Tag: scarcity

Savills: Logistics Investment in Spain to Grow by 40% in 2018

20 November 2018 – Expansión

Real estate investment in the logistics market is on the verge of breaking a new record. According to data from the consultancy firm Savills Aguirre Newman, investment in the segment is going to exceed €1.2 billion in 2018, which will represent growth of 40% compared to the €854 million registered last year.

During the first nine months of this year alone, investment exceeded €875 million, without taking into account any corporate operations, which represents a 3% increase with respect to the total volume recorded during the whole of 2017.

“The intense level of activity at the national level in the market for land, by both funds and by end users, is going to continue until the end of the year”, explained sources at Savills Aguirre Newman.

In this sense, although the most sought-after product in the investment market is still the highest-quality and best-positioned warehouses, investors are also analysing spaces with the potential to be transformed and the capacity to offer higher returns.

Product shortage

Sources at the consultancy firm explain that, in light of the shortage of products in Madrid and Barcelona, the secondary markets have become a focus of attention for investors. Similarly, the scarcity in terms of finished products has reactivated interest in the market for land.

In terms of the volume of space leased, 1,127,000 m2 was snapped up in the markets in Madrid and Barcelona to September, which represents an increase of 22% with respect to the same period in 2017.

Original story: Expansión (by R.A.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

BNP Paribas Real Estate: 85,500 m2 of Office Space was Leased in Barcelona in Q1 2018

24 May 2018 – Eje Prime

During the first quarter of 2018, 85,500 m2 of office space was leased in Barcelona and its area of influence, which represents 33% more than the quarterly average for the last 10 years (64,445 m2) and 5% more than the quarterly average for the last three years, according to research compiled by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

“The strong performance in terms of demand between January and March 2018 reflects the fact that the occupational market remains dynamic”, states the report.

During the first three months of the year, 84 new contracts were signed in total, below the quarterly average for the number of operations signed in the last three years (93), however, these contracts involved larger surface areas, thanks to expansions and the creation of new companies.

The three largest operations closed during the quarter were located in the decentralised and peripheral areas, specifically in the BCN Fira District multi-functional complex (6,467 m2), El Prat de Llobregat (5,000 m2) and Cornellá (4,863 m2).

The 22@ district retained its appeal, in fact, the fourth most significant operation, the rental of 3,500 m2 by the Town Hall of Barcelona, was signed in that district. In total, 28% of the surface area leased during the first quarter was located in 22@ and the district is expected to attract more demand, as new office spaces come onto the market. The availability rate of the market in Barcelona amounts to 10%.

The average rental price in the Barcelona market also continued its upward trend. Prime rents, which closed 2017 at €23.5/m2/month, had risen to €24/m2/month by March 2018. Behind that behaviour is the shortage of surface area available in the CBD as well as the scarcity of high-quality buildings.

Original story: Eje Prime 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Property Developer Impulsa Buys Land in Madrid for €130M

18 May 2018 – Expansión

The property developer group Impulsa Proyectos Inmobiliarios has purchased the last portfolio of buildable land available in Las Colinas de Rivas Vaciamadrid for €130 million. Specifically, the group has completed the purchase of four residential use plots with a buildable surface area of 55,000 m2 where it plans to build 375 detached family homes distributed over four developments.

The first development, which will contain 137 three- and four-bedroom units, is already on the market. Construction on the project, which is being financed by Banco Santander, is expected to begin imminently. The sales process has been managed by Colliers International, as the financial advisor, and Ashurst, as the legal advisor.

“Whilst Madrid is experiencing a period of paralysis due to the scarcity of residential land, the south-east of the capital is establishing itself”, he explained.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Foro Consultores: Land Prices Soar In Certain Pockets Of Madrid

13 February 2017 – El Confidencial

Land prices are soaring, house prices are rising, the buying frenzy is gaining momentum in some areas and in certain developments…Is history repeating itself? Are we witnessing the gestation of a new real estate bubble, albeit not on a national scale, but nevertheless in certain areas of the country. That is what seems to be happening in some neighbourhoods of Madrid. But, the answer, for the time being at least, seems unanimous: not yet.

Buildable land, in other words, land that is ready to be built upon, is running out and, across Spain, there is barely enough land left upon which to construct the 1.5 million homes estimated to be required to supply the market for the next 8.6 years. In Madrid, the land will run out in just over 6 years, according to the latest report from the appraisal company Tinsa. It identifies a worrying shortage of this type of land in areas of expansion to the north of Madrid, as well as in certain specific points of the metropolitan area, such as Pozuelo, Villanueva de la Cañada, Coslada and Rivas. In some of these areas, according to warnings from Tinsa, there will be no buildable land left within 12-24 months. This situation has, unsurprisingly, led to sharp increases in land prices in certain areas. And these rises are concerning the sector. Where are these first warning signs starting to sound?

Valdebebas

The large real estate development in the north of Madrid, which was launched at the height of the crisis and which has fallen victim to numerous legal setbacks, has become, in the eyes of the residential sector, a clear example of the extent to which land can become a very sought-after, as well as a very dangerous, asset.

“Without doubt, it is one of the areas where land prices have grown significantly. In 2014, they ranged between €750/m2 and €900/m2, whereas nowadays operations are being closed for more than €1,200/m2 and €1,300/m2, and the perception in the market is that land can no longer be sold for less than €1,400/m2”, explained Vicente Quintanilla, Director of the department for Investment and Land at Foro Consultores. According to this expert, “this trend generates significant tension in terms of the prices of new builds, which are being sold for €3,000/m2 in certain developments”. (…).

Pozuelo, Aravaca…

Another market where prices have also risen significantly is the municipality of Pozuelo de Alarcón, where Sareb sold land for around €1,000/m2. (…).

Indeed, the supply of land in Pozuelo has completely run out and families in need of homes are heading to other markets, such as in Boadilla del Monte, a cheaper alternative. According to data from Foro Consultores, the gap in prices is very significant. “To give you an idea, a family home or chalet in Boadilla costs around €450,000 on average, compared with between €700,000 and €1 million in Pozuelo.

Scarce and sought-after plots of land have also seen sharp price increases in recent years. “In El Camino de Barrial, in Aravaca, land prices have risen from €1,200/m2 in 2014 to around €2,000/m2 now. (….).

Boadilla del Monte, at boiling point

Boadilla del Monte is another one of the markets that has experienced a huge boom over the last two years. And there, it has not been due to the scarcity of land, but rather because of the strong demand from families who, as described above, cannot find homes in Pozuelo de Alarcón.

“For family home plots, land prices have increased from €400-500/m2 in 2014 to €800-900/m2 in2016, say Foro Consultores. (…).

Euphoria in Méndez Álvaro and rises in El Cañaveral

In the heart of the capital, where land is noteworthy due to its absence, land prices have increased considerably. In 2014, buyers paid €1,000/m2 and in a recent operation, whereby Adif and Renfe sold a plot to Vía Célere, the price paid amounted to around €1,900/m2. (…).

This increase in land prices is not exclusive to the area to the north of Madrid (…). The price of more affordable land and cheaper homes has also risen significantly in recent months.

Such is the case of El Cañaveral, in the east of Madrid, where “last summer, land prices amounted to around €360-370/m2 and now plots are going for €450-500/m2” (…).

Finally, all of the experts lament the fact that during the crisis, no agreement was reached to manage land, which has resulted in this significant shortage and in the inevitable increase in prices. They advocate greater agility in terms of urban planning, especially where the shortage is leading to a bottleneck in the market.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

What’s In Store For The Housing Market In 2017?

28 December 2016 – Cinco Días

“The real estate market can look forward to a new smooth and long expansionary cycle”. That is the consensus of the majority of analysts who have spent the past few days preparing their end of year report and forecasts for next year. Although the forecast figures are unlikely to coincide exactly, the fact is that the trend is unanimous. Provided there are no major macroeconomic changes, in other words, provided employment continues to grow and interest rates continue to remain a minimum levels, all of the experts consulted, be they property developers, construction companies, intermediaries such as the API, notaries, registrars, appraisal companies or bankers, agree that: 2017 will be better than 2016.

This does not mean that there are no clouds on the horizon. For the consultancy firm Knight Frank, the main risk is the political context at home and, to a lesser extent, overseas. “During the months when there was a caretaker Government, many projects were frozen; now the main uncertainty is whether the new Govenrment will manage to approve the budgets”, said Ernesto Tarazona, Managing Partner of Residential and Land at Knight Frank.

In this way, provided there aren’t any new political upheavals, 2017 will be the year in which more homes are sold and constructed and at higher prices. In terms of production, experts calculate that if this year around 70,000 new homes are going to be finished, then next year that figure should increase to around 100,000. Meanwhile, in terms of transaction volumes, next year could be the first year since 2008 when we see more than half a million homes being sold once again, according to Tinsa.

On the other hand, the forecasts vary the most when it comes to house prices, with predicted increases ranging from 2% to 5%. The VI Observatory of the sector, compiled by the Spanish Association of Value Analysis (AEV), together with the Head of the Applied Economics Department at the University of Alicante, Paloma Taltavull, and a group of 21 experts states that the evolution of house prices will be contained due to two essential factors: the stock that still needs to be sold or leased, of which they calculate that 25% is owned by the banks; and the weakness in terms of demand that still persists across the majority of the country. In the opinion of these experts, prices will end this year with nominal increases of around 3.8%, and will continue to rise by around 3% in 2017. Other sources, such as Bankinter, raise that percentage to 5%, due to the booms currently happening in the real estate markets in Madrid and Barcelona, where house prices are rising at double-digit rates given the scarcity of supply of new homes.

What all of the experts seem to have rejected is that the market may generate a new bubble over the medium term, given that: house sales are growing in a sustainable way, in line with new mortgages; and they are doing so in regions with the greatest economic activity and highest levels of job creation. Moreover, the recovery in terms of the promotion of new homes will act as a buffer to prevent one-off price spikes amounting to anything more. (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Aguirre Newman: RE Inv’t In Barcelona Amounts To €2,500M In 2016

19 December 2016 – La Vanguardia

The real estate market in Barcelona is on course to break records again this year. It is expected to end 2016 with total investment operations amounting to €2,500 million, compared with €1,978 million last year, according to data presented by the real estate consultant Aguirre Newman on Thursday.

2016 will also be a “historical” year for Spain as a whole, with investment figures once again exceeding the level recorded in 2007, the year before the outbreak of the crisis. Investment operations worth almost €14,000 million are forecast to be closed.

Cataluña accounts for 20% of Spain’s total investment in this sector, although that figure is set to increase to 25% in 2017, given the significant potential of Barcelona.

The Director General of Aguirre Newman in Barcelona, Anna Gener, explained that; demand in Barcelona is still very active; there is still a lack of available land for sale; international demand is very active; and the real estate market is regarded as an attractive sector for investment.

Of the total investment volume expected this year, €860 million correspond to offices, down by 2.8% compared to last year, given that 2015 was a year of “blossoming”, when several major corporate operations were recorded after years of crisis.

The residential market will reach €120 million this year, shopping centre investment will amount to €865 million, retail investment will reach €100 million and investment in the industrial sector will amount to €144.1 million, up by 61%, due to the scarcity of land.

Around 80% of the investment volume has been made by international buyers; and domestic investors “are back again” after years away, according to Hipólito Sánchez, Director of Investments.

57% of the investments were made by funds, 26% by Socimis, 10% by private equity firms, 3% by institutional investors and 2% by insurance companies.

The leasing of office space continues to be a very active market; the availability rate has been decreasing since 2012 and now stands at 9.9%.

Construction activity is continuing to recover, with a 40% increase in the number of new construction permits compared to 2016.

The average price of free (unsubsidised) housing increased by 9% in Barcelona this year and by 4.5% across Cataluña. There was also a great deal of interest in renovation projects and in changes of building use status towards high standing residential properties in the centre of Barcelona, where more than 60% of buyers are foreign. (…).

The retail sector has continued to receive interest from investment funds and private equity firms in the main areas of the centre of Barcelona.

La Diagonal has established itself as an area of expansion following its renovation, with a 30% increase in rental income in just two years and the opening of megastores by certain brands, such as Massimo Dutti, Zara, Uniqlo and H&M.

The most important operation in the shopping centre sector was the sale of Diagonal Mar to Deutsche Bank for €495 million.

Another sector that continued to attract investors was logistics, whose investment volume increased by 60% with respect to last year, due to the shortage of land. (…).

The hotel sector has also continued to perform very well, given that prices per room have increased, thanks in part to the fact that there are no new competitors.

The forecasts for 2017 indicate that the real estate sector will continue to attract international investors, demand will continue to be very active, and products will continue to be scarce, although prices are not predicted to rise by very much.

Original story: La Vanguardia

Translation: Carmel Drake

Property Developers Search For Buildings To Refurbish

3 May 2016 – Cinco Días

For the third year in a row, 2015 closed with an increase in the number of building permits, although the level of housing construction is still a long way below that recorded at the height of the boom. So great is demand in places like Madrid that investors/property developers are now allocating almost one out of every five euros to the acquisition of buildings in the centre of the capital for renovation and whereby bringing more new homes onto the market in prime areas.

The slight slowdown in construction detected by the Bank of Spain during the first quarter of the year does not seem to be affect real estate activity that much, but does affect other sub-sectors. In fact, the main market indicators show how the pull of demand for housing is continuing to strengthen and how that has driven the launch of new developments. Above all in places where most of the stock has now been absorbed and there is none left, or the surplus that remains unsold does not match what buyers are looking for.

A recent study compiled by the consultancy firm Knight Frank also shows how the recovery in housing has reduced auto-promotion, or the construction of homes by cooperatives, in favour of traditional property developers by 8%, and the banks have played an important role in the phenomenon as they have started to finance the most solvent developers with the most robust projects once again.

Nevertheless, although it might seem like the real estate business has returned to the high road once again, the fact is that the recovery has only fully arrived in certain, very specific enclaves and one of them is Madrid, and it has done so in a nuanced way and at different speeds.

“Madrid is the most sought-after area for investors in search of residential products, specifically, it receives 19% of all real estate investment. Andalucía, Valencia and Cataluña are the following most popular autonomous regions, accounting for 16%, 15% and 14% of total investment, respectively” says the report. (…).

And, in the meantime, the appetite to buy homes in the prime areas of the major cities is such that investors and property developers are starting to opt mainly to buy buildings that need refurbishing in the centre of cities, to then bring new homes onto the market that better suit the demands of buyers. In 2015, investment in entire buildings accounted for 19% of the total, whilst land purchases represented 81%.

Type of home

(…). In general, the typical buyer profile nowadays is a family with medium to medium-high purchasing power, looking for a home to reposition or improve the one they currently own “in locations with services, transport, urbanisations with common areas and quality in the design of the materials and finishes”. Thus, the most sought-after product is now a three-bedroom house, with an average price of between €230,000 and €450,000.

Does the market in Madrid offer that product in sufficient quantity so as to not generate perverse tensions in terms of prices? The conclusion of the study by the aforementioned consultancy firm is….that the supply is still insufficient. The municipality of Madrid has around 3,000 new homes registered as available. Only 30% of those are located inside the M-30, where the scarcity of land is most acute and prices are highest. 20% are located in the area between the two main ring roads (the M-30 and the M-40) and the remaining 50% are in the PAUs and new developments, some of which are located beyond the M-40. Demand for housing is distributed in a relatively similar way, which according to Knight Frank avoids major imbalances between supply and demand (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Azca & Diagonal: The Most Sought-After Office Space In Spain

17 July 2015 – Expansión

According to the consultancy firm JLL, the scarce supply and improving economy will cause office rental prices in Madrid and Barcelona to rise by more than anywhere else in the EMEA region over the next five years.

Specifically, the consultancy expects that office rents will rise in Madrid by 6.2% each year on average, from €25/m2/month in 2014 to €34.5/m2/ month in 2019. Meanwhile, rents in Barcelona will increase by 5.3% per year, to €23/m2/ month by the end of 2019. The highest rents will be seen in the prime areas, i.e. in the central business districts: Azca in Madrid and Avenida Diagonal (between Francesc Macia and Maria Cristina) in Barcelona.

In fact (…) prices in Barcelona will not only rise on Diagonal, they will also increase on Paseo de Gracia. Overall, rents increased by 6% in Q2 2015 in Barcelona, to reach €19/m2/month on average in those two areas.

According to JLL, only 15,000 m2 of office space is currently available on the best section of Diagonal, out of a stock of around 275,000 m2 in that area, which represents an availability rate of around 5%, a figure not seen since 2008.

In fact, between 2010 and 2011, large companies such as Axa, Unilever and KPMG decided to leave the business district and move to more peripheral areas. Axa left ‘La Illa’ to move to WTC Almeda Park in Cornella, where it rents 9,000 m2; KPMG was the pioneer in moving to the new Plaza Europa business district in 2010, where it rents 6,000 m2 in Torre Realia BCN. And in 2011, Unilever moved to the Viladecans Business Park, where it rents 7,000 m2. (…).

More office space is available in Madrid: up to 46,458 m2. Moreover, that figure is expected to increase to almost 108,000 m2 in the next two years, as almost 23% of the total surface area of 475,784 m2 in the area becomes available. (…). This is partly due to BBVA’s upcoming move to its new headquarters in the neighbourhood of Las Tablas – the bank currently occupies the building at Castellana, 81, where it will leave a space measuring 24,000 m2, which is expected to become available in Spring 2016. Furthermore, KPMG is going to move from Torre Europa (pictured above) to Torre Cristal (in the Cuatro Torres complex) and will free up around 21,000 m2 of space at Castellana 89 from next year. Finally, space will become available in Torre Ederra (Castellana, 77), recently acquired by GMP, which is going to undertake a complete renovation of the property, to be completed at the beginning of 2017.

Until then, 9.9% of the total office space in Madrid is immediately available. Most is located in Torre Titania (on Calle Raimundo Fernández Villaverde, 65), which accounts for 34% of the available space. The remainder is spread across other office buildings in the area, including the Masters I and II buildings (Calle General Perón, 38), the Mapfre building (Calle General Perón, 40) and the Alfredo Mahou building (Plaza Manuel Gómez Moreno, 2). (…).

Original story: Expansión

Translation: Carmel Drake