Fotocasa: Second-Hand House Prices Rose by 8.4% YoY in March

10 April 2019 – El Confidencial

According to data from the real estate portal Fotocasa, second-hand house prices rose by 8.4% in the year to March 2019, the largest increase since 2007. The average price of a second-hand home now amounts to €1,900/m2, a figure not seen since November 2012.

The data shows that YoY prices recorded 30 months of consecutive increases in March, although a rise of more than 5% has not been seen for 16 months.

The price rises were led by 3 autonomous regions, in particular, which experienced double-digit rises, namely: Madrid (19%), the Balearic Islands (12.5%) and the Canary Islands (11.8%), but prices rose in 16 of the 17 regions. Asturias was the only region to experience a price decrease, of -0.03%.

On average, house prices are still 35.6% below their peak, which was recorded in April 2007 (€2,952/m2).

In terms of average prices, Madrid (€2,976/m2), País Vasco (€2,810/m2) and the Balearic Islands (€2,617/m2) were the most expensive autonomous regions to buy a second-hand home in March. By contrast, Extremadura was the cheapest region (€1,108/m2), followed by Castilla-La Mancha (€1,141/m2), Murcia (€1,164/m2) and La Rioja (€1,402/m2).

By province, 43 of the 50 provinces recorded positive quarterly price variations and seven registered inter-annual price variations of more than 10%, specifically: Madrid (19%), Alicante (15.6%), the Balearic Islands (12.5%), Málaga (12.4%), Las Palmas (12.1%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (11.4%) and Guadalajara (10.9%).

In Madrid Capital, 18 of the 21 districts saw price increases in March, led by Carabanchel (4%), Vicálvaro and Barajas (both 3.5%). Meanwhile, prices decreased in Chamartín (-3.3%), Latina and Usera (both -0.4%).

Meanwhile, in Barcelona, second-hand house prices rose in 5 of the 10 districts in March, led by Sants – Montjuïc (1.9%), Sarrià – Sant Gervasi (1.4%) and Gràcia (1.2%). The largest QoQ price decrease was recorded in Sant Martí (-1.1%).

Original story: El Confidencial (by E.S.)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

S&P Warns of Deceleration in Catalan Housing Market

7 February 2018 – El País

The Spanish real estate market is going to continue growing, but the Catalan crisis may have a negative effect on the housing market in the region. “Although Barcelona has recorded some of the highest property prices since the start of the recovery, in 2018, Cataluña could see a recession in its real estate market”. That is what the ratings agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) thinks, according to its report about the real estate market in Europe, which indicates that “economic growth should continue to be strong this year and next, but the political uncertainty may have a more negative impact on companies and consumers. The main risk is the impact of the Catalan crisis, given that it is the largest economic centre in Spain, accounting for 20% of the country’s nominal GDP”.

Leaving aside Cataluña, the agency indicates that the strong economic conditions in Spain will continue to drive up the volume of house sales and will help to reduce the stock of homes. In fact, it forecasts that the volume of transactions in Spain will grow by around 8% this year.

Moreover, although interest rates bottomed out at the end of last year, they will continue at very attractive levels for house purchases. Nevertheless, the agency points out that accessibility ratios continue to be high, even though the number of years of salary needed to buy a home has decreased from 7.7 years at the height of the boom to 6.6. years in 2016. And it adds that second-hand house prices are going to continue to increase, although to a lesser extent that over the last two years.

The S&P agency considers that the Spanish economy will exceed the figures recorded in 2017, when average prices increased by 4.2% YoY in the last quarter, according to data from Tinsa. The city of Madrid exceeded Barcelona with an annual increase of 17% compared to 14.8% in the Catalan capital, where prices fell by 1.7% during the last three months of 2017. The volume of transactions amounted to 455,000 during the first 11 months of the year, compared with 375,000 in the previous year. Purchases by foreigners accounted for 17% of the total.

Original story: El País (by S. L. L.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

College of Registrars Creates New CPI Indicator for RE Sector: the IRAI

4 December 2017 – El Confidencial

The recovery of the real estate sector is now a reality that nobody doubts. In fact, activity in the sector in Spain has been growing in a sustained way since 2014, far from the minimum levels of 2013, but also a long way from the peak heights. The volume of – new build and second-hand – transactions is rising; more mortgages are being granted; property prices are recovering; and new build permits are increasing. Moreover, the number of companies linked to the sector filing for creditor bankruptcy is also decreasing. Each one of these parameters has its own indicators proceeding from different sources (e.g. Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), real estate websites, appraisal companies, Ministry of Development…), that show the evolution of those specific parameters.

Nevertheless, from now on, there is going to be a new indicator that groups them all together and, through a complex weighting system, shows the overall evolution of activity in the real estate sector. This new indicator is the Real Estate Activity Registry Index (IRAI), compiled by the College of Registrars. According to its creators, it is set to be called the CPI of the real estate market, given that its preparation adopts a very similar methodology to that used by INE to measure inflation.

The indicator takes the year 2003 as the base year (100); it serves as the reference for analysing the evolution of real estate activity. In this way, for example, during the third quarter of this year, the IRAI amounted to 98.26% points, 30% below the maximum levels of 2007, the year the real estate bubble burst. During the first 3 months of that year, the index reached its maximum, 139.90 points. Nevertheless, since the historical minimum of 68, to which it fell in 2013, the sector has risen by 45% to date. Like in the case of CPI, the IRAI can be softened or purified to avoid seasonality, in which case, it amounts to 94.34 points.

This new index is a synthesis of different indicators. It includes real estate transactions, mortgage financing and, in addition to the above, another set of commercial activity indicators, such as the number of company constitutions, economic variables from filed annual accounts and bankrupt companies, in all cases relating to the construction and real estate sectors. For its launch, the College of Registrars has constituted a Committee of Experts, advisors from the college in each aspect listed above, who have been responsible for preparing the index and determining the weighting of each one of the indicators in the index. The IRAI will be prepared on a quarterly basis (…).

Evolution of the IRAI so far this year

The variation in the IRAI since January has been an increase of 10.12%, representing the cumulative impact of the ownership element (9.55%) and the commercial element (0.57%). In other words, the part corresponding to house sales and financing has pushed up the index by the most, compared to the boost from commercial activity. In December last year, the IRAI amounted to 89 points, compared to 98.26 now.

In this way, the groups with the greatest positive cumulative impact so far this year have been sales (cumulative impact of 6.98%) due to the significant rise in the number of sales (cumulative impact of 6.11%), especially of new and second-hand homes with growth rates of 31.87% and 27.06% and cumulative impacts of 1.19% and 4.14%, respectively.

Sales prices also grew by 3.74% (impact of 0.87%) with the price of second-hand homes having a greater impact (impact of 0.9% with a growth rate of 5.91%). Meanwhile, mortgages (cumulative impact of 2.56%) due to the significant increase in the number of mortgages (cumulative impact of 2.05%), especially for new and second-hand homes with growth rates of 21.65% and 15.42% and cumulative impacts of 0.92% and 0.94%, respectively.

From the commercial perspective, the greatest boost to activity has come from the decrease in the number of creditor bankruptcies involving both construction companies, which have decreased by 83%, and real estate companies, which have fallen by 57% (…).

Original story: El Confidencial

Translation: Carmel Drake

INE: House Prices Rose By 4.7% In 2016

8 March 2017 – Expansión

House prices rose by 4.7% on average in 2016 with respect to the previous year, their third consecutive annual increase following six years of decreases and the highest rise since 2007, according to the House Price Index (IPV) published today by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE).

By house type, second-hand house prices rose by 4.4% in 2016, to register their highest increase since 2007. In the case of new homes, average prices rose by 6.5% in 2016, also recording their highest rise since 2007.

During the fourth quarter of 2016, private (unsubsidised) house prices rose by 4.5% with respect to the same quarter in 2015, whereby increasing the YoY rise recorded in the third quarter (+4%) by half a point. In this way, house prices recorded eleven consecutive quarters of positive YoY variations.

New house prices rose by 4.3% in Q4 2016 compared to the fourth quarter in 2015, in other words, by three points less than during the previous quarter, whilst second-hand house prices rose by 4.5%, one point above the increase recorded in the previous quarter.

In inter-quarterly terms, private (unsubsidised) house prices rose by 0.4%, in other words, by four tenths less than in the previous quarter. Following this quarterly increase, house prices recorded four consecutive quarters on the rise.

House prices rose last year in every single one of Spain’s autonomous regions, as well as in the cities of Ceuta and Melilla. The most marked price increases were observed in Madrid (up by 8.6%), Cataluña (7%), the Balearic Islands (6.2%), Melilla (5.3%) and Ceuta (5.2%). On the other hand, the lowest increases were recorded in Castilla-La Mancha (0.8%) and Castilla y León (1.1%).

In quarterly figures, private (unsubsidised) house prices decreased in ten autonomous regions as well as in Melilla; they rose in four regions and in Ceuta; and they remained stable in Andalucía, Aragón and the Community of Valencia. The largest decreases were recorded in País Vasco (-1.6%) and Extremadura (-1.5%) and the greatest increases were seen in Madrid (+1.5%) and Cataluña (+1.2%).

Original story: Expansión

Translation: Carmel Drake

Second-Hand House Prices Have Fallen By 44.5% Since 2007

25 November 2015 – El Economista

Second-hand house prices in Spain have decreased by €105,999, on average, since they reached their maximums in April 2007, according to the latest analysis from the real estate portal fotocasa.es. It reports a cumulative price decrease of 44.5% since the start of the crisis, when the cost of buying a home measuring 80m2 amounted to €236,174, on average.

“Second-hand homes are driving up the real estate sector at the moment. In addition to the extensive supply, these homes are more attractive in terms of prices, since they allow more room for negotiation and they are levied with lower taxes”, says the Head of Research at fotocasa.es, Beatriz Toribio.

By autonomous region

In terms of the reduction in second-hand house prices by autonomous regions, Cataluña is the region where prices have decreased the most. Specifically, sales prices have decreased there by an average of €142 ,512 in eight years, which represents a decrease of 46.1%.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Extremadura is the autonomous region that has seen the lowest decrease in sales prices in recent years. There, the average reduction amounts to €59,745, after prices reached maximum in March 2007; this represents a decrease of 39.6%.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake