College of Registrars Creates New CPI Indicator for RE Sector: the IRAI

4 December 2017 – El Confidencial

The recovery of the real estate sector is now a reality that nobody doubts. In fact, activity in the sector in Spain has been growing in a sustained way since 2014, far from the minimum levels of 2013, but also a long way from the peak heights. The volume of – new build and second-hand – transactions is rising; more mortgages are being granted; property prices are recovering; and new build permits are increasing. Moreover, the number of companies linked to the sector filing for creditor bankruptcy is also decreasing. Each one of these parameters has its own indicators proceeding from different sources (e.g. Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), real estate websites, appraisal companies, Ministry of Development…), that show the evolution of those specific parameters.

Nevertheless, from now on, there is going to be a new indicator that groups them all together and, through a complex weighting system, shows the overall evolution of activity in the real estate sector. This new indicator is the Real Estate Activity Registry Index (IRAI), compiled by the College of Registrars. According to its creators, it is set to be called the CPI of the real estate market, given that its preparation adopts a very similar methodology to that used by INE to measure inflation.

The indicator takes the year 2003 as the base year (100); it serves as the reference for analysing the evolution of real estate activity. In this way, for example, during the third quarter of this year, the IRAI amounted to 98.26% points, 30% below the maximum levels of 2007, the year the real estate bubble burst. During the first 3 months of that year, the index reached its maximum, 139.90 points. Nevertheless, since the historical minimum of 68, to which it fell in 2013, the sector has risen by 45% to date. Like in the case of CPI, the IRAI can be softened or purified to avoid seasonality, in which case, it amounts to 94.34 points.

This new index is a synthesis of different indicators. It includes real estate transactions, mortgage financing and, in addition to the above, another set of commercial activity indicators, such as the number of company constitutions, economic variables from filed annual accounts and bankrupt companies, in all cases relating to the construction and real estate sectors. For its launch, the College of Registrars has constituted a Committee of Experts, advisors from the college in each aspect listed above, who have been responsible for preparing the index and determining the weighting of each one of the indicators in the index. The IRAI will be prepared on a quarterly basis (…).

Evolution of the IRAI so far this year

The variation in the IRAI since January has been an increase of 10.12%, representing the cumulative impact of the ownership element (9.55%) and the commercial element (0.57%). In other words, the part corresponding to house sales and financing has pushed up the index by the most, compared to the boost from commercial activity. In December last year, the IRAI amounted to 89 points, compared to 98.26 now.

In this way, the groups with the greatest positive cumulative impact so far this year have been sales (cumulative impact of 6.98%) due to the significant rise in the number of sales (cumulative impact of 6.11%), especially of new and second-hand homes with growth rates of 31.87% and 27.06% and cumulative impacts of 1.19% and 4.14%, respectively.

Sales prices also grew by 3.74% (impact of 0.87%) with the price of second-hand homes having a greater impact (impact of 0.9% with a growth rate of 5.91%). Meanwhile, mortgages (cumulative impact of 2.56%) due to the significant increase in the number of mortgages (cumulative impact of 2.05%), especially for new and second-hand homes with growth rates of 21.65% and 15.42% and cumulative impacts of 0.92% and 0.94%, respectively.

From the commercial perspective, the greatest boost to activity has come from the decrease in the number of creditor bankruptcies involving both construction companies, which have decreased by 83%, and real estate companies, which have fallen by 57% (…).

Original story: El Confidencial

Translation: Carmel Drake

Ministry Of Development: Housing Permits Rise By 37%

30 September 2016 – Expansión

The number of housing permits granted by the college of technical architects soared by 37% during the first seven months of the year, to reach 39,497, the best figure between January and July since 2011, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Development.

Despite the increase, residential construction permits are still a long way from the highs recorded in 2007, when at the height of the boom, 448,991 permits were granted between January and July, i.e. 91% more than have been issued so far this year.

The number of housing permits started the year (2016) with an increase of 44% to 4,943. In February, the YoY increase was 35%, as 5,663 permits were granted, whilst in March the figure doubled to 6,176. In April, the increase was more moderate, up by 6.5% to 4,795 permits and in May the number soared by 79% to 7,985. In June, the figure rose by just 0.6% and in July, double-digit growth returned with an increase of 21%.

The total number of permits granted for new builds, renovations and extensions during the seven months to July was 56,407, which represents an increase of 24.6% with respect to 2015.

By property type, the number of permits granted to construct block housing rose by 45.5%, to 29,362 licences, whilst the number granted for family homes grew by 17% to 10,129.

In terms of surface area, the average size of family homes amounted to 200 sqm, whilst the average size of apartments in block housing stood at 117 sqm.

Since the Ministry of Development began to prepare these statistics in 1991, the number of permits reached their historical monthly minimum in August 2013, when just 1,585 permits were granted. The historical monthly maximum was recorded in September 2006, when 126,753 permits were granted.

Original story: Expansión

Translation: Carmel Drake