Second-Hand House Sales will Fall by 47% in 2020, According to Notegés

The consultancy firm expects 264,000 second-hand homes to be sold in 2020, which is 47% fewer than last year.

The Club Notegés network of real estate agents forecasts a 47% decrease in second-hand house sales this year, which would mean the sale of just 264,000 homes by the end of the year. In this context, José Luis Jimeno, Director General of the consultancy, predicts that there will be an increase in operations to 375,000 units in 2021, up by 42% compared to the forecast for 2020, but that figure would still be 25.04% lower than the actual sales registered in 2019.

The data shows that “if the lockdown is concluded before the end of May, then the sector will recover very slowly, with 30% of last year’s sales in June, 40% over the summer, 50% in September and 60% during the final quarter of the year ”.

Fotocasa: House Prices in Ibiza Cost 38% More Now Than in 2008

25 April 2019 – El Confidencial

Together with Madrid and Barcelona, the real estate market in the Balearic Islands has led the real estate recovery in recent years. Boosted by its geographical limitations (land for the construction of new homes is finite), the boom in tourist rents and the huge push from foreign demand (foreigners account for 30% of transactions), house prices have soared over the last four years to return to the levels of the bubble, and, in some cases, even higher.

Specifically, house prices in both Ibiza and Calvià are now higher than their historical peaks at the height of the previous cycle (up by 38% and 1.6%, respectively, compared to February 2008). That is according to data published by Fotocasa relating to second-hand homes, which reveals that the number of building permits being granted in the two municipalities has also returned to pre-crisis levels.

In fact, Ibiza is one of the most expensive cities in Spain for buying a home, after San Sebastián and Sant Cugat del Vallès, according to Engel & Völkers. Much of the rise in house prices on the island is due to the strong rise in demand, especially from overseas buyers, with Germans leading the ranking by nationality.

According to the College of Registrars, the Balearic Islands is the second most active autonomous region in Spain in terms of house sales with 13.41 sales per 1,000 inhabitants, outperformed only by the Community of Valencia with 15.88 and ahead of the Community of Madrid with 11.63. Moreover, it is the eighth most active province by absolute number of transactions.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Spaniards Hold onto their Homes for Almost 15 Years on Average

1 April 2019 – El Confidencial

On average, families and individuals in Spain own their homes for 14 years and 8 months, almost double the figure reported in 2009, a year after the burst of the real estate bubble. According to data from the College of Registrars, the average ownership period recorded in 2018 is the longest in the historical series and reflects the fact that purchase decisions nowadays are more prudent and less speculative.

Specifically, 70% of homeowners have not sold their home for almost fifteen years, whilst 80% have owned their homes for more than 8 years. Meanwhile, just 10% of homeowners buy and sell their home within five years.

Moreover, the data reveals that second-hand homes accounted for 82.5% of all transactions in 2018, compared with new homes, which accounted for the remaining 17.5%. At the height of the crisis, the two types were almost on a par. Both of these data are positive for the real estate sector as a whole because they are allowing more sustained growth.

The other major finding to emerge from the Registrars’ data relates to the economic effort that families have to make to buy a home. The mortgage payment over salary percentage was 29.7% in 2018, with higher rates in Madrid (35%) and Cataluña (33%). According to experts, that figure should not exceed 30% if households are to have enough to cover their other expenses. What’s more, the ideal percentage is between 20% and 25%.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Savills: House Sales will Exceed 500,000 Again in 2019

19 February 2019 – Voz Pópuli

For the first time since 2008, more than half a million homes were sold in Spain last year, and the good performance is expected to be replicated in 2019 with forecasts that between 500,000 and 600,000 homes will be sold.

The deceleration of the Spanish economy – which will move from growing at a rate of 2.5% in 2018 to around 2% this year – is not expected to prevent the residential sector from consolidating its growth, although the maximum levels recorded in 2007, when 775,300 operations were signed in the country, is not going to be repeated.

“We do not think that we will return to those figures. Staying at the sales levels seen over the last two years, of close to 550,000 units sold, will be an excellent result”, explained Arturo Díaz, Executive Director of the residential market at the consultancy firm Savills Aguirre Newman, speaking to Voz Pópuli.

He considers that this rate of growth is reasonable if we take into account the rate of household creation in the country, the levels of purchases for investment and the purchases for holiday homes (…).

The real estate consultancy CBRE agrees with this outlook (…). In fact, the firm is more ambitious with its forecasts as it expects 625,000 house sale operations to be closed in 2019, due to an increase in demand (…).

The growth profile

The main real estate consultancy firms all agree that there will be an increase in new build sales in 2019, in parallel to a slight decrease in the sales of second-hand homes, and so the gap between the two will begin to close.

Moreover, they confirmed that a change has taken place in terms of the profile of house buyers in Spain, with large international investors playing an increasingly greater role.

“Whilst a decade ago, demand for residential assets was dominated by domestic private families (individuals), nowadays, the market is characterised by investment vehicles, institutional funds and insurance companies – owned by foreign capital in many cases – the most active players in this segment”, said Lola Martínez Brioso, Head of Research at CBRE.

House prices in Spain rose by 8.2% in 2018, according to the Real Estate Statistics Registry from the College of Registrars, which means that they are still well below the peaks reached during the construction boom. In 2019, the sector expects the price rises to moderate (to around 4-5%) (…).

Although the price rises will be more moderate overall, there will be important differences by area (…). By region, the experts forecast that the large cities and their metropolitan areas will continue to lead the charge in terms of house price rises, specifically, Barcelona, Madrid, Málaga and the major municipalities in those areas.

Díaz also adds that “other large cities such as Valencia and Sevilla are starting to show a high level of activity”, along with certain holiday markets, “such as the Costa del Sol, Costa Blanca and Costa de la Luz, where the recovery in domestic demand, together with the appeal that those regions have for international buyers, is generating a high volume of purchasing activity”.

Original story: Voz Pópuli (by Alejandra Olcese)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Fotocasa: Second-Hand House Prices Record Their Highest Increase Since 2006

24 January 2019 – Expansión

Second-hand housing is continuing to spearhead growth in the residential market. Not only because it accounts for more than 80% of all house sale operations, but also because it is the segment where prices are increasing by the most.

The price of second-hand homes rose by 7.8% at the end of 2018, recording the highest increase in 13 years, since 2006, before the crisis, according to data published yesterday by Fotocasa. Taking into account the fact that the online portfolio started monitoring house prices in 2006, it is the largest annual increase in the historical series. Although the prices of second-hand homes have not stopped growing in month-on-month terms for 27 months – more than two years – in 2018, they rose at a rate never before seen.

The awakening of latent demand, investor appetite and the profitability of rental properties in the context of low interest rates explain why interest has returned to property purchases, with the consequent impact on prices”, explained Beatriz Toribio, Head of Research at Fotocasa.

Despite the increases, the average house price stands at €1,869/m2, the level last seen in 2013, when the residential sector had not yet started to recover. House prices peaked in April 2007, when the price per square metre reached €2,952/m2, 36.7% higher than it is now (…).

Even though prices are still well below their historic maximums, the evolution of the market varies by area. Although the increases were widespread across almost the whole country in 2018, Toribio explains that “the intensity of the increases is very different, and there are even areas where slight decreases were registered”. Madrid is the province where prices increased by the most, specifically, by 19.5%, followed by Las Palmas (13.8%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (12%), Alicante (11.3%), Barcelona (10.5%) and the Balearic Islands (10.4%).

The Spanish market continues to grow at various speeds, with large cities driving prices and sales. Guipúzcoa, Barcelona and Madrid are the most expensive provinces in Spain, with prices per square metre of more than €2,880/m2.

By contrast, the provinces that are suffering from depopulation and ageing demographics are recording significant price decreases (…). Toledo is not only the province that has recorded the largest decrease in prices since the peak (-55%), it is also the cheapest, with prices of €948/m2. It is followed by Ciudad Real, where second-hand homes are going for €990/m2.

Original story: Expansión (by I. Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Registrars: 400,000 Homes Sold During 9 Months to September 2018

16 November 2018 – Expansión

The housing market is showing a dynamism during 2018 not seen since the years before the crisis. The boost in demand in the last few months has resulted in the sale of almost 400,000 homes during the 9 months to September, the highest figure since 2008, which is driving prices up.

House sales amounted to 396,481 units between January and September, up by 12.5% compared to the same period in 2017, and the highest figure recorded since 2008, when 448,146 units were sold during the first 9 months to September, according to Real Estate Registry Statistics for the third quarter, published yesterday by the College of Registrars.

Data for the first nine months of the year also came close to the figure recorded for 2017 as a whole, bearing in mind that last year 464,223 transactions were closed in total. This year, it is likely that a record figure will be registered, which could reach half a million operations. During the third quarter, 133,295 operations were closed. “These results confirm the notable strength of the housing market (for sales)”, explained sources at the College of Registrars.

The strong dynamism responds in large part to the demand for investment. Buying a home for rent has become an alternative refuge for domestic and overseas investors alike, who find returns in the real estate market that other assets, such as deposits and public debt cannot offer. Moreover, during the last 12 months, the initial interest rate for taking out a mortgage has been at a historical low (2.27%).

The strong activity in the sector is also raising house prices, which increased by 6.7% in YoY terms in the last quarter. The recovery of the sector has allowed prices to rise to 26.5% above their minimum levels. Over the next few months, the registrars expect prices to continue to evolve in line with their current performance, albeit at single-digit rates. The rises will be greater in the main capitals.

These increases are being favoured by the heating up of the sector in certain areas. The largest increases during the third quarter were recorded in Teruel (37%), Huelva (34.8%) and Castellón (33.8%), but Madrid, Barcelona and Málaga led the activity in the market in absolute terms, with 20,048 homes sold in the case of Madrid, 14,217 in Barcelona and 9,828 in Málaga (…).

Foreigners are buying more homes than ever in Spain. According to data from the General Council of Notaries, during the first half of the year, they closed 53,359 operations, the highest absolute figure in the historical series, which began at the start of 2007.

By segment, second-hand homes continue to account for the majority of the market, with 82.4% of sales, compared with 17.57% for new homes (…).

Sources at the College of Registrars detect a possible “scenario that is running out of steam following the intense upward path that has been seen over the last few quarters”, and they warn that we “may have reached a maximum point in the current cycle in terms of the number of house sales”.

That is partly due to the increase in prices, which “is not sustainable or desirable in the current economic situation”. The intense double-digit growth in prices seen in recent months “cannot be borne by a market comprising potential buyers whose incomes cannot absorb such an intense increase in prices”.

But they clarify that it does not mean that we are going to see a correction (reduction) in prices in YoY terms, rather that we can expect more moderate increases (…).

Original story: Expansión (by I. Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Anticipa: House Prices in Madrid & Barcelona Return to their Peaks of the Real Estate Boom

11 November 2018 – El Confidencial

The (real estate) recovery is really heating up. House prices in Madrid are on the verge of returning to their peaks of 2007. What seemed impossible, is now becoming a reality. That is according to a report from Anticipa Real Estate, which forecasts two-digit increases in house prices in the Spanish capital this year and next. Specifically, it predicts that homes will become more expensive by 10.2% in 2018 and by 11.5% in 2019, rises that are twice as high as the percentages that experts consider to be sustainable.

House prices have already been growing at rates of 10% during the last two quarters, according to the Repeated Sales House Price Index, prepared in accordance with the Case & Shiller methodology from the United States applied to Spain, which analyses repeat sales of the same homes. In other words, they are rising at double-digit percentages reminiscent of those recorded at the height of the real estate boom a decade ago.

Despite that, both property developers and banks are insisting that the market is very different to the one seen more than ten years ago and they categorically rule out that we are facing a similar situation to then. On the one hand, access to financing remains very restricted for solvent clients, whilst the recovery in prices is very uneven across the country. Whilst in the cities (and in certain neighbourhoods), prices are skyrocketing, in others, prices are still decreasing.

Although on average, by the end of 2019, house prices in Spain will be 15% below the peaks recorded in 2007, according to the report from Anticipa Real Estate, there are some hot spot areas where those prices have already been exceeded. In Cataluña, another of the hot spots in the Spanish market, increases of around 9% are expected next year and that despite the delicate political situation in Cataluña, which has had a direct negative impact on the real estate market – in Barcelona -, which, until a year ago, was performing extremely well in terms of transactions and prices.

Madrid stands out from the rest of Spain, with an evolution in terms of residential prices that has caused the first alarm bells to start sounding. In certain neighbourhoods, such as Chamartín, Chamberí and Salamanca, second-hand homes now cost the same as they did ten or twelve years ago, whilst in others such as Arganzuela, Centro, Moncloa and Tetúan, prices are close to exceeding those levels. In others, where prices are still well below their peaks of the bubble, the market is rising at rates of 20%, rapidly reducing the gap with respect to 2008.

They are peripheral areas of the city towards which price rises are moving like an oil slick. And that is because prices, both to the purchase and rental markets in the centre of the city have reached such prohibitive levels that much of the demand is moving en masse to more affordable areas, resulting in significant upward pressure on prices.

According to the latest data from Tinsa, in Vicálvaro, Ciudad Lineal and Villaverde, house prices have risen by more than 20% in the last year, compared with rises of 8.5% in Chamartín and 13% in the district of Salamanca. Meanwhile, the municipalities of Barcelona, such as L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Castelldefels, Esplugues de Llobregat and Sabadell, are experiencing a similar phenonemon with increases of more than 15% (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Zaragoza Leads the Sale of New Build Homes in Spain

5 November 2018 – El Periódico de Aragón

Zaragoza is still leading the sales of new build homes in Spain. Last year, it was the third-ranked city in the country, after Madrid and Barcelona, in terms of sales volumes, with 800 transactions, and in 2018, it is maintaining that trend. In fact, during the second quarter of the year, the Aragonese capital recorded the sale of 305 new homes, exceeded only by Madrid. That is according to the latest report compiled by the real estate consultancy firm CBRE, which shows that the evolution of Zaragoza this year is even better than last year: 537 new build house sales were recorded during the first half of this year, and so all indications are that they will exceed the 800 units recorded in 2017.

According to the experts, pent-up demand during the years of the crisis, which forced many citizens to postpone their decision to buy a home due to the economic uncertainty, and the current supply of high-quality homes for sale at reasonable prices, are the main causes behind Zaragoza’s leadership of the sector.

Of course, the data is still light years away from the figures recorded before the crisis. “There is still a long way to go in the new build construction market”, said the Director of CBRE in Zaragoza, Miguel Ángel Gómez. During the peak of the real estate boom, 4,000 sales were recorded per quarter in Aragón, and 45% of those were in the new build segment, but that percentage has now dropped to 12%. The figures confirm that the reactivation of the sector is based almost exclusively on second-hand homes. “The supply of second-hand homes is enormous, for that reason, as property developers we have to offer a differentiated, high-quality product if we want to attract customers”, said the President of the Confederation of Construction Companies of Aragón (CEAC) and the Director General of the Lobe group, Juan Carlos Bandrés.

Data relating to the number of building permits that the Town Hall of Zaragoza is granting confirms the new build recovery: last year, 1,526 permits were granted, compared with 1,040 in 2015. This year, it seems that the number of permits granted is decreasing although we still have two months of the year left to run. Either way, the figure is well below the 3,150 recorded in 2009 and light years away from the 8,940 registered in 2006.

The experts also attribute the better performance of Zaragoza compared to other major cities in Spain to the fact that the community has managed to maintain “its own financial system” (Ibercaja), which continues to back the projects of property developers. “Here, there are more possibilities to take projects forward”, highlights Bandrés (…).

Original story: El Periódico de Aragón (by Rubén López)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Tinsa: House Prices Rose by 15.6% YoY in Madrid in Q3

9 October 2018 – ABC

Whilst most Spanish provincial capitals have reached what the experts define as “a turning point” with the stabilisation of house prices, Madrid is still the most dynamic city in the whole country. It is leading the house price rises once again with increases of 15.6% in Q3 with respect to the third quarter of last year. That rise in value reflects the tensions that demand for homes in the Spanish capital is exerting on certain areas. The scarce supply of new build homes is not helping to balance a panorama where the pressure on house prices is now moving towards the peripheral neighbourhoods. Some areas are recording price increases of more than 20%, well above those seen even in the traditionally most sought-after districts. All of the districts, without exception, have seen an increase in their price per square metre. Of the 21, only three saw price rises in the single-digits – Usera, Chamartín and Villa de Vallecas-. In this context, the average price in the Spanish capital now amounts to €2,876/m2.

That is according to the latest local market report on finished housing – new and second hand – published by the appraisal company Tinsa at the end of the third quarter. In it, Madrid ranks as the third most expensive provincial capital to buy a home after Barcelona (€3,383/m2) and San Sebastián (€3,151/m2), both with more discrete YoY growth rates. Despite the warning that the consecutive increases generate, a priori, the capital is still a long way from the maximums that it reached in the third quarter of 2007 (27.6% lower), which marked the start of the crisis. The real estate situation has changed little since the middle of the year, although the trends that some experts, such as Pedro Soria, Commercial Director at Tinsa, were indicating in June have been confirmed: high prices in the city centre are pushing buyers to focus outside of the M-30.

The furore to purchase properties is still defined by a striking fact: it only takes 2.6 months to sell a property in Madrid at the moment. That period is still the lowest in Spain, even though it increased by one tenth with respect to the second quarter. Even with property developer activity below what the sector considers healthy for the real estate sector, demand for second-hand products is extremely high. And it is not exactly a favourable scenario for buyers. One piece of evidence that a major problem is starting to emerge in terms of access to housing in the capital is in the financial effort that families are having to make to live in Madrid. This has exceeded what is considered to be the “sustainable” limit. Those that have purchased a home in the last quarter are having to spend 26.1% of their gross household income (before taxes and other deductions) to service the first year of their mortgages. The national average stands at 17.2%. The experts consider that the red line, which has always recommended spending no more than one quarter of a household’s income on the mortgage, is now being passed. In districts such as Arganzuela, which has become one of the most attractive areas of the capital, household’s financial efforts now amount to 27.6% and the figure reaches 41.5% in the case of Salamanca neighbourhood. Once again, house prices in that area are the most expensive in Spain, at €4,762/m2. Chamberi is ranked in third place, after the Barcelona neighbourhood of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, with €4,521/m2 (…).

The most expensive municipalities

The municipalities that generate the most interest include Pozuelo de Alarcón, which registers the highest price of €3,017/m2, followed by Alcobendas, at €2,847/m2 and Majadahonda, at €2,537/m2. By contrast, the municipalities of Arroyomolinos and Aranjuez registered the lowest prices: €1,337/m2 and €1,446/m2, respectively, of those analysed by the appraisal company (…).

Original story: ABC (by Adrián Delgado)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Registrars: House Sales Exceeded 134,000 in Q2 2018

4 September 2018 – Expansión

The housing market is performing well, so much so that forecasts indicate that more than half a million house sales will be completed this year (…) whereby returning to pre-crisis levels.

During the second quarter of the year, 134,196 units were sold, up by 12.4% compared to the same quarter in 2017. That is the highest figure recorded in a second quarter since 2008, when 152,630 sales were registered, according to real estate statistics published yesterday by the College of Registrars.

The slight moderation in GDP growth, which is expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018, according to Government forecasts, has not prevented the real estate market from reaching cruising speed. Domestic demand, which is continuing to sustain the Spanish economy, is allowing for a reduction in the unsold stock of homes, thanks to the pull of large Spanish cities. The strong demand that is driving these figures is also having an impact on prices, which rose by 10.7% between April and June.

“The statistics are continuing to reflect the excellent performance of the sector”, said Ferran Font, Head of Research at Pisos.com, given that during the second quarter, the highest volume of transactions for 40 months was recorded.

The drivers of the increase in prices and demand relate to the increase in consumer confidence in the economy, which has boosted private consumption, and the greater weight of housing as an investment alternative, in a volatile environment where interest rates are low. This behaviour is feeding the forecasts of the experts, who expect 2018 to close with house sales of between 500,000 units, according to the ratings agency S&P, and 600,000, as predicted by the consultancy firm Jones Lang La Salle (JLL).

Nevertheless, the market is not evolving in a homogenous way. On the one hand, the sale of second-hand homes is driving the figures, accounting for 83% of total sales, whilst new build homes are more expensive. Thus, second-hand house sales between April and June recorded their highest figure since the middle of 2007, with 111,537 sales, up by 12.2% compared with Q2 2017. Although by volume there were significantly more second-hand house sales in Q2, it is also worth noting the growth rate of the sale of new build homes, which rose by 12.9% to reach 22,659 units sold.

In terms of prices, the situation is different. In general, new build homes are more expensive than second-hand homes. According to a report published by Pisos.com yesterday, the price of second-hand homes amounted to €1,612/sqm in August, up by 5.5% compared to a year ago.

By contrast, the price of new homes in Spain rose by 5.9% in June, according to data from Sociedad de Tasación. Nevertheless, that figure is skewed by the pull of the large capitals. “The average prices of new homes in Spain rose by 5.9%, but that figure decreases to 2.8% if we eliminate the impact of Madrid and Barcelona, which means that prices are in line with other fundamental factors of the Spanish economy”, indicate sources at Sociedad de Tasación.

The average price of a 90 sqm home in a provincial capital is around €205,600, whilst in the other cities, the average price amounts to €1,605/sqm, which represents a rise of 2.9% compared to 2017.

The Spanish market is still growing at several speeds, with the large cities acting as links in a chain pulling up prices and sales. Madrid, Barcelona and Alicante are the provinces where the most homes were sold during the second quarter (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Inma Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake