BBVA Research: House Prices Will Rise By 3.5% In 2017

19 October 2016 – Expansión

(…). BBVA Research indicated yesterday, in its report entitled “The Real Estate Situation in Spain” for Q2 2016, that “the improvement in sales is permitting a gradual appreciation in house prices”, which are expected to grow by 2.5% this year and by 3.5% next year. It added that this rise will be accompanied by very significant growth in terms of transaction volumes, given that sales are forecast to grow by 10% this year and by 6.5% next year, to reach 475,000 real estate operations in 2017.

This report echoes data published by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Bank of Spain, as well as by property registrars and several appraisal companies. One of them, Tinsa, recently indicated that house prices rose by 2.4% in September, with a strong increase in rental prices. Nevertheless, BBVA Research went a step further and said that this positive trend will continue well into next year, and may even accelerate thanks to job creation, improved confidence, the opening of the credit tap and demand from overseas buyers.

All of this will reinforce the effect that the price rises seen in recent months have had in terms of encouraging the market and investors who do not want to miss out. In this sense, BBVA Research said that “the path observed in terms of residential property prices is generating positive expectations, which will become a new factor that will support the demand for housing”. As a result, the sector will manage to offset some of the forecast deterioration in other factors next year, such as economic growth (which will slow by almost one percentage point in 2017, according to the main analysts, including BBVA itself), the moderation in global growth and the expected increase in oil prices.

Knock-on effect

Nevertheless, this increase in prices and transactions is not isolated, but rather is generating even greater positive effects in other aspects of the market. In this way, permits for new homes have recovered at a rate of almost 35% across Spain as a whole and by more than 100% in regions such as the Canary Islands and La Rioja. As a result, 90,000 new permits are expected to be signed next year, with housing starts at record highs compared to recent years.

In addition, the market for land is also enjoying more activity, with a 19.2% increase in the surface area sold during the first half of the year. This increase has also been accompanied by an increase in land prices (5.9%) following an increase of 4.3% in 2015, which reflects the outlook for the sector. Meanwhile, the purchase of land has undergone a significant change in recent years, given that at the start of the crisis, the major investors were individuals and now 70% of buyers are companies, thanks to the return of credit to the market.

Original story: Expansión (by Pablo Cerezal)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Taylor Wimpey Sold 53% More Homes In Spain In 2015

12 January 2016 – Expansión

The British real estate company Taylor Wimpey sold 53% more properties in Spain in 2015, thanks to the recovery of the market and the appreciation of the Pound against the Euro, which attracted more British buyers.

Taylor Wimpey, which owns residential developments on the Spanish Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands, sold 251 homes in Spain last year, compared with 164 in 2014. In addition, the average price paid for each property increased from €250,000 to €314,000. As a result, its turnover amounted to around €79 million, up by 92%.

Thanks to increases in the number of operations as well as in their value, the company says that the operating profit of its Spanish subsidiaries in 2015 exceeded the profit of GBP 4.2 million (€5.6 million) recorded a year earlier. The definitive financial data for last year will be announced next month.

Besides the sales that have already been completed, the property developer claims to have signed pre-contracts for the sale of a further 270 homes in Spain.

“We saw a significant improvement in the Spanish market in 2015” explained Taylor Wimpey yesterday in a statement to the London Stock Exchange. However, despite this recovery, the Group’s annual sales have not yet returned to the levels recorded in the Spanish market before the crisis. In 2006, for example, TW sold 379 properties and recorded turnover of around €130 million.

The majority of the homes that Taylor Wimpey promotes in Spain are acquired by British citizens who want to have a second residence in this country. According to data from the Association of Registrars (el Colegio de Registradores), citizens from the UK accounted for a fifth of the acquisitions made by foreigners in the Spanish market in 2015.

Spain is the only country outside of the UK where Taylor Wimpey has a presence. After recognising provisions for around €60 million between 2007 and 2010 to reflect the decrease in the value of its developments and land in Spain, the company started buying land again on the Costa del Sol and in Mallorca, where it forecast future demand from overseas investors. During the crisis, Taylor closed its operations in Gibraltar.

In the British market, Taylor Wimpey sold 13,341 homes in 2015, which represented an increase of 7%. According to Anthony Codling, analyst at Jefferies, “Taylor has had a clear strategy since the outbreak of the financial crisis – it focuses on margin rather than volume and invests in strategic locations (only)”.

The company’s share price rose by 0.62% yesterday, taking its cumulative increase over the last year to 61%. Its market capitalisation amounts to GBP 6,300 million in total.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Casado)

Translation: Carmel Drake

BBVA Forecasts A 10% Increase In House Sales In 2015

4 December 2015 – El Economista

BBVA Research, the financial institution’s research service, says that house sales will grow by 10% in 2015 and that in 2016, the real estate sector will finally leave behind the recession and will consolidate its growth.

Those were the main conclusions drawn by the latest Real Estate Watch Spain report published by BBVA on Thursday, which says that the sector is showing positive signs and that the available data indicates a significant improvement in demand, in an environment characterised by an increase in credit and the stabilisation of prices.

Moreover, the report explains that the scarce supply of new homes coming onto the market is enabling a significant reduction in the existing stock, to the extent that the supply is even running out in the most active markets.

This year is also seeing a significant improvement in the amount of activity undertaken by property developers, says BBVA, which means that in 2015 the residential construction segment is going to positively contribute to GDP for the first time since the start of the crisis.

The report notes that the recovery in demand, initiated in 2014, has strengthened during the course of 2015. In fact, it forecasts that the current year will end with around 400,000 house sales, i.e. an increase of around 10% compared with 2014.

This rate of sales will accelerate during the fourth quarter and the trend will continue into 2016, say the experts at the bank, who highlight that improvements in the fundamentals of demand are driving this trend.

Specifically, it mentions the recovery of the labour market and the increase in household disposable income, the positive developments in the financial markets and the stabilisation of residential prices, the strong performance of house purchases by overseas citizens, and an environment characterised by financial stability with interest rates on mortgages at historical lows.

Prices

Meanwhile, the report sets out that the growth in demand, in the context of a reduction in supply, lends itself to the stabilisation of house prices.

According to BBVA, prices have begun their journey through the recovery phase of a new cycle, a recovery that is currently undergoing a period of stabilisation and one that is happening more slowly than in previous cycles.

By type of asset, the bank observes a similar evolution in terms of both new housing and second-hand housing. Nevertheless, it clarifies that, whilst price decreases have been more intense in the second-hand segment, the recovery has begun more quickly in the new build segment.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

Why Did Foreigners Buy 72,000 Homes In Spain In 2014?

8 May 2015 – Expansión

When it comes to buying homes in Spain, foreigners are primarily motivated by the quality of life, the sun and good flight connections to their home countries.

The volume of house sales increased by 21.6% in 2014. In total, 365,594 transactions were closed, according to the Ministry of Development. It is clear that the real estate market has begun its recovery and, to a large extent, that is due to the interest that the real estate market is sparking amongst investors from overseas. Purchases by foreign residents in Spain have grown in recent months, partly due to the incentives that the Government has introduced – mainly the residence visa – but above all due to the opportunities offered by the real estate market here. Foreigners purchased more than 72,000 homes in Spain last year and the average transaction value was €152,000.

But, who are these foreigners that are purchasing homes in Spain and what is it that draws them to our country? “Many of these overseas investors are tourists who come to Spain on holiday and after spending time here, decide to invest in a second home”, says a study performed by TM Grupo Inmobiliario, which has a stand at the SIMA (Salón Inmobiliario de Madrid or Madrid Real Estate Fair) being held until 10 May. “They are primarily motivated by the quality of life, the sun and good flight connections to their home countries”, says the report, which concludes that the profile of the average purchaser is a man, aged 53 years-old, with children. On average, these purchasers have an annual income of €66,000. There is also a significant percentage of resident buyers in our country who are making Spain their new home given the improvement in the economic environment.

Britons are the nationality most interested in purchasing homes in our country; they accounted for 18.62% of all transactions closed by foreigners (in 2014). They are followed by the French (9.39%), Germans (7.25%), Belgians (6.90%), Italians (6.13%), Russians (5.83%), Swiss (5.83%), Chinese (4.14%) and Norwegians (3.74%). In recent years, interest from Russian nationals in Spain had increased significantly, but the decline in the Ruble and in the price of petrol (last year) reduced their desire to purchase. There is also a great deal of interest from Mexicans and Colombians in buying a home in our country, but in absolute terms the numbers are not yet significant. The vast majority of them have a high purchasing power and are buying second homes here.

The decrease in house prices has not affected all areas equally, but overseas investors are primarily interested in three main areas: the Mediterranean Coast (Barcelona, Alicante, Girona and Málaga), the Islands (above all Mallorca, Ibiza and Tenerife) and Madrid.

Original story: Expansión (by E.V.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain property: Madrid waits for the signal to ‘go’

27 April 2015 – Financial Times

Is the influx of Latin American buyers a sign the capital has turned a corner?

Over the past decade and a half, making even a modest investment in Madrid’s housing market has been a bit like taking a rollercoaster ride. Since the market reached its peak in early 2008, average house prices in Spain have dropped by 35 to 40 per cent, according to a report issued in March by the Spanish Savings Banks Foundation, known by its acronym Funcas. New developments on the outskirts of Madrid have been some of the hardest hit.

Other figures suggest an even greater drop in values: also in March, the Spanish property portal Fotocasa.es calculated that the average home in Spain has lost 45 per cent of its value since the peak of the Spanish housing boom, with values in Madrid (a 44.6 per cent drop) representative, more or less, of Spain as a whole.

But both Funcas and Fotocasa.es report glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel: Fotocasa.es recorded a 1 per cent increase in home prices in Madrid in February, while Funcas says that the Spanish housing market is now in an “incipient, gradual recovery”.

As in Barcelona and the Balearic Islands, where small price rises have also been recorded in recent months, overseas buyers are helping to create a mild sense of optimism.

In Madrid, the most enthusiastic foreign homebuyers are heading from across the Atlantic, rather than Europe, according to Alberto Costillo, prime residential director at Knight Frank Spain. A “perfect storm” is bringing a new wave of wealthy Latin American house-hunters to Madrid, particularly from Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela.

“Madrid has advantages of culture and language, and Latin American buyers have long thought of Madrid as a safe haven. But with an improving Spanish economy, and the recent fall in the value of the euro [Latin Americans are more likely to have savings in dollars than euros], they see now see a real opportunity here,” says Costillo.

With its pretty boating lake and rows of statues, many wealthy foreign buyers look to purchase property near the city’s celebrated Retiro Park.

In the grid-like Salamanca district adjacent to Retiro Park, Knight Frank is selling a three-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment with 187 sq metres of living space, parquet floors and air conditioning in a building dating from the early 20th century for €1.47m.

In the well-heeled neighbourhood of El Viso, part of the Chamartín district north of the city centre, a 402 sq metre duplex apartment with four en suite bedrooms and a txoko — a combined cooking and dining space more commonly found in homes in the Basque Country — has an asking price of €4m. On sale through the agency Rimontgó, the unit has three parking spaces and the building has a pool and a gym for residents’ use.

“[El Viso is] quiet and exclusive, but also well-connected with the rest of the city and within easy reach of the downtown,” says José Ribes, director-general of the agency handling the sale. “This is a part of town most associated with aristocrats and intellectuals, but in recent years it has attracted people working in the financial sector, politicians and sportsmen.”

Salamanca and Chamartín are home to many of Madrid’s best restaurants. The capital has 12 Michelin-starred restaurants, compared with 23 in Barcelona. But Madrid is the only one of the two cities with a three-star restaurant — David Muñoz’s DiverXO, where dishes are called “canvases” and diners are asked to arrive “with an open mind”.

Central districts of Madrid are densely populated, but some of the city’s satellite communities, particularly to the northwest, offer more leg room for buyers. In Pozuelo de Alarcón, nestling among pine trees and benefiting from cool breezes from the nearby Sierra de Guadarrama mountains, a gated housing estate called La Finca is home to some of the capital’s wealthiest residents, including footballers from Real Madrid such as Cristiano Ronaldo.

Typical of the sprawling, cubist-style homes at La Finca is a five-bedroom, seven-bathroom house with almost 2,000 sq metres of living space. The property has a two-bedroom housekeeper’s apartment, a lift, indoor and outdoor pools, a gym, a sauna, a cinema, a wine cellar and a carport for six vehicles. On sale through La Finca Real Estate for €11m, the house stands on a plot of just over a hectare. However, according to one estate agent who prefers to remain anonymous, potential buyers are sometimes put off La Finca “because of its reputation as a playground for soccer stars”.

On Calle de Serrano, a broad, tree-lined avenue in the Salamanca district which is sometimes referred to as Madrid’s golden mile for its high-end shopping, there are few signs of the economic downturn, dubbed la crisis in Spain. However, the recession has hit some of the city’s public infrastructure.

Guillermo Bernardo, a former banker with two young daughters who now runs his own cabinet-making business, points to cutbacks in the maintenance of neighbourhood parks and gardens. “The Retiro is Madrid’s calling card, and it’s immaculate, but there is less money these days to clean and repair local playgrounds,” he says. “The perception that most people have is that the state of the economy hasn’t changed a lot but we may be about to turn a corner. Nothing is forever, not even la crisis”.

Buying guide

● Buyers should budget 6 per cent of the sale price to cover land registry taxes

● Estate agents typically charge vendors a commission of 3 to 5 per cent

● Madrid has the third largest metropolitan area in the EU by population size

● Units in a building without a lift are unpopular and may be difficult to resell

● Madrid has hot, dry summers and cool, usually sunny, winters

● Violent crime is rare but pickpocketing and bag snatching can be a problem

What you can buy for . . .

€500,000 A modern, 90 sq metre flat with two bedrooms in the Chamartín district of Madrid

€1m A 140 sq metre, three-bedroom apartment in the Salamanca district, within walking distance of Retiro Park

€5m A seven-bedroom house in El Viso with an outdoor pool on a plot measuring 1,000 sq metres

Original story: Financial Times (by Nick Foster)

Edited by: Carmel Drake