate asset portfolio amounts to €11.2 billion. Moreover, Haya is going to bid to manage the assets sold by BBVA to Cerberus in November. Haya’s current shareholder acquired 80% of the BBVA’s portfolio of real estate assets, amounting to around €13 billion, for €4 billion (…)

Consolidation

The Spanish banks’ other real estate management companies are waiting for Cerberus to make the first move, according to financial sources. Haya will open the door to the stock market for them if everything goes well or it will serve to consolidate the sector, both here and in Europe.

There are three high profile players on the list. Servihabitat, which manages assets amounting to around €50 billion and which belongs to the fund Texas Pacific Group (TPG), which has held a 51% stake since September 2013, when CaixaBank sold it that percentage; the bank still holds onto the remaining 49%. Altamira, owned by Santander (15%) and the fund Apollo (85%), which also handles assets worth around €50 million in Spain. The volume managed by Solvia, owned by Sabadell, amounts to around €31 billion.

Moody’s warns that the business of Haya Real Estate, the largest company in the sector in Spain, depends on the economic performance of the company and the renewal of its current management contracts. Specifically, one of the most important, with Sareb (…), signed in 2013, is due to expire in December next year.

In terms of its strengths, the ratings agency indicates Haya’s extensive knowledge of the market and its high margins. The firm’s gross operating profit (EBITDA) during the first nine months of last year amounted to €89.8 million, with net income (the amount really invoiced by the company) of €165.8 million.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Pablo Martín Simón and Laura Salces)

Translation: Carmel Drake

S&P Warns of Deceleration in Catalan Housing Market

7 February 2018 – El País

The Spanish real estate market is going to continue growing, but the Catalan crisis may have a negative effect on the housing market in the region. “Although Barcelona has recorded some of the highest property prices since the start of the recovery, in 2018, Cataluña could see a recession in its real estate market”. That is what the ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) thinks, according to its report about the real estate market in Europe, which indicates that “economic growth should continue to be strong this year and next, but the political uncertainty may have a more negative impact on companies and consumers. The main risk is the impact of the Catalan crisis, given that it is the largest economic centre in Spain, accounting for 20% of the country’s nominal GDP”.

Leaving aside Cataluña, the agency indicates that the strong economic conditions in Spain will continue to drive up the volume of house sales and will help to reduce the stock of homes. In fact, it forecasts that the volume of transactions in Spain will grow by around 8% this year.

Moreover, although interest rates bottomed out at the end of last year, they will continue at very attractive levels for house purchases. Nevertheless, the agency points out that accessibility ratios continue to be high, even though the number of years of salary needed to buy a home has decreased from 7.7 years at the height of the boom to 6.6. years in 2016. And it adds that second-hand house prices are going to continue to increase, although to a lesser extent that over the last two years.

The S&P agency considers that the Spanish economy will exceed the figures recorded in 2017, when average prices increased by 4.2% YoY in the last quarter, according to data from Tinsa. The city of Madrid exceeded Barcelona with an annual increase of 17% compared to 14.8% in the Catalan capital, where prices fell by 1.7% during the last three months of 2017. The volume of transactions amounted to 455,000 during the first 11 months of the year, compared with 375,000 in the previous year. Purchases by foreigners accounted for 17% of the total.

Original story: El País (by S. L. L.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Haya Real Estate Issues €475M In Guaranteed Bonds

10 November 2017 – Expansión

Debt market debut / The real estate and financial asset manager Haya Real Estate is reconfiguring its liabilities with its first bond issue

The real estate and financial asset manager Haya Real Estate, owned by the private equity fund Cerberus, has debuted on the debt market by placing €475 million in guaranteed senior bonds.

The operation has been divided into two tranches. The first, amounting to €250 million, has been placed at a fixed rate of 5.25% and the second (amounting to €225 million), has been placed at a variable rate, linked to three-month Euribor +5,125%. The floating coupon has a zero clause for Euribor in such a way that negative interest is not computed. Currently, three-year Euribor is at minimum levels of -0.32%. The firm guarantees the payment of these issues with shares in the company itself and its service contracts.

Haya Real Estate has been assigned a B- rating by S&P and a B3 rating by Moody’s, which means it is considered high yield. Market sources maintain that demand for the issue was equivalent to more than twice the amount awarded in the end. The strong investor appetite has allowed Haya Real Estate to increase the amount of the issue, given that initially, it was planning to raise €450 million. To bring the issue to a successful conclusion, the firm engaged the services of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Bankia and Santander.

Haya Real Estate will use the funds to repay a syndicated loan, to distribute a dividend to Cerberus, to hold onto cash and to pay the commissions and fees associated with the issue. In addition, it will return money that Cerberus lent it to acquire Liberbank’s real estate asset manager, for which it paid €85 million.

“Cerberus lent us the money until we were able to close the bond issue because the syndicated loan terms were more restrictive”, explained Bárbara Zubiría, Financial Director at the company.

Original story: Expansión (by Andrés Stumpf)

Translation: Carmel Drake

S&P: Banks Will Sell Off €35,000M In Toxic Assets In 2017

25 January 2017 – Cinco Días

S&P Global Ratings is convinced that there is going to be a new wave of M&A activity in the Spanish financial sector, as a result of the low return environment, which is putting downwards pressure on banks’ margins, and the rising regulatory costs.

The high volume of non-productive assets on the balance sheets of most entities is also having a negative impact on their accounts, which is pushing them towards mergers, said the Director General of Financial Institutions at S&P, Jesús Martínez, yesterday. The Director considers that these consolidation processes will help smaller entities improve their returns.

The Bank of Spain and most of the major financial institutions in Spain share this idea and are convinced that there will be a second round of mergers over the medium term. These mergers will join the one that Bankia and BMN are likely to complete in July.

In its forecasts for the year ahead, the ratings agency considers that the Spanish financial sector will be supported by the “robust” economic recovery that is happening in Spain at the moment, as well as by the improvements that are being seen in employment and in the real estate sector. It believes that the latter is key for the improvement of banks’ yields. In fact, it thinks that the banks will manage to considerably reduce the property they hold on their balance sheets this year, decreasing the balance from €183,000 million at the end of 2016 to around €148,000 in 2017.

This is the first time that the foreclosed asset balance will fall below its 2010 level (€175,000 million), according to data provided by S&P.

Non-productive assets in the Spanish banking sector peaked at €320,000 million in 2012 if we take into account the foreclosed assets that were transferred to Sareb by the nationalised bank. In 2016, the volume of foreclosed assets decreased by around €37,000 million, according to S&P. Between 2016 and 2017, the total decrease is expected to amount to around €70,000 million.

Nevertheless, the ratings agency warns that the sector will be affected by certain risks resulting from the crisis, such as the high volume of non-productive assets that the entities hold on their balance sheets, or the difficulties involved in increasing returns given the very low interest rates that are putting pressure on margins in the income statement.

Despite that, the agency considers that the banks may continue to offset this decrease in returns and the pressure on margins through the lower provisions that they are having to make, as a result of the reduction in non-productive assets, which is expected to continue over the next few years. S&P forecasts that the risk outlook for the financial sector will decrease, which will cause it to review its ratings. (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Ángeles Gonzalo Alconada)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Metrovacesa Refinances All Of Its Debt Ahead Of Its IPO

18 May 2016 – El Confidencial

Metrovacesa, the real estate company controlled by Santander, BBVA and Banco Popular, has managed to definitively emerge from the abyss into which it fell in 2009, when the then owner, the Sanahuja family, saw how the creditor banks enforced their guarantees for the €4,000 million that they were owed.

The company now chaired by Rodrigo Echenique, one of the strong men from the entity led by Ana Botín, has managed to reach an agreement with the creditor banks to refinance all of Metrovacesa’s financial commitments through bond issues and debt restructuring.

This week, the company will release €700 million in 6-year bonds onto the market with interest of 240 basis points. Once that test has been passed, Metrovacesa will restructure its remaining €1,100 million in financial commitments, an operation that may include another bond issue, now that it has received the ok from its creditor banks, with a similar term and margin.

With all of this homework done, the real estate company is completing an ambitious clean-up plan, which has led it to undertake: two capital increases in less than a year, for a total amount of €1,650 million; the carve out of its entire property development business into the recently created MVC Suelo; the sale of its logistics business; and a significant reorganisation of its shareholders, with Santander’s purchase of Bankia and Sabadell’s stakes, which allowed the Cantabrian entity to take over 70.27% of the group’s shares. (…).

Now, according to sources familiar with the company’s plans, once all of its debt has been restructured, Metrovacesa plans to return to the stock market, probably as a Socimi. Although no date has yet been set, they are working with a two year timeframe (…).

Proof of the good work done so far came in the form of the credit rating that the company obtained from the ratings agency S&P, which granted it a preliminary rating of BBB- and a stable long-term outlook, and Moody’s, which assigned it a Baa3 rating, also with a stable outlook. (…).

The resurgence of a giant

Following the carve out of its property development business, Metrovacesa has a portfolio of assets worth €4,300 million, primarily comprising office buildings for rent, although it also owns a sizeable package of shopping centres, a dozen hotels and more than 3,000 homes with a gross leasable area of more than 1.5 million sqm.

Those figures make it one of the giants of the reborn real estate business, alongside the Socimi Merlin, which led the return of property companies to the Ibex 35 following its acquisition of Testa, and Colonial, a mirror into which the company chaired by Echenique is looking to recover its past splendour and the only one of the large companies in the sector that has not converted itself into a Socimi, because the tax credits that it has eclipse the tax advantages of the new company structure.

Metrovacesa was excluded from the stock market in May 2013, after 72 years as a listed company and after seeing the creditor entities take control. Currently, Santander owns a 70.27% stake, BBVA a 20.52% stake and Popular a 9.14% stake. (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Ruth Ugalde)

Translation: Carmel Drake

S&P Confirms Merlin’s Investment Grade Rating

21 April 2016 – El Mundo

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has ratified the BBB rating that it assigned to Merlin Properties back in February, after the Socimi successfully closed its recent €850 million bond issue, according to reports from the company.

The ratings agency considers that Merlin’s investment grade reflects the “optimal risk profile” of the Socimi, which is further supported by a portfolio of property assets worth around €6,100 million.

The firm also assigns a stable outlook to the rating for the company led by Ismael Clemente, because it considers that its “large and diversified” property portfolio constitutes a “source of recurring revenue generation”.

“The assets are also well located, which allows the company to benefit from the recovery in the real estate sector that Spain is currently enjoying”, added the ratings agency.

The ratings firm has also assigned the same BBB rating to the €850 million bond issue that the Socimi recently placed. Through this operation, the company will restructure one tranche of the debt that it inherited from Testa when it acquired the company from Sacyr.

Moreover, S&P leaves the door open to a possible increase in Merlin’s rating, in the event that the Socimi adopts a “more conservative” financing policy, however it also warns of a downgrade in the event that its debt exceeds the threshold of 50% of the value of its assets.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake