Tag: regional elections

Demand for Luxury Homes Plummets in Barcelona & Soars in Madrid

23 November 2017 – Expansión

Since 1 October, demand for luxury homes has plummeted by 50% in Barcelona, with a 20% decrease in prices; meanwhile, demand has risen by 40% in the Spanish capital where prices have gone up by 10%.

Secessionism is sinking the Catalan real estate market due to the threat of uncertainty. “Demand for luxury housing has plummeted by 50% in Barcelona between 1 October and 15 November”, explains Emmanuel Virgoulay, Founding Partner at Barnes International in Spain. Whilst Barcelona falls, interest from buyers in these kinds of assets in Madrid is soaring by 40%, according to the real estate company that specialises in the premium segment.

“For every home for sale in Madrid, there are four buyers”. In Barcelona, by contrast, “the damage has already been done”, explained Virgoulay, referring to the unilateral referendum. That process has marked a before and after in the Catalan economy. The uncertainty has caused panic to spread throughout the markets, leading to the flight of more than 2,600 companies, causing the confidence of businessmen and consumers to collapse and paralysing investments. Housing, along with tourism, has been the most affected sector.

Before 1-O, Barcelona was enjoying its best moment since the crisis. The prices of high-standing properties were growing at a rate of 15%. However, since 1 October, the decrease in prices amounts to 20%. During the same month, the cost of these types of assets in Madrid has also moved by double digits, but in the opposite direction, with growth of 10%, like in the Balearic Islands. In Andalucía, the variation has been somewhat lower, between 5% and 10%, according to market sources.

In Barcelona, the rise in prices had generated a bubble. “Some owners were aligning the price of their properties with those in the most exclusive parts of other cities in Europe”, explained Virgoulay. However, investors “put the handbrake on” several months ago now. In October, there was a 50% decrease in the number of deeds signed for the sale and purchase of homes and mortgages, with buyers pulling out and preferring to lose their deposits, which can represent up to 10% of the purchase price, than going ahead with their purchases.

“Investors are going to come to Madrid because the market is safer”, explains Virgoulay. Currently, 57% of the luxury real estate acquisitions that are made in Spain take place in Madrid. The Spanish capital is the most attractive city for domestic and international investors alike. “The weight of the investor market is comparable with the market for primary residences”, he explains.

Looking ahead to year end, Virgoulay considers that, since the Government took action, with the application of Article 155, “the outlook is stable and demand has been starting to recover since 15 November”. But, 21 December is emerging as a new door to uncertainty “anything can happen once again”. Nevertheless, “Prices are going to rise, in general, but in Barcelona, it is clear that they are not going to evolve, they are going to fall”.

In Madrid, like in Barcelona, the average price of luxury housing amounts to €8,000/m2. In the Balearic Islands, where the main demand is from European buyers for second homes, the price per square metre amounts to €7,500/m2.

Barnes plans to open new offices in 2018 in locations such as the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. Cataluña was another one of its objectives, but, for the time being, no date has been set for that opening.

Original story: Expansión (by Inma Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

GS & Cerberus Exit ‘Project Elcano’ Due To Political Uncertainty

24 June 2015 – El Confidencial

Banco Popular, led by Ángel Ron (pictured above), is seeking to divest real estate assets worth €500 million (Project Elcano), but the political uncertainty in Spain is making investors nervous.

According to sources close to proceedings, the main candidates in the running to take over Popular’s portfolio – namely, the private equity fund Cerberus and Goldman Sachs – have decided to postpone investment until after the general election in November, by which time the current uncertain outlook in the country should have cleared.

The same sources add that these two candidates have indicated to Popular that, given the situation in the country following the results of the municipal and regional elections and the subsequent (political) agreements being made, they are not willing to pay the price demanded by the bank; i.e. if the entity really wants to sell, then it will have to lower its (price) expectations.

Ron’s response has been negative because he is not willing to assume additional losses over and above the provisions already recognised against this portfolio. Moreover, other parties are interested in the operation, which means that it could still go ahead before the elections. A spokesman for Popular declined to comment on this information.

This withdrawal is not an isolated case. The uncertainty generated following 24-M (the municipal and regional elections held on 24 May) has had a dual effect amongst the large international investors: firstly, it has made them cautious and slam down on the breaks, whereby delaying numerous deals. Secondly, it has made them reduce their bids, which has punctured the emerging bubble that was forming in the Spanish market, particularly with respect to high quality assets. (…).

Nervousness in the market

Thus, Popular is the latest victim of this new environment in the Spanish market. However, investors and asset managers consider that the case of this bank in particular in more concerning. They are worried about Popular’s sizeable exposure to real estate (it holds around €11,000 million of RE on its books, net of provisions), because they consider that it is not sufficiently provisioned and its latent losses may require new capital contributions. As a result, the announcement that it was going to divest an initial package of €500 million assets generated relief in the market.

For this reason, these latest problems around closing the sale have made some players in the market very nervous. Yesterday, that resulted in decreases of 1.16% on the stock exchange on a day of increases for the Ibex. Popular’s share price has increased by around 15% this year, i.e. by more than the rest of the sector, with the exception of BBVA and Sabadell, however its valuation still falls below those of the major players in the sector at 0.76 times its book value. (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Eduardo Segovia)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Project Kite: Ibercaja Puts €800M RE Portfolio Up For Sale

9 June 2015 – Expansión

Project Kite / The Aragonese group has engaged N+1 to negotiate the sale of 6,900 residential units, 1,300 retail premises and industrial warehouses and 600 plots of land with large overseas funds.

Ibercaja wants to forget about its real estate legacy and focus on its traditional business. After studying a possible operation for several months, the Aragonese group has now decided to sell nearly all of its real estate business. To this end, it has engaged N+1, which has distributed preliminary information about Project Kite to large international funds over the last few days.

Through this operation, Ibercaja offers investors €800 million of foreclosed assets, according to financial sources. Based on the latest available figures, as at the end of 2014, the group held more than €900 million of foreclosure homes, land and property developments on its balance sheet.

The €800 million portfolio will include 6,900 residential units (homes, garages and storerooms); 1,300 retail premises and industrial warehouses; and 600 plots of land, almost half of which have building permits. The homes are primarily located in Zaragoza, Madrid and Barcelona.

Management contract

According to sources, the operation may include a management contract for the remaining real estate assets and the transfer of a team of specialist professionals, comprising around 50 employees. The model for the transaction will be similar to the one adopted by Kutxabank last year.

With this project, Ibercaja joins Bankia, which recently put all of its foreclosed assets up for sale, in the so-called Project Big Bang. These entities are looking to get rid of the real estate assets that are weighing them down, whereby taking advantage of the interest that large funds are showing in becoming Spain’s new property companies, and thus being able to use their resources to grant new loans once more.

The political environment following the regional and local elections has caused many funds to review their strategies, although according to financial sources, they will continue to buy assets provided the misgivings about the general election do not increase.

Ibercaja already explored the possible sale of its real estate portfolio in the middle of 2014, but in the end it backed out.

In 2014, the group also studied the possibility of an institutional investor acquiring some of its share capital; it engaged JP Morgan to assist with that analysis, but ended up ruling out the option. All indications are that Ibercaja will accelerate its IPO in 2016, in line with the philosophy of the savings bank law and the wishes of the ECB.

The Aragonese entity – the result of the merger of Ibercaja and Caja 3 – generated €42.6 million during Q1 2015, up 6% from a year earlier.

Original story: Expansión (by Jorge Zuloaga)

Translation: Carmel Drake