Housing: Completions Exceed New Starts For 7th Year

30 March 2015 – Cinco Días

It is not easy to measure how robust activity is in the real estate sector. But if there is one indicator that has been taken into account historically to assess the sector’s health, it has been the volume of housing starts. That is where the problems begin. The permits that developers have to obtain to enable them to begin construction work did not always used to correspond to the exact number of homes that were built in the end, and so the gross figure that was published, had to be carefully extracted.

And this market suffers from another peculiarity. Since house building is a slow process, which tends to take between 12 and 24 months, it is not easy to halt developments that are already underway, even once it has been established that most of the homes under construction may not be sold upon completion.

These two aspects help us to understand what has happened in recent years, when we analyse the data for housing starts and completions. If we take the year 2000 as a starting point, when nobody doubted that the real estate market was heading towards a boom of as yet unknown proportions, the number of house starts began to open up a sizeable gap over the number of completed homes, of more than 40%, approximately. The former moved in the vicinity of 500,000 homes, whilst the latter remained at just over 350,000.

Right after that, house production volumes climbed to more than 600,000 per year, spurred on by demand for a primary residence by one of the largest population cohorts in Spain’s recent history (the baby boomers), strong employment and the almost unlimited access to very cheap financing over almost “eternal periods”.

Thus, the gap between the two variables continued to grow until 2008, when everything came to an abrupt end. In fact, that year closed with 264,795 housing starts, when just a year before the figure had amounted to no fewer than 651,427. In 12 months, activity had collapsed by 59%, but the majority of the construction work underway continued to run its course (only a minority of developments were left unfinished even during the worst years of the crisis), which explains why since then, the number of finished homes has exceeded the number of house starts, year after year, for seven years in a row.

Shortage of new supply

In 2014, this trend was almost reversed, but in the end it was not. Last year, construction of 34,873 houses began, which represented a slight increase of 1.7% compared with the figure a year before, but still a long way below the 865,561 homes that developers began building in 2006, during the height of the boom. This means that today, the number of homes being constructed accounts for barely 4.02% of the volumes that were being constructed during the economic boom. Moreover, the figure is slightly lower than the number of homes that were completed last year (46,795), which in turn represented 7.29% of the number of homes that were finished in 2007 (the peak of the series), when 641,419 homes were completed.

All indications are that this year will be the first year that the two curves cross again, in such a way that more homes are started than are completed. In fact, if this does not happen, there could be problems due to a shortage of stock of new homes in places where the stock has already been absorbed and demand is beginning to intensify. Another important indicator for the sector, namely the consumption of cement, also indicates the same trend. During the first two months of this year, cement consumption has increased by 6.6%, to amount to almost 1.6 million tonnes, which corroborates the theory that the cranes are returning, albeit in a selective way.

Another business niche, which is key to the recovery of the construction sector, but which does not seem to stop decreasing is: refurbishments. According to figures from the Spanish Confederation of the Construction Product Manufacturers Association (Cepco), 2014 closed with 22,428 permits for the renovation or refurbishment of homes, down 0.80% on the previous year. And the number of building permits barely grew (rising by only 2.8%).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)

Translation: Carmel Drake

What Does The Future Hold For Azca?

16 March 2015 – El Confidencial

In Madrid, the ‘City’ is called Azca. It is the capital’s financial centre par excellence and, yet, a third of the office space in the area is empty. (According to sector experts), the time for change in upon us.

In Madrid, the ‘City’ is called Azca. It is the capital’s financial centre par excellence, home to iconic buildings such as Torre Picasso and many of the world’s leading companies own the properties, including Pontegadea (the real estate company owned by Amancio Ortega), GMP, Mutua Madrileña, El Corte Inglés, Metrovacesa, Testa and Infinorsa. The prime location, in the heart of the Paseo de la Castellana and next to one of the capital’s major transport hubs, Nuevos Ministerios, meant that until a few years ago, this area accounted for the majority of the capital’s prime office space. However, the opening of the Cuatro Torres, the arrival of the economic crisis, the departure of large companies to peripheral areas (of the city) and the lack of investment, both in the properties themselves as well as in the surrounding area, have dampened Azca’s appeal.

The combination of these elements has also had a significant affect on prices. Between 2008 and 2014, prime rents in the capital fell from €39/m2 to €25/m2 (per month), whilst in Barcelona, rents decreased from €22/m2 to almost €14/m2 (per month), according to a report called “Understanding the Office Market in 2014”, prepared by Deloitte Real Estate. The final nail in the coffin in terms of the pressure on the area came with the departure of KPMG, which (last month) decided to leave its headquarters in Torre Europa to move to the Torre de Cristal, at Real Madrid’s former Sports City (Ciudad Deportiva).

Furthermore, BBVA is set to leave its traditional black skyscraper to relocate to the suburb of Las Tablas, and the tenants of the Torre Saint Gobain and Torre Titania are planning to fully vacate; the latter was built by El Corte Inglés on the foundations of the former Windsor. In total, around 67,000 square metres of the 272,000 square metres of above-ground office space in the area is (currently) available to let, which gives rise to the question: is Azca doomed to reduce its prices further?

The answer is no, according to all of the experts, although they admit that the area is at a turning point. In their view, Azca is living through its own catharsis, which may be summarised by the classic phrase – adapt or die. And the widespread belief is that the former will happen. “Right now, Azca has an opportunity to reinvent itself as the ‘City’ of Madrid once more, but it must know how to seize it. In terms of its location, it has the right ingredients and moreover, the higher the vacancy rate, the easier it will be”, say the experts at Deloitte.

In Madrid, barely 2% of the office space in the high quality buildings inside the M-30 is vacant.

In this sense, a public-private initiative, known as the Azca Master Plan (Plan Director de Azca), is underway, which seeks to open up the area and facilitate access from El Coste Inglés in Nuevos Ministerios to the Bernabeu, through three targeted efforts: construction work to improve (the area in general), environmental initiatives and planning. This would mean, amongst other aspects, modifying some of the uses (of the area); the main challenge is to convert the area that is the capital’s business district during the week, into an area for families, shopping and leisure on the weekends, rather than leaving it half empty when the office lights are turned off (on Friday night), which is what happens at the moment.

“Azca must become a digital icon that adapts to incorporate technological developments, that uses the facades of the buildings (creatively), that puts up digital screens to attract young people (to the area) at the weekend, that organises initiatives for the neighbours (of the area) and the wider city, that becomes an icon of ‘digital Madrid’, in the style of New York’s Times Square”, says Ángel Serrano, Business Director at Aguirre Newman.

His company is managing the last major transaction in the area, the sale of Castellana, 89, in which a great deal of interest is being shown; the price may reach €140 million. The same interest was seen recently in the bid to acquire the Torre Saint Gobain, which GMP ended up purchasing for €90 million (with plans to spend a further €14 million on its refurbishment) and the land that El Corte Inglés purchased from Adif for €136 million, when the starting price was €40 million.

These transactions confirm the conviction that the major landlords in Madrid have that Azca is going to emerge stronger from the current situation, which means it will be able to increase its prices again in the medium term. Nevertheless, for the time being, it will have to endure a couple of years “crossing the desert”, during which time GMP, Infinorsa and whoever ends up winning the bid to acquire Castellana 89 will refurbish their buildings as well as the Torre BBVA (where the bank will continue to occupy the top five floors and display its logo on the outside), Torre Saint Gobain and, most likely, the Torre Europa.

It is expected that all of these construction works will be carried out in parallel to the aforementioned Master Plan to relaunch the area, which means that now is the perfect time (for tenants) to move to Azca before all of these improvements have been completed and prices increase. “We are currently experiencing a historic moment in terms of low prices, which provides the perfect opportunity for many of the companies that moved out of the centre and now want to move back. Moreover, this is supported by the gradual recovery of the economy and the privileged location of Azca, which I think will play an important role in its favour (in the future)”, says José Luis Guillermo, managing partner of Inmospace. Nevertheless, in his opinion, this metamorphism of the area will require support from the Public Administrations, not only in terms of the necessary changes to certain uses (of the area), but also in terms of the adoption of measures to promote the entry of multi-national companies into the capital’s ‘City’.

Experts consider that now is the time to move to Azca, before prices rise.

Madrid has some of the highest forecasts for (rental) income growth over the next five years of any city in Europe. Currently, according to data from Knight Frank, its vacancy rate amounts to 11.9%, although in the central business district, known as in the jargon of the trade as CBD, the figure decreases to 7.3%, and for Grade A buildings (highest quality) within the M-30, the vacancy rate is a low as 2%. This means that there are very few good buildings (available) in prime areas in Madrid.

In this context, a third of the leaseable office area in Azca is currently vacant and, despite that, both the experts and the large investors that are bidding to purchase buildings expect average rental income in the area to return to €30/m2 (per month), i.e. 20% more than now, over the next five to seven years. How come?

Patricio Palomar, Director of Alternative Investments at CBRE provides a good summary of where Azca is going and the price of its rentals: “To analyse the evolution, three points should be taken into account: the Master Plan for the area, which will favour (higher) prices; how Azca is going to change in terms of immediate availability, since various buildings are currently being refurbished, which will work in the area’s favour, but that will also mean there is more supply and therefore, tenants will have greater bargaining power, which may contain the increase to some extent. The third element is that there are few square metres concentrated in one area in Madrid and there are few high quality buildings for tenants looking to rent more than 10,000 m2 of space inside the M-30; a supply that Azca will indeed have (in the not too distant future). Add to that the fact that many tenants of this type, which moved to peripheral areas in the past, now want to return to locations such as this one, make me think that we will see price increases”.

Original story: El Confidencial (by Ruth Ugalde)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Cataluña Will Fine Banks That Do Not Lease Out Foreclosed Homes

11 March 2015 – Expansión

The Generalitat will impose fines of up to €90,000 on banks that have homes (on their balance sheets) resulting from mortgage foreclosures and the assignment of deeds in lieu of payment, which are in a poor condition and as a result, are not leased out. The 72 municipalities with the highest demand (for housing) will be forced to transfer affected homes to the Generalitat, which, after refurbishing them, will lease them out for a maximum period of ten years. This is one of the measures contained in a law introduced to address urgent housing measures, which the Government of Artur Mas (CiU) announced yesterday.

The text also empowers the Generalitat and the town halls to exercise ‘their pre-emptive rights and rights of first refusal’ for all of the homes that have resulted from mortgage foreclosures and the assignment of deeds in lieu of payment, that the bank wants to sell. The objective is to prevent packages of properties ending up in the hands of international funds and evicting the tenants from those homes.

Original story: Expansión (by A.Z.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Investment In Housing Returns To Barcelona After 7 Years

18 February 2015 – El País

The housing market is the last sector to emerge from the crisis. Nevertheless, investment returned to the residential segment last year, after seven years of sluggishness towards undertaking significant projects in the Catalan capital. In addition to the purchase of portfolios by vulture funds, nine major acquisitions were also recorded in Barcelona, corresponding to 55,095 square metres, according to the real estate consultant CB Richard Ellis. These developments, most of which are aimed at high-end clients, showed a move away from the traditional prime (residential) area – Sarria-Sant Gervasi – towards the neighbourhoods of Eixample, Ciutat Vella and Diagonal Mar.

The Vice President of CB Richard Ellis, Enrique Martínez-Laguna, described 2014 as a “historical” year because the volumes of investment amounted to €10,463 million across the whole of Spain, even higher than the levels recorded in 2007, the year in which most capital was invested. The Director of the consultancy firm in Barcelona, Anna Esteban, highlighted that property prices have fallen since then, and so more transactions were recorded in 2014 than in 2007. The consultancy firm expects investors’ appetite to continue this year, to the extent that “we will begin to see cranes (appearing on the horizon)”, says Martínez-Laguna.

The Catalan capital destroyed 90,000 square metres of office space in 2014

But the map of the city has not only changed in terms of the construction of housing. In total, 90,000 square metres of office space were destroyed in the city centre in 2014 alone. Buildings were converted or will shortly be converted into hotels and homes.

Changing landscape

For example, the Paseo de Gracia, has now become a residential and retail area. And something similar may take place on the Diagonal following its renovation. “There are also two buildings, at number 10 Francesc Macia and number 111 Paseo de Gracia, whose premises could be converted into the entrance of what may become a new open-air shopping centre” says Martínez-Laguna. At the same time, some of the buildings in the 22@ district are generating very similar rents to those being paid for other properties in the traditional business district.

The current rental price in the best areas of Barcelona amounts to c.€17.75 per square metre, down from the peak of €28/m2 recorded in 2007. Moreover, the consultancy firm considers that these rents have now bottomed out and will grow by 30% over the next two to three years.

Original story: El País (by Lluís Pellicer)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Best Start To The Year For Real Estate Market Since 2010

6 February 2015 – El Economista

Investment activity in the non-residential real estate sector in Spain has started the year with the same strength with which it closed 2014. In just one month, investment has risen to almost €1,100 million, approximately equal to the total amount recorded during the first quarter last year, according to data published by Savills, the international real estate consultancy.

This has been the best start to the year for the real estate market since 2010 in terms of transaction volumes. Nevertheless, in terms of the number of transactions, the level has not been particularly noteworthy compared with other periods – as of yesterday, only nine deals had been closed.

“In January and February, we tend to see transactions left over from before the holidays being closed, however, the pipeline of investment transactions in retail and offices currently exceeds €2,000 million. We expect investment volumes to be similar to or even exceed those recorded in 2014”, said Luis Espadas, Director of Capital Markets for Savills España.

Two transactions have accounted for almost 80% of the total investment in 2015. Firstly, the sale of Gran Vía 32, which was acquired by Pontegadea for around €400 million, according to market sources and secondly, the Puerto Venecia shopping centre, which was sold for €451 million – the deal was announced at the end of the year, but was actually closed in January.

“Both transactions not only support the rising trend in mega-deals (those exceeding €100 million), which accounted for 2.5% of all transactions in 2011 and for 9% last year, they also far outweigh the size of the largest operations recorded in 2014. Moreover, Savills highlights that in each case, the transactions involved a single building, rather than portfolios (of buildings) like in 2014 (when the Junta de Andalucía sold 70 buildings for €300 million and Carrefour sold a portfolio for €350 million).

Success in the office market

Amongst other transactions, interest for the office segment in Madrid stands out once again. It broke records in 2014 for the highest number of transactions ever recorded, with 71 transactions; and which has started 2015 on the right foot. Five buildings were sold in two weeks, almost all located within the M-30.

“The shortage of high quality properties for sale in the business district and other urban areas diverted the search for opportunities towards well-established business centres outside of the M-30, although 75% of investment last year was located inside the periphery” explained Espadas.

Nevertheless, there is an increasing drive towards refurbishment “to add value to office blocks, particularly those that are well located, which are being used either as offices or for conversion into hotels and shops”, added Espadas.

Meanwhile, yesterday, the consultancy firm Irea published its report about investment in the real estate sector in 2014, a year in which direct transactions in real estate assets tripled. Such investments accounted for €9,660 million worth of transactions, out of a total investment volume in the sector of €23,028 million, compared with €5,344 million in 2013.

Original story: El Economista (by A. Brualla)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Wanda’s Plans For Edificio España Get Green Light

30 January 2015 – Expansión

Yesterday, the Governing Board of the Community of Madrid gave the green light to the refurbishment of the Edificio España, owned by the Chinese group Wanda, controlled by the magnate Wang Jianlin.

The businessman, who also owns 20% of the football club Atlético de Madrid, will invest €114 million in the renovation of the property, located in Madrid’s Plaza de España, which it purchased from the Santander Group for €265 million. Inside the Madrid skyscraper, he will create a luxury hotel, more than 300 homes and a retail space, which he plans to expand to 15,000 sqm.

The permission to refurbish the Edificio España has been granted in parallel to the negotiations that the Wanda Group’s team is conducting with the Madrid and central Governments to create a macro-complex on the site of the old barracks in Campamento, in Madrid.

To this end, the Secretary of State for Defence, Pedro Argüelles, met yesterday with the CEO of the Wanda Group, Laurent Fischler, to discuss the purchase of that land, which covers around 200 hectares, and where Jianlin plans to invest €3,000 million in the development of a residential, housing and leisure complex.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Jianlin Presents His Plans For Edificio España

29 January 2015 – Expansión

The Wanda Group, controlled by the Chinese magnate Wang Jianlin, will invest €114 million on the refurbishment of the Edificio España in Madrid and a further €30 million on the project to regenerate the surrounding area.

The plans of the Chinese businessman Wang Jianlin, owner of the Wanda Group holding company, to convert the Edificio España in Madrid into a luxury hotel, residential and retail complex, take an important step forwards today. The Executive of the Community of Madrid will discuss the modification to the General Urban Development Plan at their Government Board meeting. Following approval by the Town Hall of Madrid, it is expected that the Government of Ignacio González will also vote favourably.

The proposal, presented by the Santander Group (which owned the building until last summer, when it sold it to Wang Jianlin for €265 million) and supported by Wanda Madrid Development (which formalised the purchase of the building before a notary of 30 July) will result in changes not only to the historical building in the capital, but also to the area surrounding it.

Jianlin has committed, together with other businesses, such as the VP Group, controlled by Vicente Pérez, to finance some of costs of the area’s regeneration, which includes the expansion of the pedestrian area (by 12,500 sqm) and the construction of an underground walkway between Calle Ferraz and Calle Bailén. Jianlin will contribute around €30 million of the total €79.5 million to be invested, according to sources close to proceedings. 51% will be borne by the concessionary companies to be awarded the new car park in the area, according to the Town Hall.

In addition to the €265 million Wanda paid Santander to acquire the property and the €30 million it will invest in the regeneration of the plaza, the Chinese group will invest a further €114.085 million in the renovation of the building, designed by the architectural firms Foster and Lamela, which have worked together before on other projects, such as the construction of Terminal T4 at Madrid’s Barajas airport.

Comprehensive renovation

The Edificio España will be fully refurbished on the inside (the building will be completely gutted), whilst on the outside, only the main façade will remain, together with part of the sides and the existing chamfer on the rear façade (located between Calle los Reyes and Calle Maestro Guerrero).

The new project will put an end to the rear façade, designed as a “comb”, which creates five interim patios and provides access to the San Marcos church and the neighbourhood of San Bernardo from Plaza de España.

In addition, the new Edificio de España will have almost 10,000 sqm of underground space, which will be used to expand the parking area, increasing it from its current size of 2,473 sqm to 12,000 sqm, which will result in 318 more parking spaces.

In exchange for the extension of the car park, Wanda must grant 10% of this space to the Town Hall for public use or pay for that space separately. According to the proposal presented to the town hall, the Chinese investor will choose the second option.

The size of the residential area, which will include around 380 homes, and the hotel space will barely change: decreasing from 40,883 sqm to 37,916 sqm in the case of the former and from 22,720 sqm to 22,000 sqm in the case of the hotel.

The main change proposed by Wanda will affect the retail area, whose space will be increased from 3,687 sqm to almost 15,000 sqm. The aim is to create a “large retail space” between the ground floor and the third floor. “We expect to house a variety of retail activity, primarily clothing and accessory stores”, they say in the proposal.

The building work will take place between 2016 and 2020 and it is expected that the homes will be completed between 2019 and 2021. The construction work is expected to create almost 4,000 jobs, between direct and indirect roles. Once completed, 185 people will work in the hotel and retail space in the Edificio España.

Original story: Expansión (by Rocío Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

ST: Housing Becomes Investor Safe Haven Once More…

20 January 2015 – Cinco Días

…in the face of stock exchange volatility.

Experts forecast more sales in the future but do not expect significant price rises.

Refurbishments, rental and tourism are the three key niche areas for housing.

The housing market is preparing to emerge completely renewed from its worst crisis in recent history. Or at least that is the view of the latest study conducted by one of the main real estate valuation companies, Sociedad de Tasación. All of the parameters that drive the market are in better shape today than they were a year ago and that, coupled with the challenges facing this activity, means that forecasts are much more optimistic.

The CEO of Sociedad de Tasación, Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, said today that property prices are showing a clear trend towards “stabilisation”. Particularly, in used homes, where the growth in demand has caused smaller price decreases and even the first annual price increases. “In resale homes, we are seeing very clearly that prices have bottomed out, whereas for new homes, if all of the other variables fall in line with our expectations, then prices should reach their minimum levels at some point this year”, said the CEO of the real estate valuation company.

Refurbishment and rental

Speaking of variables, Fernández-Aceytuno, cited three key parameters: employment, purchasing power and finance. Continued improvement in the labour market will be crucial for ensuring that demand for housing continues to increase, now that the banks deem determined to re-establish the flow of credit. “In fact, all indicators show that, as at the end of previous crises, demand is building, as potential buyers wait for prices to come down to the desired level or to the level that they consider they can afford. As soon as that happens, sales will increase” said the CEO of Sociedad de Tasación.

This indicates that over the short to medium term, the market will see more sales without necessarily having to raise prices. And this does not even take account of the fact that some of the circumstances that occurred in the early 2000s, when the last boom in property prices began, are now repeating themselves.

And it is now, like then, that experts believe that housing is regaining its traditional appeal as a safe haven in the face of low returns on deposits and the high volatility of the stock market. With the euro, oil and other commodity prices all in decline, it is inevitable that investments in property and gold, amongst others, become more attractive, explain analysts. In addition, uncertainty exists overseas.

“We see more clouds on the horizon outside of Spain that within it. We are concerned by the situations in Russia and Greece, by terrorism, by how the deflationary situation in Europe will develop in the face of economic and price growth in the US. In Spain, the evolution of the economic situation is critical”, noted Fernández-Aceytuno.

Asked whether international investors seem concerned about the rise in political groups such as Podemos, the CEO of Sociedad de Tasación was keen to minimise the effect that such factors have on the decision-making of companies investing in Spain. “As you would expect, they ask about Podemos, Cataluña and corruption, but we are not aware of any project that has been halted for any of those reasons”, he said.

In terms of future challenges, refurbishment, rental and tourism are the three areas in which experts at the real estate valuation company expect to see the highest growth. In refurbishment, because 90% of existing homes do not meet the requirements of the 2006 technical code. In rental, because buy-to-let is one of the fastest growing trends in the market given its high yields (depending on the area, yields can exceed 6%). And finally, tourism because statistics show that up to 12 million travellers will stay in houses instead of hotels every year, “tourism represents a huge niche in which hotels can compete by buying homes, refurbishing them and offering them up for rent”.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)

 Translation: Carmel Drake

Barceló To Operate The Torre Madrid Hotel

18 January 2015 – Cinco Días

Metrovacesa and Barceló Hotels & Resorts signed a 20-year lease contract on Friday morning for the operation of the future hotel in the Torre Madrid, built by Metrovacesa in the Plaza de España in 1957.

The companies report that the hotel will provide superior four star accommodation, with 256 rooms, a cafeteria, a restaurant, a spa, meeting rooms and common areas.

“Metrovacesa plans to undertake major investment in the refurbishment of the first 9 floors of the building, covering approximately 22,000 square metres, with the aim of converting the hotel into a destination of choice in Madrid, unique in its design and facilities”, the companies report in a statement. The new Barceló hotel will operate alongside luxury apartments, which occupy the top floors of the building, and will become the chain’s fourth hotel in Madrid.

In 2011, Metrovacesa, a then listed company, informed the CNMV about the sale of homes in Torre Madrid for €28.7 million. The cheapest home in Torre Madrid, covering around 80 square metres, cost €530,000. The most expensive home occupies 240 square metres. The height and orientation determine the final price of homes of a similar size.

In 2005, Metrovacesa put two of Madrid’s most famous skyscrapers, the Edificio España and the Torre Madrid, up for sale. Santander acquired the Edificio España for €389 million in the same year; and last year the entity agreed the sale of the building to the Chinese group, Wanda, for €265 million.

Original article: Cinco Días

Translation: Carmel Drake