Merlin Enters the Top 10 Ranking of the Largest Logistics Owners in Europe

19 June 2019 – Cinco Días

Merlin Properties has been a major player in the European office and shopping centre markets for several years. But now, the Socimi led by Ismael Clemente has entered the Top 10 ranking of the largest logistics owners on the Continent, with its portfolio of 1.6 million m2 under management, according to a report about the logistics market compiled by Deloitte.

The Top 10 ranking is led by the listed US firm Prologis (17 million m2); Logicor, the firm controlled by China Investment Corporation and Blackstone, (13.5 million m2); and the fund manager CBRE GI (7.7 million m2). They are followed by the logistics specialists Segro, P3 Logistics Parks and Goodman.

Merlin owns 1.1 million m2 of logistics space outright and holds a 48% stake in a company that owns another 469,000 m2 of logistics space in the port of Barcelona. It also has 1.254 million m2 of surface area under development.

Investment in logistics assets is currently breaking records across Europe and in Spain, in particular, boosted by attractive returns and the boom in e-commerce. With the rising demand, the availability of high-quality warehouses is decreasing, hence the need to build more. According to Deloitte, investment in warehouse purchases amounted to €1.5 billion last year, the second best year ever after 2017, when the figure reached €1.6 billion.

Merlin is planning to invest €484 million in its Best II and Best III logistics funds between now and 2022. Most will be targeted in Madrid and its surrounding areas (Guadalajara and Toledo) and Cataluña, but investment will also be made in Lisbon, Zaragoza, Sevilla and Vitoria.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Alfonso Simón Ruiz)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Funds, Socimis, El Corte Inglés & Seur Compete in the Urban Logistics Segment

9 March 2019 – Expansión

Investors and logistics operators alike are setting their sights on urban hubs to benefit from the boom in e-commerce. According to data from CBRE, investment in the logistics sector is thriving – it amounted to €2 billion in 2017, €1.5 billion in 2018 and is forecast to reach €1.2 billion in 2019. Active players in the sector include the Singapore sovereign fund through its Socimi P3, Blackstone, Prologis, Logicor, CBRE GI and Montepino, and Merlin, amongst others.

Urban hubs are gaining significant weight in the sector thanks to their ability to reduce transport costs, avoid the new traffic restrictions and resolve the problem of product returns.

According to the CNMC, Correos and Correos Express currently deliver 44% of all packages in Spain, followed by MRW and Seur (14% each) and DHL (4.5%).

In terms of retailers operating in this space, Amazon set the ball rolling by opening a logistics centre in the heart of the Eixample district of Barcelona and in the Méndez Álvaro area of Madrid. Other large retailers are following suit by opening distribution centres inside major cities, such as Decathlon, MediaMarkt, Ikea, Aki, Carrefour and Worten.

The investment firm Azora has also announced its intention to invest €250 million in logistics hubs in urban centres, which it will lease to delivery specialists such as Seur, DHL and MRW. Seur already has eleven urban logistics centres and plans to open another nine this year. Meanwhile, DHL already has ten such hubs and plans to open two more this year.

In the same vein, the department store giant El Corte Inglés has also launched an ambitious omnichannel logistics strategy, which will convert its 94 shopping centres into storage points for the management of online purchases.

Original story: Expansión (by I. de las Heras & R. Arroyo)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Blackstone Negotiates the Purchase of 37 Logistics Centres from Neinver for €290M

22 November 2018 – Eje Prime

Blackstone is on a mission in the Spanish logistics sector. The US giant is finalising the purchase of 37 logistics centres that the Spanish group Neinver and the Californian fund Colony Capital own in the country, which span a total surface area of 261,000 m2, for €290 million.

In this way, Neinver, owned by the businessman José María Losantos, and Colony will put an end to an alliance that was created in 2015 to invest €200 million over the medium term in properties relating to the logistics sector in Spain, according to reports from Expansión.

For Blackstone, the operation represents a new boost to its investment strategy in Spain, where it already owns a portfolio worth more than €22 billion. The fund has managed to convert itself into the largest owner of real estate in the country with operations in the residential, hotel and logistics sectors.

In terms of this latest segment, the group already owns 1 million m2 of industrial space in Spain, through Logicor, in which it retains a 10% stake. In July, Blackstone purchased Lar’s logistics portfolio for €120 million, its first major industrial acquisition in the country.

Meanwhile, Neinver divides its activity between investment in land and logistics warehouses and the management of 19 outlets. The group carries out its activity in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, France, the Czech Republic and Poland. Moreover, Colony Capital is a US company specialising in real estate operations with USD 44 billion in assets under management.

Original story: Eje Prime

Translation: Carmel Drake

Logistics: Real Estate’s Ugly Duckling Sees its Investment Figures Soar

30 September 2018 – El Confidencial

It has always been the ugly duckling of the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the boom in e-commerce, the positive evolution of consumption and of the economy, in general, and real estate in particular, has triggered investment in these types of assets. For more than a year now, the sector has been starring in some of the most high-profile operations in the market, both at the corporate level, as well as in terms of the sale of portfolios and assets, attracting money from large international funds, as well as from domestic ones.

The data speaks for itself. Investment in logistics during the third quarter of 2018 – including plots of land – amounted to €450 million, equivalent to four times more than during the second quarter and 436% more than the figure registered during the same period a year earlier. That is according to data from the consultancy firm JLL, which shows that investment amounted to €872 million between January and September, 53% more the volume accumulated during the same period in 2017.

Moreover, the firm’s forecasts for the final stretch of the year for this sector are optimistic. “We expect the total volume to amount to €1.2 billion by the end of the year, 20% more than we expected last quarter, due to the good results and the fact that strong investor appetite is still alive”, said Borja Ortega, Director of Capital Markets at JLL.

“The logistics market is the absolute star of the real estate investment market in Spain. Investors see the potential associated with a market that has been growing for years”, says Ortega. Why? Its own fundamentals, the lack of product for investing in other segments such as offices and retail or the creation and consolidation of investors specialising in logistics”, he said.

In the last year and a half, the logistics sector has captured the media’s attention thanks to the completion of several very high profile operations. For example, on 25 September, Mango’s logistics platform in Barcelona was sold for €150 million. That asset, with a surface area of 181,000 m2 and owned by the Belgian investor group VG Partners since the end of 2016, was sold to the British Socimi Tritax Big Box.

It represented the largest investment in a single asset in the Spanish logistics market for the last four years since Logicor purchased some logistics facilities in Guadalajara spanning more than 320,000 m2 from Gran Europa for €133 million.

The operation also exceeded the €119 million that Blackstone paid in July to acquire the Socimi Lar’s logistics portfolio. In total, that deal involved 162,000 m2 of space spread over four logistics warehouses in Alovera (Guadalajara), one in the Juan Carlos I industrial estate of Almussafes (Valencia) and a plot for logistics development in Cheste (Valencia) spanning a further 182,000 m2.

Assets, portfolios, corporate operations

During the third quarter, there was a lot of movement in the sector such as the sale of two logistics portfolios – Hina Project with 6 warehouses and Gran Europa Portfolio with 3 warehouses – four purchases of logistics warehouses and a project comprising two plots in Cabanillas. Those transactions were accompanied by the purchase of two plots, one on the Centro —Ciudad del Transporte Industrial Estate in Guadalajara – and another in San Fernando de Henares. The latter was acquired by Merlin Properties for the construction of a logistics platform measuring 100,000 m2 (…).

All of these operations are happening in the midst of a genuine boom in e-commerce and online sales, a market in which the major online operators such as Amazon, Mercadona and Inditex have committed heavily. And for good reason, given that in 2017 alone, online sales moved more than €30 billion, according to data from the Spanish National Competition and Markets Commission (CNMC). And that figure is rising.

But the appetite of buyers is not only limited to the purchase of assets. At the corporate level, there have also been some significant transactions in recent months. A year ago, China Investment Corporation (CIC) completed the purchase of Logicor for €12.25 billion, one of the largest logistics companies in Europe and the largest owner of logistics assets in the Spanish market with a portfolio spanning more than 1 million m2 located primarily in Madrid and Barcelona. That operation became the second largest real estate purchase in history and the fourth largest by a Chinese company in Europe.

Meanwhile, P3 Spain Logistic Park, the logistics centre Socimi that the sovereign fund Singapore GIC owns in Spain, made its debut on the Alternative Investment Market (MAB) last year with eleven logistics centres that span a total surface area of 321,392 m2 and which are spread across five autonomous communities, although most are in Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha.

Even the Murcian businessman, Trinitario Casanova, through Grupo Baraka has backed the logistics sector. In February this year, he purchased a logistics-industrial use plot located in the municipality of Sant Esteve Sesrovires, in Barcelona.

A sector traditionally forgotten

“For years, the logistics sector has been one of the ‘great forgottens’ of the real estate sector. Nevertheless, today it is clearly a segment to which investors pay a lot of attention. (…). In fact, given the competitive pressure, it is the only sector where returns are continuing to fall. Prime returns at the end of the third quarter of 2018 amounted to 5.25%, making them lower than during the last upward cycle in 2006, when they amounted to 5.75%”, said Ortega.

On the other hand, unlike what has happened in other real estate sectors such as residential or offices, whose activity is concentrated in the major cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, 34% of logistics investment in the third quarter has been in Cataluña and 32% in Madrid. The rest has been concentrated in other regions such as Valencia (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Blackstone has Created a RE Giant in Spain Worth €20bn

4 September 2018 – Expansión

In just five years, the US fund has become the largest owner of hotels and one of the biggest landlords in the country. Moreover, it manages several major mortgage portfolios.

Blackstone made its first foray into the Spanish real estate market in July 2013, with the purchase from the Municipal Housing and Land Company of Madrid (EMVS) of 18 residential developments, containing 1,860 homes in total, in the Madrilenian neighbourhoods of Carabanchel, Centro, Villa de Vallecas and Villaverde for almost €126 million.

Since then, the US fund, one of the largest investment firms in the world, has turned the Spanish real estate sector into one of its favourite destinations for investment, encouraged by the boom that the market in Spain has experienced over the last five years.

Blackstone’s dominance in the Spanish market is now unquestionable. Since 2012, the US fund has acquired property in the country worth almost €20 billion and it is now the owner of several listed vehicles, as well as of some of the main asset managers in the country.

With that figure, which accounts for 20% of the €100 billion that Blackstone Real Estate has invested around the world, the firm is the country’s largest private manager of real estate assets, including properties and portfolios of mortgages.

In Spain, the fund was one of the first to back the residential segment when the real estate market was still struggling and it has been one of the most active players in the purchase of asset portfolios containing NPLs and REOs from financial institutions.

The fund’s purchase of homes in Madrid from EMVS in 2013 was soon followed by the acquisition of another 1,000 social housing properties from Sareb and FCC. Those homes are owned by Fidere, the fund’s first Socimi, which made its debut on the Alternative Investment Market (MAB) in 2015.

In the same year, Blackstone completed its first major operation with the purchase from Catalunya Caixa of a portfolio comprising 40,000 loans in total, worth €6.4 billion. Blackstone paid €3.5 billion for that portfolio, known as Hercules.

A year later, the US fund purchased the Catalan entity’s real estate manager (without any assets), which was later renamed Anticipa.

Nowadays, that company manages the more than 12,000 rental homes which Blackstone has been purchasing from the banks in different portfolios and which it controls through the Socimi Albirana, which made its stock market debut in 2016, and Torbel Investments.

Popular’s property

Two years after purchasing the Hercules portfolio, Blackstone hit the headlines again with the purchase from Santander of 51% of Banco Popular’s real estate business, with a book value of around €10.3 billion. With that acquisition, Blackstone increased its commitment to Spain and become the most active overseas investment fund in the country. To group together those assets, months later, Blackstone and Santander created Project Quasar Investment, a company that also includes the marketing platform Aliseda (…).

In addition, (…) the US fund has launched itself into the hotel segment, to take advantage of the good times being enjoyed in the tourist sector at the moment. Blackstone’s first incursion into that market in Spain was the acquisition of HI Partners from Sabadell last summer for €630 million. Through that platform, Blackstone owns 17 hotels in Spain comprising more than 4,500 rooms.

Takeover of Hispania

A few months after that acquisition, the US investment firm made a bid for Hispania, the Spanish Socimi specialising in hotels managed by Azora, which owns 46 assets and almost 13,150 rooms in Spain (…). Following that operation, which valued the Socimi at €1.99 billion, the US fund controls almost 91% of Hispania.

As well as hotels, Hispania owns 25 office buildings, with a market value of more than €600 million and residential assets worth €230 million, which now also form part of the fund’s assets (…).

Blackstone is also a star player in the logistics sector. The fund currently controls 10% of the Pan-European platform Logicor, which manages approximately 1.2 million m2 of logistics space in Spain (…).

Also, in July, it purchased five logistics warehouses from the Socimi Lar (…) for almost €120 million.

The fund’s most recent purchase was the headquarters of Planeta, located on Avenida Diagonal in Barcelona, which it acquired from the Lara family for €210 million (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Deloitte: Spain’s Logistics Sector is Hot Property Thanks to the ‘Amazon Effect’

18 May 2018 – Expansión

Investment funds want to take advantage of the collateral effects that the boom in e-commerce is going to have in the real estate market by taking positions in a segment with great potential, namely: the storage of goods and products. The logistics segment has become the “golden girl” of the real estate sector and one of the favourites of investors boosted by strong yields and the expectations of business growth. In this context, Asian investors have placed their focus on the European logistics market.

According to the Logistics Property Handbook compiled by Deloitte, last year, investment in logistics assets in Europe recorded a milestone with €42.5 billion of assets transacted, thanks to mega-operations such as the purchase by China Investment Corporation (CIC) from Blackstone of the Pan-European platform Logicor for €12.2 billion, and the acquisition of the European platform Gazeley by Global Logistic Properties (GLP), headquartered in Singapore, for €2.4 billion.

Mega-operations

In Spain alone, investment in logistics assets amounted to €1.63 billion, which represented a 75% increase compared to the previous year, and a historical record, due to significant transactions involving logistics portfolios. CIC’s purchase of Logicor implied a transaction volume of €652 million in Spain. Meanwhile, P3 Logistic Park – owned by the Singapore sovereign fund, GIC – purchased 11 assets from Green Oak in Spain for €243 million. Those operations boosted investment to historic levels.

Moreover, last year, Mango sold its logistics centre in Palau-Solità I Plegamans (Barcelona) to the fund manager Invesco for €100 million. That transaction was the largest involving a single asset in Spain and the fourth-largest in Europe.

According to the forecasts in the report, operations in the pipeline, which may be closed this year, already amount to €980 million.

“The large institutional funds that aspire to lead the logistics sector in Europe and around the world are bidding hard to accumulate the largest logistics surface area possible during this economic cycle. The location and size of their international logistics platforms are the two key variables for exercising greater negotiation power and whereby obtain the highest rents from operators”, explains Javier García-Matro, Partner in Financial Advisory at Deloitte.

Despite the record investment figure recorded last year, the volume of assets transacted in Spain represents just 4% of the total European market. “This fact is proof of the growth potential of these types of assets in our country. In 2017 alone, 865,000 m2 of logistics space was handed over in Madrid, Cataluña and Valencia. The strong demand of the current cycle is causing logistics promoters to develop more than 2 million m2 of land in these markets, in both turnkey and speculative projects”, says García-Mateo.

One of the major players in the sector is the Socimi Merlin, which has placed logistics asset at the centre of its growth strategy. Merlin’s expansion plan involves the development of land and turnkey construction, a roadmap that has allowed it to become one of the leaders in the sector in just four years.

The main players

Merlin has 2 million m2 of logistics land, both in portfolio and under management, and its plans involve increasing that volume to 3 million m2 before the end of the economic cycle. Specifically, it plans to spend around €250 million on logistics development over the next four years.

Another important player is Logicor, the Pan-European platform, which has been controlled by the Chinese group GIC since last year and which owns 1.2 million m2. Meanwhile, the alliance formed by the real estate manager CBRE GI and its local partner Montepino is going to develop a portfolio of prime assets in the main geographic areas of Spain with a planned investment of around €300 million.

They are joined by the European giants Prologic and the platform P3 Logistic Parks, which own 900,000 m2 and 400,000 m2, respectively, as well as the European investment group VGP, which owns almost 400,000 m2 of logistics space in Spain.

In terms of the types of assets, the Amazon effect has revolutionised the industrial sector and forced logistics operators to reinvent themselves to adapt to the new needs of clients (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Blackstone Increases Volume of Spanish RE Acquired During the Crisis to €20bn

6 April 2018 – Voz Pópuli

With €20 billion, all of Bankia’s pending aid could be returned and the extra pension increase announced by Cristóbal Montoro last week could be applied. That figure is how much Blackstone has committed to the Spanish real estate sector during the crisis.

That €20 billion includes the most recent major investment announced by the US fund, one of the largest in the world, in Hispania. Blackstone has acquired a 16.5% stake in the Spanish real estate company, worth €315 million, and has launched a takeover bid for the whole company, worth €1,900 million.

Even if that operation does not prove successful, Blackstone has already placed €18 billion on the table in real estate acquisitions in Spain in recent years. That figure, which includes debt, represents 7% of the €300 billion that the fund manages in the real estate sector around the world.

At the European level, Spain is one of the fund’s favourite destinations, together with Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Scandinavia.

It is already managing Quasar

Of that €18 billion, the bulk corresponds to the recent acquisition of Popular’s property, which is worth €10 billion. Blackstone controls 51% of the new company that owns the €30 billion in real estate assets inherited from the bank that was sold to Santander.

Another recent operation was Blackstone’s purchase of Sabadell’s hotel subsidiary, HI Partners, for €630 million.

An acquisition in 2014 also stands out involving Catalunya Banc’s problem mortgages, for which it paid €3.6 billion. Moreover, Blackstone has been purchasing assets from CaixaBank, BBVA and Sareb, amongst others, in recent years, and has also made investments in logistics centres through Logicor.

Original story: Voz Pópuli (by Jorge Zuloaga)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Savills Aguirre Newman: Inv’t in Logistics Assets Exceeded €1.5bn in 2017

15 February 2018 – Expansión

Real estate investment in logistics assets exceeded €1.5 billion in 2017, up by 86% compared to the previous year. That figure includes the corporate operation involving Logicor.

The boom in e-commerce, combined with their attractive returns, have placed logistics assets in the spotlight for real estate investors. In this way, last year, the purchase of these types of properties reached a record-breaking €1.5 billion, according to the consultancy firm Savills Aguirre Newman.

That disbursement represents an increase of 86% compared to the previous year and is the highest figure ever recorded for these types of properties in the Spanish market. Nevertheless, the amount does include the corporate operation carried out by Blackstone. The US fund divested its logistics subsidiary, owner of 147 million m2 of space across 17 countries (including in Spain) to China Investment for €12.25 billion.

In the last three months of the year alone, investment in these types of assets exceeded €200 million.

Unlike other types of properties, such as offices, interest in these assets extends beyond Madrid and Barcelona. “The consolidation of economic growth and the gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the logistics market (demand, availability and rental prices) has continued to drive investment in the sector, which, due to the shortage of supply in Madrid and Barcelona, has shifted its interest to secondary markets, such as Zaragoza and Valencia”, say sources at the consultancy firm.

The large operations of the year included P3’s purchase of GreenOak’s portfolio for €243 million.

In fact, the high degree of interest has caused many investors to back the purchase of plots of logistics land for their subsequent development. “Operations involving logistics land, for the development of turnkey and at-risk projects, have become one of the cornerstones of the market. The high demand for space, combined with the shortage of finished products suitable for the requirements of specific demand, is generating a lot of interest in this product”, explain sources at Savills Aguirre Newman.

The boom in operations has already had an impact on the returns offered by these types of properties. “The initial rate of return for the most prime assets was below 6%, but during the course of the year, for some specific operations, the rate amounted to 5.5%, which means that the gentle upwards trend already observed in previous years is being maintained”.

Original story: Expansión (by Rocío Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

CBRE: Logistics Inv’t Rose By 29% To €664M In H1 2017

20 July 2017 – Eje Prime

Investment in the Spanish logistics market soared once more during the first half of the year. Transactions involving logistics assets amounted to €664 million during the first six months of 2017, representing an increase of 29% with respect to the same period last year, when investment stood at €514 million, according to a study prepared by the real estate consultancy firm CBRE.

In the second quarter alone, industrial and logistics investment reached €364 million, a figure that far surpassed the amount recorded in the second quarter of 2016 (€300 million).

According to the consultancy firm, the difference compared to previous years is that the “appeal” of this sector is not concentrated only in Madrid and Barcelona, but rather it extends to other cities, such as Zaragoza, Valencia, Bilbao, Málaga and Sevilla.

Similarly, interest in investment in high-risk projects has been consolidated, due to the growth in the volume of logistics space leased in every city caused by e-commerce. In fact, investors who have never shown any interest in logistics have started to consider the sector as a necessary component of their portfolios, according to CBRE.

Some of the main logistics transactions closed so far this year include GIC’s acquisition of the Acero portfolio, worth €243 million; CIC’s purchase of Logicor’s assets; and Axiare’s acquisition of the second phase of a project located in San Fernando de Henares (Madrid), worth €38 million.

Original story: Eje Prime

Translation: Carmel Drake

Amazon’s Rise Boosts Logistics Leasing In Madrid

12 July 2017 – Cinco Días

Amazon has become the indisputable star of the new wave of expansion being seen in the logistics real estate sector in Spain. By way of example, in the last six months, the US e-commerce giant has starred in two of the largest operations in the sector. The first, involving a warehouse measuring 34,000 m2 in Martorelles (Barcelona) and the second, the largest during H1, in Getafe (Madrid), where it has leased 58,125 m2 of space in total (…).

According to the consultancy firm JLL, the volume of space leased in Madrid, including this deal, has doubled in one year in terms of square metres, to exceed 380,000 m2. Meanwhile, Barcelona continues at the same high rate seen in 2015 and 2016.

“In Madrid, a significant amount of demand has been contained in the market – it was forecast in previous years and has now flourished”, explained Pere Morcillo, Director of Industrial and Logistics at JLL. “All of the large users of logistics space were aware that their warehouses had very high occupancy rates and that the need for new space was imminent”, he added. Another reason is the economic dynamism in the country, after the hard years of crisis, together with the new models of consumption.

“The record level is due to the growth of the Spanish economy, which is based on the growth of exports and domestic consumption, as well as on imports and the growth of online businesses”, said Luis Lázaro, Director of Logistics at the Socimi Merlin Properties.

It is precisely these listed real estate investment companies (Socimi), created from 2014 onwards, and international funds, that have provided the sector with the necessary investment to undertake new projects to construct logistics warehouses. (…). According to the head of JLL: “We have seen Socimis such as Lar and Axiare, and in particular, Merlin, enter the market to buy land. Their logistics investment objectives are so ambitious that they are having to create the stock that didn’t exist before to be able to incorporate it into their portfolios”.

Besides the Socimis, funds such as P3 Logistics Parks, Rockspring, GreenOak, Logicor (sold by Blackstone to China Investment) have starred in the majority of the transactions and new developments seen in Spain in recent months.

Indeed, P3 Logistics will be responsible for Amazon’s macro turn-key project in Illescas (Toledo), a plan that should see the light within the next few weeks with the award of the work tender.

Data from the consultancy firm Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) also reflects the record investment in Madrid. “Logistics operators are responding to a general climate of major activity in consumption and industrial production”, says the report issued by the consultancy. “The new lease contracts are focusing on the first and third rings (around Madrid). Parcel distributors are active in the first ring, primarily in Getafe and San Fernando. Meanwhile, in the third ring, operators are looking for large spaces (spanning more than 20,000 m2) with good locations for high volume logistics. In this segment of the market, the rental price plays a key role”.

This ring contains several key sites, such as Cabanillas del Campo, on the A-2 motorway close to Guadalajara. Similarly, Illescas, on the A-42, which is starting to establish itself through the Amazon project and other warehouses, such as those leased to Toyota and Michelin. In Cataluña, C&W highlights the sites at Camp de Tarragona and Vallès Oriental, which account for two-thirds of the space leased in Barcelona’s area of influence.

In terms of forecasts, the director at Merlin believes that the trend in the logistics sector will continue to be positive. (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Alfonso Simón Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake