Madrid’s Town Hall is Blocking 105,000 New Homes in SE of the Capital

11 December 2017 – Idealista

Madrid has the potential for a large urban development at its disposal in the form of the PAUs located in the southeast of the city, covering a surface area of almost 37 million m2 and with the capacity for the construction of up to 105,000 new homes over the next 15 years. The plans have already been sketched out, and they have been approved by the Supreme Court, but clashes between property developers/landowners and the Town Hall led by Manuela Carmena have frozen the permits and licences for completing the development of the area and, therefore, the construction of affordable new homes, which are so necessary and so sought-after in the city.

The most worrying thing is not that the future of so many thousands of homes is up in the air, but rather that they are homes that would go to middle-class families and vulnerable groups: primarily young people and people with limited purchasing power, through social housing schemes, and with prices ranging between €160,000 and €240,000. Los Berrocales, Los Ahijones, Valdecarros and Los Cerros, known in the real estate sector as land destined for the construction of the most affordable housing in Madrid, are PAUs that find themselves on this journey through a desert. And the impasse has already lasted for more than a decade.

The strategy for the southeast started to take shape with the PGOU of 1997, under the PP Government when José María Álvarez del Manzano was the mayor, with the intention of joining together all of the potential in the towns to the south of Madrid, such as Getafe, Leganés, Alcorcón and Móstoles, with the Corredor del Henares.

After completing the PAUs policy in the north of Madrid, with Sanchinarro, Montecarmelo and Las Tablas, and also the PAU of Carabanchel in the 1990s, the municipal border of Madrid was reaching its limit in terms of developable land capacity. To the north, expansion had already reached Alcobendas and San Sebastián de los Reyes; to the west, the buildable land in Madrid was already bordering on Pozuelo and Majadahonda; and in the south, the PAU of Carabanchel already reached Alcorcón and Getafe. The only free area left in the capital was to the east.

And so the initiative to develop the southeast of the capital was launched, although it has been suspended for years by the courts and has been held back by the economic crisis. But now, when the economy has started to recover and the Supreme Court has approved the project, the building work has come up against a new problem: the position of the Municipal Government.

What is the problem?

(…) The Town Hall believes that the urban development proposal for the southeast does not meet the current needs of the city. The first main stumbling block is over the number of homes to be built.

Although the Supreme Court gave the green light in September last year to the plans that involve the construction of 104,737 homes, of which approximately 53% would have some degree of protection (subsidy), as well as to the building of offices and industrial warehouses (35% of the surface area will be destined to those developments), Manuela Carmena’s team considers that the capital will not have sufficient demand to justify the construction of so many homes (…).

Specifically, the Town Hall calculates that the city will have demand for approximately 6,000 homes per year over the next few years – that figure is well below those forecast by other researchers in the market. The IESE business school, for example, estimates that the Community of Madrid will need more than 25,000 homes per year until 2025, at least (…), a figure that falls to 12,000-13,000 in the case of the capital itself (…).

Another reason that the municipal government cites against the progress of these urban developments is that the city still has a significant stock of empty homes. But, again, research and official figures exist that call into question its claims (…).

The discussions are set for the long-haul.

A 10-year paralysis that could go on for another 10 years

(…) “Regardless, if we suppose that we obtain the necessary licences and that construction starts immediately, the first homes would not be ready to be handed over until 2022-2023. If to that timeframe, we add the years needed to change the General Plan (PGOU), in the end, we are going to be talking about another decade gone to waste”, said Javier López Linares, Manager of the PAU for Los Cerros (…).

Original story: Idealista (by Ana P. Alarcos, David Marrero and Alejandro Soto)

Translation: Carmel Drake

RE Investment Worth €13,000M At Risk In Madrid East

23 May 2017 – El Mundo

Landowners with town planning and real estate projects in the south-east of Madrid, represented by Compensation Boards in the new neighbourhoods of Los Berrocales, Valdecarros, Los Cerros and Los Ahijones, warn that the Town Hall’s failure to define the development of the area could put at risk investments amounting to more than €13,000 million.

It is estimated that this investment, relating to urban planning, property development and the construction of housing, business and retail parks, public spaces and green areas, would generate 965,000 direct and indirect jobs in total over the next few years.

The Compensation Boards, which are grouped together under the Madrid East brand, have issued a statement in which they denounce that, with the establishment of the so-called working groups for the analysis, evaluation and assessment of the alternatives for the development strategy for the south-east, the Town Hall “is doing nothing but delaying the development of projects that have already been granted the necessary legal and town planning support and that have now been suffering delays for more than 20 years”.

For Madrid East, the urban planning activities in the south-east of Madrid “are essential for facilitating access to housing at affordable prices, given that an increase in the supply would help to contain the house price rises that have been seen in the capital in recent months, in both the ownership and rental segments”. In addition, in its opinion, these developments would allow the Community and Town Hall of Madrid to boost their social housing plans aimed at supporting those groups most in need.

“Failure to respond to the increase in demand that is expected, given the forecast growth in households over the next few years, will put upwards pressure on prices, whereby restricting effective access to housing. In the context of the high prices of the available housing stock in the north of the city and inside the M-30, Madrid East’s strategy would allow the construction of new homes at accessible prices for young people and families with the least purchasing power”, said the statement.

“We have the opportunity to resolve the housing problem for the next 30 years. We cannot repeat the same mistakes that were made in the 1980s when the Town Hall of the time considered that Madrid would not groanymorere and then promoted the urgent development of the PAUs”, it said.

Sources at the Compensation Boards believe that the Town Hall “must ensure that public investment is made in the developments to the south-east of Madrid, guaranteeing the best services for citizens, but at the same time, respecting the plans that have already been approved, as well as providing legal certainty for investors”.

In this sense, the landowners in these areas say that private investments in the main activities in Madrid South-East “already exceed €300 million, with mortgage commitments acquired over the medium and long term for their execution” and they warn of possible “legal consequences for the city of Madrid in the event of any stagnation in this regard”.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Valdeluz: Another Icon Of The RE Bubble Shows Signs Of Life

19 September 2016 – El Mundo

The recovery of the real estate market is spreading like an oil slick out from the major cities out to the rest of the country. The strength of the recovery is such that it is even reaching places that were synonymous with the real estate bubble. Just a few months ago, this newspaper reported the resurgence of the PAU de El Quiñón – El Pocero’s city in Seseña. Now, the awakening of the residential market has also reached the reviled PAU of Ciudad Valdeluz, in Yebes (Guadalajara).

The streets of the development, which contain four- and five-storey residential blocks and whose design is reminiscent of the PAUs in Madrid, are exuding life. The area has 2,220 finished homes – with an occupancy rate of 83.1% – and 2,611 registered inhabitants (a figure that the Town Hall says actually reflects 4,380 residents). Although perhaps the best symptom of the health of the housing market could well be the lack of For Sale signs. It is estimated that the stock here amounts to just 100-150 units after the banks placed some of their supply on the market in one go at cheap prices, marketing homes that once cost more than €200,000 in the golden years, for less than €70,000 and family homes that used to cost more than €400,000 for just €120,000.

The limited supply and strong rate of sales has even revived the property development sector. In August, the Town Hall granted its first building permit for 10 years. Moreover, and this is significant, it was to resume a project that had been suspended in 2008 and which was one of the last embers of the real estate bubble. Ibercaja is driving this development. “It is proof that development in Valdeluz is becoming profitable again and we think that it will be the starting point for the new real estate market here”, said Vidal Gaitán, Town Planning and Environment councillor in Yebes.

Gaitán is not at all surprised by Ibercaja’s decision: “A year and a half ago, the bank received around 80 or 90 homes and sold almost all of them in six months. It has seen that there is business here”. The councillor believes that this first building permit will have a “magnetic effect”, which is already being felt at the Town Hall. “Over the last few weeks, several architectural studios have asked about the status of certain plots of land. They have even asked about the licence relating to a shopping centre that has been half built”, he said. The municipal technicians have been instructed to prioritise these calls.

The available product belongs almost in its entirety to the banks and Sareb. For this reason, servicers such as Altamira, Solvia and Servihabitat are the main commercial players in the area. Javier Muro, Regional Director of the Central Region at Altamira Asset Management, describes the current activity at Valdeluz as “a new phase”. His company sold an 80-home building in just a few months. “With updated prices and affordable financing”, he said “sales of these kinds of developments are proving successful once more”.

“Price is critical in Valdeluz” said Muro, who recalled that the PAU has had to overcome the setback of not having a shuttle between the AVE station in Valdeluz and Madrid. Gaitán still dreams about that train, which would link the town with Atocha in 18 minutes. (…).

Nevertheless, Javier Román, Regional Director for Madrid, Castilla and the Northeast at Solvia, highlights Valdeluz’s location. “It is five minutes away from Guadalajara and it is easily accessible from Madrid and the Corredor del Henares by the A-II and R-2”, he said, at the same time as extolling the virtues of its 272,000 sqm of green space. (…).

Original story: El Mundo (by Jorge Salido Cobo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Banks & RE Firms Sell Affordable Homes In Seseña

10 May 2016 – La Voz de Galicia

Its silhouette – large blocks of toasted brick emerging out of the green fields of Toledo province – attracts attention from the Madrid-Andalucia motorway. The urbanisation of El Quiñón or Residencial Francisco Hernando, as its developer, Paco, el Pocero, named it, is located in the municipality of Seseña (Toledo), which borders Madrid, in an image linked to the real estate bubble whose crash hit it hard, but from which it is striving to break loose.

It wants to show that it is just another neighbourhood in Seseña and that, as such, the ghost town with deserted streets that received its first visitors in the Summer of 2007, when the first half a dozen residents moved in, of the 580 who received the first sets of keys, has gone from being a dormitory town to one where 6,700 people are officially registered, of which 1,600 are under 16 years old.

Amongst those that financed Pocero’s mega project – a PAU containing 13,000 homes of which only 5,096 have been constructed in two phases – at the height of the boom, was the former Galician savings banks. In fact, one of the financing operations, by Caixanova, is now under the spotlight of the National Court, along with the allegedly irregular loans that the FROB sent to the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor at the time. The Town Hall highlights that the neighbourhood currently has an occupancy rate of 80% and that the “reactivation” of the real estate sector has been felt “over the last year or so”, when the banks started to put the stock they holds in Seseña on the market. “The population has grown very fast”, say sources at the Town Hall. And the census confirms this: El Quiñón has more than doubled in terms of the number of inhabitants in five years, from 3,280 residents in 2011 to 6,700 currently, who represent 30% of the municipality’s total population (22,500).

Slow start

But the start – which is now happening – is slow and not free from difficulties. The key factor for Seseña to become an object of desire for potential buyers once again is prices, which have decreased by more than 50%. At the moment, for example, Aliseda has several two bedroom homes for sale for €85,000, although in 2012, other real estate arms of banks such as Santander and Sabadell ended up selling homes off virtually at cost, for less than €60,000 (…).

Original story: La Voz de Galicia (by A.B.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

First Residents Move Into Arroyo del Fresno (Madrid)

30 December 2015 – El Mundo

The new PAU (‘Programa de Actuación Urbanística’ or Urban Planning Program) in Arroyo del Fresno, located in the North of Madrid, has started to receive its first residents. CP Grupo and Amenabar have begun to hand over the keys to homes in this newly created environment, which will eventually contain almost 3,000 unsubsidised and subsidised homes (high-rise flats and single-family houses) in two phases. The development – where building work commenced in February 2014 – is, without doubt, one of the great symbols of the real estate recovery.

In accordance with the planned schedule, the first occupancy licences were granted in Arroyo del Fresno on 30 November for CP Grupo’s Montearroyo development (210 VPPL (limited price) homes) and Amenabar’s first VPPL residences, comprising 188 homes. All of these properties were sold shortly after their release onto the market in 2013 and the area is currently overrun with people moving in and deeds being signed, after Madrid’s Town Hall completed the partial receipt of the urbanisation.

In this sense, Amenabar has said that the deed signing process is progressing well, with deeds now signed for 176 (94%) of the 188 finished homes and the remaining deeds due to be signed for the other units soon. At the same time, the company revealed that it will begin to hand over its other development in Arroyo del Fresno in February; work there is almost complete on the 340 VPPB (basic price) homes.

In this way, the first settlers (which now occupy around one hundred of the properties) moved into Arroyo del Fresno in time for Christmas and hence the first illuminated windows and balconies can now be seen in the new neighbourhood. The number of residents in the PAU is expected to continue to increase over the coming days, as new residents take advantage of their days off over the holiday period to move in, according to CP Grupo.

It is worth highlighting that the opening of this new PAU is highly significant for the real estate sector because of what it represents. The definitive revival of the area took place at the height of the property crisis and the development received an enthusiastic response in terms of demand from the start, brandishing a new product in a sought-after location at competitive prices (post-boom). And so Arroyo del Fresno represents one of the faces of the new phase (of the economic cycle). After being the epicentre for the reactivation of property development, it is now really coming to life.

Original story: El Mundo (by Jorge Salido Cobo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Cogesa Paid c. €2,200/m2 For The Final Plots In Montecarmelo

25 September 2015 – El Confidencial

Some people regard it as an Urban Planning Action Plan (‘Programa de Actuación Urbanística’ or Pau) for “rich people” only. But, Montecarmelo, the smallest of the three new neighbourhoods in the north of Madrid – together with Sanchinarro and Las Tablas – has become the talk of the sector. And it is no wonder. The neighbourhood has starred in the most expensive land operation to be closed since the burst of the real estate bubble, and although it did not trigger alarm bells per se, it did raise concern amongst the main players in the market, for whom the memories of the worst excesses undertaken during the boom are still fresh and vivid.

Less than three months ago, at the beginning of July, the company Cogesa, which forms part of Grupo Dragados and is led by Enrique Pérez, the brother of Florentino Pérez (the President of Real Madrid Football Club), paid an “exorbitant” amount for the final few residential plots in Montecarmelo. Specifically, Cogesa paid just under €2,200/m2 for the land, i.e. significantly more than the figure (€1,400/m2 – €1,500/m2) the experts consulted by this newspaper consider should have been paid for the launch of a profitable development, unless, of course, it is developed as a cooperative.

Montecarmelo, which is located next to Monte del Pardo, the Colmenar motorway and the M-40 ring-road, was conceived at the beginning of the 1990s. With more than half a million square metres of land allocated for residential use – 8,500 homes, both unsubsidised and subsidised – it became the destination of choice for hundreds of young couples who saw the neighbourhood as a good place to live that allowed them to travel into the city centre each day to work. It was born as a commuter town (neighbourhood), just like Sanchinarro and Las Tablas, but is now witnessing the “overheating”  of land prices that seems to be happening once again. (…).

Knight Frank…estimates that there is only around 50,000 m2 of buildable space left in the development, i.e. 5% of the total, since the remaining 95% is under construction or has already been built. (…).

Cogesa’s bid took the other participants in the tender completely by surprise: Construcciones Amenabar and Grupo CP, two companies that have been involved in previous projects, as well as Momentum and the cooperative DMS have said as much…none of the other offers even came close to the figure that was put on the table by the Grupo Dragados’ company, to acquire the last large plot for sale in Montecarmelo. The company already has a presence in the neighbourhood, with around one thousand homes in several developments. At one of them, Las Terrazas de Montecarmela, the company has been selling homes for just under €3,000/m2.

“Cogesa already has interests there. It owns several plots, which means that by paying the amount it has done for this plot, it has also increased the value of its own portfolio there” says an expert consulted by this newspaper. (…).

However, the most recent land operations are raising concerns that the segment is “overheating”. In fact, the numbers do not add up for some developers. “A those prices, they would have to sell the homes for more than €3,500/m2, and not only is it going to be difficult to find buyers willing to pay that much, the figure also leaves minimal scope for profit. A logical price would have been €1,400/m2-€1,500/m2, because even if the cost of the land attributable to the final price of the homes was 50%, they could be sold at €3,000/m2 and not lose money”, explains a source at one developer, who prefers to remain anonymous.

“At these prices, the only thing that would make sense is a development on a cooperative basis, a formula that this company has adopted in the past. The developers need to make a profit of between 15% and 20%, however, in a cooperative, the manager does not earn any more than 10% and the risk is diluted amongst the cooperative”, says Ernesto Tarazona, Partner and Director of Residential Property and Land at Knight Frank, who believes that the lack of supply in the area benefits any project that is undertaken in Montecarmelo. (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Elena Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake