4 March 2018 – Expansión
Property developers and Socimis are two sides of the same coin on the stock market. The two large segments of the listed real estate sector in Spain are moving at different speeds on the stock market after the 2017 results season. Whilst the Socimis, which specialise in the rental of non-residential buildings, are maintaining their cruising speeds, the purely residential property developers are being punished by investors, especially in the case of Neinor.
The company led by Juan Velayos has recorded a share price decrease of 18% this year, reaching its lowest levels since it started trading on the stock market at the end of March last year.
The property developer has just presented its results for 2017, which reveal that it registered a loss of €4.6 million despite generating revenues of €225 million. Moreover, just €77 million of the revenue figure proceeded from the property development business, with the delivery of 313 homes, a rate that is well below the 4,000 units that the firm promises to reach within two years (2020). For 2018, its objective is to hand over 1,000 homes. Investors have penalised the announcement that the company is not going to be able to maintain the volume of house deliveries forecast in its initial roadmap either this year or next.
The market’s reaction against Neinor has been virulent. “The time it takes to obtain licences is getting longer and the curve of expected deliveries for 2019 is being delayed until 2020”, explains Velayos, who acknowledges that “we measured poorly”. The company has revealed that it is going to change its strategy of buying only “finalist” land (plots that already have the necessary licences for development) and is going to invest €200 million buying land under management, which is more abundant in terms of supply but which will involve much longer construction times.
Like Neinor, Aedas is also trading below its debut price on the stock market. Its share price has lost just over 9% of its value so far this year and did not vary following the results. During its first year of activity, the real estate company created with land purchased by the fund Castlelake over the last few years recorded revenues of €38.6 million, with a net margin of €12.2 million and a loss of €40.1 million. The losses are due primarily to non-recurring expenses relating to the company’s stock market debut, which had a negative impact of €31.55 million, and a one-off cost of €26.1 million linked to the incentive plan for senior management (…)
Following the cumulative punishment this year, the discount on the net value of their assets amounts to around 5% in the case of Neinor and reaches the double digits in the case of Aedas. But, are they attractive prices? (…). For the time being, analysts are maintaining their ‘buy’ recommendations for the pair (…).
Moreover, the experts consider that both Neinor and Aedas have a bullish potential of around 35% from their current levels (…).
In the case of the classic real estate companies, the results have been varied. Quabit (…) saw its turnover decrease significantly, by more than 80%. The company has handed over just six homes this year, after years focusing on its financial restructuring and the sale of its stock. Now, it has launched an ambitious business plan, which will allow it to resume its property development activity and its share price is up by 6% on the stock market so far this year.
Meanwhile, the Socimis are experiencing a different reality. The four large real estate investment companies (…) debuted on the stock market in 2014 with a combined valuation of €2.6 billion and no assets on their balance sheets. Now, their combined market capitalisation stands at more than €9.3 billion and their portfolios are worth more than €18.6 billion. Including Colonial, the combined profit of these companies has grown by almost €1 billion YoY.
The valuations of the Socimis are much more adjusted. The large players have closed the first two months of the year with share price gains of between 4% and 5%, with the exception of Axiare, which has been limited by the takeover price set by Colonial (…).
Original story: Expansión (by Rocío Ruiz and Enrique Utrera)
Translation: Carmel Drake