Tag: interest rates

BBVA: House Sales Will Rise By 7% In 2017

11 April 2017 – Ok Diario

According to BBVA, the recovery in the real estate sector in Spain “is really taking hold”. The entity forecasts a 7% increase in property sales in 2017 and that investment in homes will grow by 3.2% during the same period. Meanwhile, it predicts that house prices will rise by 2.5%.

These are the most recent forecasts about the sector for 2017 from BBVA, which highlights that the “positive evolution” of the real estate market in 2016 displayed significant geographical heterogeneity, with Madrid, a large part of the Mediterranean Coast and the two island regions leading the recovery.

The entity said that 2017 will be marked by more moderate economic growth forecasts, of 2.7%, compared with 3.2% in 2016, and positive expectations in terms of property price rises.

In this way, the entity expects residential sales to grow by around 7% this year, and for prices to continue their recovery, with an increase of 2.5% YoY.

The revival of the mortgage market in recent years is helping to fuel growth in residential demand, says BBVA. In fact, new loan operations to households to finance the acquisition of a home increased again in 2016 to reach €37,500 million, up by 5% compared to the previous year.

Similarly, construction is continuing to respond positively to the growth in demand and prices, which is why the real estate sector is expected to generate growth for the economy once again. Investment in housing is expected to increase by 3.2%.

Growth with uncertainty

Nevertheless, BBVA warns that a number of risk factors have been building up in recent months, which could limit the scope and speed of the recovery.

Firstly, it warns that uncertainty persists relating to the outcome of Brexit. In addition to this geopolitical factor in Europe, the potential effects of decisions taken by the new administration in the USA and the increase in energy costs should also be taken into account.

Meanwhile, the increase in inflation in the Eurozone may lead to a change in monetary policy. During 2017, the ECB’s stimuli are expected to decrease, which could lead to an increase in interest rates at the end of 2018. “This increase in financial costs represents a risk for the Spanish economy”, said the entity.

In any case, BBVA highlighted that positive financing conditions, and the strong economic outlook, mean that the real estate sector closed 2016 with 460,000 transactions, up by 13.5% compared to 2016 (…).

Last year, the stock of finished housing continued to decline and prices grew by 1.9% on average, which shows that “the industry responded once again to the boost in demand”. Similarly, the number of building permits grew by almost 30% in 2016 to reach 64,000 permits, to record the third consecutive year of recovery. (…).

Original story: Ok Diario

Translation: Carmel Drake

CBRE: Madrid Is EMEA’s 3rd Most Attractive City For RE Investors

30 March 2017 – Mis Oficinas

Madrid is the third most attractive city in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (the EMEA region) for real estate investment. At least that is according to the “Global Investors Intentions 2017” report compiled by CBRE, the leading real estate consultancy and services company in the world, based on a survey of 2,000 international investors.

According to the study, London leads the ranking of the most attractive cities for real estate investment, after it was chosen by 17% of investors. It was followed by Berlin (15.8%) and Madrid (8.4%). Amsterdam and Paris complete the top five (…). For the first time in 2017, cities such as Hamburg and Milan did not appear in the top ten, due to growing concerns from investors about (high) asset prices in some of Europe’s most established markets, following years of increases.

“Madrid is a very attractive city for international investors for a variety of reasons. Prices here are still below those of other markets, and in recent years, some very interesting renovation and development projects have been launched. Similarly, rental income is forecast to rise. These factors caused investment in the Spanish capital to exceed €4,000 million in 2016”, said Paloma Relinque, National Director of Capital Markets at CBRE Spain.

Meanwhile, Spain is ranked sixth in the list of the most attractive countries to invest in, whereby maintaining its top-10 position, against competition from all of the countries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. In this sense, Germany is the market of choice for 22% of those surveyed as an investment market in 2017. It is followed by the United Kingdom (20%), Eastern Europe (10%), Scandinavia (10%) and The Netherlands (9%).

In terms of the sectors that these investors plan to invest in, the office market was mentioned the most, by 34.7% of investors. It was followed by the industrial-logistics sector, chosen by 25.9% of respondents. Nevertheless, one of the most interesting conclusions was the growing appetite for alternative assets, in which 7 out of every 10 real estate investors are now investing. Specifically, real estate debt is the segment that is sparking the most interest amongst investors (31%), followed by leisure and entertainment (27%) – which is the segment that grew by the most in comparison to the previous year – and student halls of residence (25%).

On the other hand, the report described investors’ main concerns for 2017. The most frequently mentioned concern was the risk that interest rates rise more quickly than expected, a fear cited by a quarter of the investors surveyed. It is noteworthy that, despite the numerous elections on the horizon in Europe and their possible implications for the sector, investors place greater importance on the economic climate than on geopolitical matters. The third concern is the fact that prices are forecast to increase and the risk of a possible bubble. (…).

Original story: Mis Oficinas

Translation: Carmel Drake

Fitch: House Prices Are Going to Rise At A Faster Rate Than Salaries

20 February 2017 – El Economista

On Thursday, the ratings agency Fitch warned that access to housing in Spain is going to gradually worsen as a result of the difficulties facing the labour market.

In its report about the outlook for the real estate and mortgage market in 2017, the ratings agency forecasts that house prices in Spain are going to rise at a faster rate than salaries, which means that the accessibility of housing is going to deteriorate.

“Fitch expects the accessibility of housing to gradually worsen given that any recovery in salaries will be lower than the increase in house prices, taking into account the challenges facing the labour market”, said the agency, which added that access to the real estate market will be “especially difficult” for first-time buyers.

Fitch expects the positive trend observed in house prices, which rose by 4% during the third quarter of 2016, to continue thanks to “robust economic growth”, the maturity of the mortgage market and foreign demand, which currently accounts for 13% of transactions.

Nevertheless, it says that the two-speed market will continue, given that the “bulk” of the recovery will focus on homes whose quality and location place them above average.

Slow down due to floor clauses

On the other hand, Fitch thinks that the legal uncertainties surrounding the floor clauses and the reform of the mortgage market will slow down the growth experienced since 2014 for the granting of loans to buy homes.

“The rate of growth in loans will slow down from the levels seen in 2015 and during the first half of 2016, given that Spain’s banks will adopt a more cautious approach in the face of the legal uncertainties that are affecting the mortgage market”, said the agency.

Nevertheless, it considers that the rise in house prices and the favourable loan environment, thanks to low interest rates, are still offsetting the repayment of loans in progress.

Finally, Fitch thinks that Spain’s banks will continue to reduce their exposure to toxic assets by divesting their non-strategic businesses, such as their non-performing loans and foreclosed properties.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

Cranes Return To Spain After Almost A Decade Away

19 December 2016 – La Vanguardia

After nine years away, since the financial crisis first started to crush the real estate bubble in 2007, cranes have returned to form part of the Spanish landscape during 2016, They are a visible sign of the recovery that the real estate sector has been enjoying since 2014.

With just a few weeks to go before the end of the year, real estate investment is on track to set a new record in 2016, of almost €14,000 million, thanks to large-scale operations such as the merger of two giants in the sector, Merlin and Metrovacesa, to create the largest real estate company in Spain, with assets worth more than €9,300 million.

This year, the growth of the economy, improvement in employment, low interest rates, return of financing and the continuous inflow of foreign capital have combined to allow the real estate sector to consolidate its recovery despite the political uncertainty that hung over Spain for most of the year.

After almost a decade of paralysis, the property developers that survived the crisis and others created more recently have set cranes up on the streets, especially in cities with the most economic and tourism activity, where the “stock” is now practically non-existent and demand for new homes a reality.

Quabit is planning to invest €470 million between now and 2020 on the purchase of urban land on which it will build more than 3,000 homes; and Neinor Homes has set itself the objective of launching around 40 new developments this year and selling more than 1,500 homes.

The newly formed company Dospuntos, controlled by the US fund Värde Partners, plans to invest €2,000 million over the next six years and complete 2,000 homes per year from 2019 onwards. Vía Célere has just bought the largest available plot of land in the centre of Madrid from Repsol and Adif, which is ready for the construction of homes.

Inveravante, owned by the business man Manuel Jové, and the real estate subsidiary of BBVA, have joined forces to promote 850 homes; the German investment fund Aquila Capital and Ónice will spend €100 million building luxury homes in La Moreleja; whilst Ibosa will invest another €30 million converting the Hotel Foxá M-30 into homes.

The recovery of the sector is undeniable. According to the notaries, house purchases grew by 10.3% in September, a percentage that rises to 13.2% according to INE, after registering eight consecutive months of increases and growth of 10% in terms of the signing of mortgages for house purchases.

The Ministry of Development calculates that prices rose by 1.6% during the third quarter, to complete 6 consecutive quarters of increases, whilst permits for the construction of new homes soared by 32% in September to reach figures not seen since 2011.

Moreover, house purchases by foreigners grew by 19.7% during the first half of the year, with Britons leading the ranking, despite the threat of “Brexit”. (…).

During 2017, the number of transactions is expected to grow by 6.5% and prices are forecast to rise by 3.5% to reach 2004 levels. Meanwhile, Tinsa estimates that prices will remain stable or will increase by between 1% and 2%, at most, during 2017, in line with forecasts for the end of this year. (…).

Original story: La Vanguardia (by Cora Serrano)

Translation: Carmel Drake

INE: Mortgage Lending Reaches 5 Year High

28 November 2016 – Expansión

The month of September 2016 was the best for the residential mortgage market in the last five years. In total, lenders granted €3,018.5 million to borrwers to acquire homes, the best figure since 2011, which represents an annual increase of 12.5%, according to Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE).

In total, 26,667 mortgages were constituted over homes, up by 10% compared to September 2015. The average mortgage loan amounted to €113,193, up by 2.2% YoY. The value of mortgages constituted over urban properties in general amounted to €4,848.6 million, up by 3.7% compared with September 2015.

Interestingly, the percentage of fixed rate mortgages continued to gain in popularity during September; they accounted for 30% of all mortgage loans, almost one third of the market, compared with 28.3% in August (…).

These loans “are very attractive for potential house buyers given their current conditions and because they protect borrowers against possible increases in interest rates, such as the rise being considered by the ECB”, said Beatriz Toribio, Head of Research at Fotocasa.

The mortgage lending market has been on the road to recovery for more than two years now and that upwards trend was broken only in July 2016, when lending decreased by almost 15% YoY following a suspension in the inscription of some contracts for legal reasons.

Normalisation of the market

The Director of Research at pisos.com, Manuel Gandarias, expects that, as we head towards year end, “mortgage lending will continue to grow as political stability takes hold and above all, the confidence and expectations of the most solvent buyers rises”. “We have have seen two months of adjusted increases in comparison with what the statistics had previously been showing”, he said. For Toribio, the data shows that “mortgage financing is consolidating as a result of low interest rates and the liquidity that exists in the market” and that “the real estate sector is moving towards normalisation”.

In addition, in her opinion, “in 2016, in addition to a significant increase in the number of loans, we have also seen growth in the average amount loaned as a result of the behaviour of prices, which are recovering in the large cities, such as in Madrid and Barcelona, as well as along certain parts of the Mediterranean Coast.

By autonomous region

By autonomous region, the areas that recorded the highest number of mortgages constituted over homes were: the Community of Madrid (5,086), Andalucía (4,788) and Cataluña (4,631).

Nevertheless, the regions that recorded the highest YoY variations in terms of the number of mortgages granted were: La Rioja, with an increase of 59.6%; the Canary Islands, with an increase of 45.2%; and Cantabria, with an increase of 38.5%.

Finally, the regions that lent the most capital for the constitution of mortgages over homes were Madrid (€772 million), Cataluña (€616 million) and Andalucía (€470.1 million).

Original story: Expansión (by J. M. L.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Sareb & CaixaBank: The RE Recovery Is Proving “Selective”

6 October 2016 – El Mundo

Some of the main players in the real estate and finance sector, such as Sareb and CaixaBank, have commented that the recovery that will take place in the housing sector over the next few years will be “selective”. They call for “caution” because the “wounds” of the last decade “are still healing”.

That was one of the conclusions to emerge from the panel debate about financing in the real estate sector at the National Conference of the Association of Property Developers and Constructors in Spain (APCE), which is currently being attended by 400 professionals in Madrid (5 and 6 October).

The Chairman of Sareb, Jaime Echegoyen, has confirmed that although the recovery in the real estate sector is still “selective”, we are seeing “favourable signs that indicate that it is here to stay”. Echegoyen described the current situation in the real estate market as a “sweet moment” thanks to the “favourable factors” at play, such as low interest rates, the professionalization of the sector and growing demand, which is why he highlighted that “it seems like the real estate recovery will last”.

We are doing everything right between us, we have learned the lessons of the past and we are benefitting well from economic growth”, said the Chairman of the bad bank, who added that it is “a reflection of the past and of what we hope for the future”.

Nevertheless, Echegoyen encouraged the sector to work to avoid repeating the erroneous actions of the past, without falling into the trap of financing innovations and, he asked that players “exert caution and a watchful eye”, given that “low interest rates have helped a lot, but they may not last for long”.

In the same vein, the Director General of CaixaBank, Juan Antonio Alcaraz, said that “the wounds are still healing” and he pointed out that entities are still recording a “steady decline” in their mortgage loans to individuals, as they are not “able” to replenish them. Moreover, he criticised the new regulatory standards, such as the code of good practice for the sector, which “have profoundly changed the rules of the game in terms of the relationship between banks and borrowers”, and contributed to the decrease of the loan book.

Nevertheless, Alcaraz clarified that mortgages to individuals are rising at a rate of 50%, but from historical lows, and he explained that we are currently seeing a change in the way that mortgages are granted, with more importance being given to people’s borrowing capacity and to interest rates.

In terms of financing, he warned that the new online platforms that facilitate financing may mean that a time comes when “we tear our hair out”, just like in the past, when it comes to the “problem of regulating” these sources of financing.

In this sense, Alcaraz referred to the impact of changes such as the introduction of floor clauses and the suspension of evictions, which means that legal uncertainty sits at the top of the list of factors that may harm the sector, followed by regulatory and digital issues. (…).

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Marina d’Or Launches Aggressive Marketing Campaign

4 October 2016 – Cinco Días

The former hotel and real estate empire Marina d’Or has launched an aggressive marketing campaign to raise revenues. It has put apartments up for sale from as little as €130,000 and retail premises from €200,000, with a “guaranteed” return of 7%.

The empire created by Jesús Ger began to crumble at the same time as the real estate bubble burst in Spain. The Holiday City, which was advertised in the City of London as the best place to spend the summer and as a golden retirement destination for British pensioners, is resorting to aggressive marketing techniques once again to increase its sales in the short term.

The key to the campaign, which is featuring in most national newspapers, is the slogan… “Guaranteed returns of 7%”. The small print explains that these investment opportunities relate to fully operational retail premises, with an established client base, as well as beach-front apartments. It specifies that the return of 7% with guaranteed rent will be over “1, 2 3 or more years, depending on the agreement”.

The reality is that the entity selling these assets is the hotel subsidiary of the group, which has not filed for bankruptcy, unlike its property developer associate.

Hoteles Marina d’Or has been selling homes and retail premises from €130,000 and €200,000, respectively, since the summer. In theory, the guaranteed return used to be 4%, but in September, that figure was increased to 7%.

How does it work?

The mechanism is simple. The company undertakes to pay that percentage over the purchase price on the basis of a signed contract, if the owner grants it the right to rent out its property in return. “In reality, they are apartments that the hotels already manage and given their locations, it is almost certain that they will be occupied; and as such, we are able to promise such returns”, said a sales agent from Marina d’Or. A spokesperson for the firm added that the sale of these apartments represents a direct cash injection and allows them to consider using this formula with more homes in the future. (…).

The hotel and real estate complex, which has half a dozen hotels, ranging from three- to five-star categories, is also home to several leisure facilities and a large spa. (…) The company, which guarantees annual interest of more than €9,000 per year for a flat costing €130,000, held own funds amounting to €86.2 million at the end of 2014, the last period for which accounts have been deposited in the commercial registry.

The company generated revenues of €38.6 million in 2014, in line with the preceding year. Its profit amounted to €627,000, compared with a loss of more than €1 million in 2013. The debt repayment calendar of Hoteles Marina d’Or, a limited company that is fully owned by Jesús Ger, was clear at the end of 2014. Last year, it had to repay €1.2 million; this year €1.4 million; and in 2017, €2.8 million. In 2018, the amount will increase to €4.6 million and from 2019, to €87.5 million. In total, the company’s debt amounts to almost €100 million. (…)

The return means multiplying the average interest rate on one- and two-year deposits by 30, given that on average such deposits paid out 0.23% in July. Nevertheless, the return is not quite so far-fetched in the real estate world. Sources in the sector acknowledge that it is high, given that holiday apartments offer around 4% in their contracts, and that it depends on the tourist occupancy rates in the area. In any case, there is a risk, given that the hotel company is responsible for paying that interest rate.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Pablo M. Simón y Laura Salces)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Banks Still Own €350,000M Of Toxic Assets

26 September 2016 – Expansión

Spain’s banks still have €350,000 million of problem assets on their balance sheets, which they must get rid of if they want to tackle another major problem that they are now facing: their lack of profitability. Most of them have already strengthened their capital to comply with the regulatory obligations demanded by the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, according to data compiled by the ratings agency Moody’s, based on statistics from the European Banking Authority and the Bank of Spain, the burst of the real estate bubble in 2008 and the subsequent financial crisis have left non-performing loans, properties and deferred loans, with a total value equivalent to one third of Spain’s GDP, on the entities’ balance sheets.

Approximately €140,000 million of the total €350,000 million accumulated on the balance sheets of the entities corresponds to non-performing loans or NPLs, whilst the rest is divided between assets such as property developments and land owned by the banks and loans whose recovery has been postponed because the borrowers have not been able to afford the repayments.

As a whole, this burden is reducing the banks’ ability to handle their other great problem: monetary policy at zero-interest rates. Between January and June 2016, the revenues of the banks listed on the stock market which decreased by 1.3%.

In order to resolve this problem, the large entities are having to resort to the market to get rid of their bad loans, albeit with average discounts of 30% on their original values. Various alternatives are being explored to this end, including the structure being prepared by entities such as Banco Popular, which will debut a subsidiary on the stock exchange containing up to €6,000 million of toxic assets. Other entities are packaging up and selling loans and properties to funds that specialise in their management. According to the consultancy firm Deloitte, Spain’s financial entities currently have problem assets worth €20,000 million up for sale.

The analysts at Moody’s consider that the rate of reduction in the non-performing loan balances of Spanish banks is clear for all to see. “But it is not as visible in terms of the volume of foreclosed properties or deferred loans, which are still classified as performing”, explain María Cabanyes and Alberto Postigo, analysts at the ratings agency. They consider that it is essential that these latter loan categories be included within the “problem” loan balance so as not to hide any of the risks.

Moody’s, which estimates that Spain’s banks have deferred loans amounting to around €100,000 million, highlights that on the basis of the transparency exercises performed by the European Banking Authority, Spain is one of the banking systems that is most exposed to the problems of toxic assets. (…).

For this reason, from 1 October 2016, a new calculation method for recognising provisions against these assets will come into force, imposed by the Bank of Spain. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Daniel Viaña)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Tecnocasa: Second-Hand House Prices Rose By 8% In H1

7 September 2016 – El Mundo

The average price of second-hand housing in Spain rose by 7.99% YoY during the first half of 2016, to €1,666/sqm, according to the XIII Report about the residential market, prepared by Tecnocasa and the University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF) using sale/purchase and mortgage data from the real estate company.

Despite the significant increase, this average price is still well below the maximum values that the market reached at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007, when the average cost per square metre of second-hand homes amounted to more than €3,500. (…).

The city of Barcelona, which saw a price rise of 9.45%, led the increases during the first half of 2016, followed by Málaga (9.21%) and Madrid (9.03%). In this way, the cost per square metre rose to €2,443/sqm in Barcelona, to €1,044/sqm in Málaga and to €1,835 in Madrid.

In this regard, Tecnocasa notes that “we are seeing a two-speed recovery”, given that prices in cities such as Guadalajara, Sevilla, Zaragoza and Valencia increased by less than 2% (during the same period).

At a press conference held to present the report, the Director of the Department for Analysis and Reports at the Tecnocasa Group, Lázaro Cubero, explained that rental prices are also increasing, in the same proportion, and the average mortgage is also rising (€91,808), which represents an increase of 9.8%, although still represent less than half the lending figures in 2007 (€185,462). In this sense, it is worth remembering that the average monthly repayment amounts to €367.

Cubero stated that prices are still “attractive” – they are 52% lower than they were in 2006 for Spain as a whole – and financing conditions are very favourable, thanks to low interest rates, at a time when vendors are still having to apply discounts to their initial asking prices to achieve a sale.

The CEO of the Tecnocasa Group, Paolo Boarini, indicated that financial institutions are still behaving in a conservative way when it comes to granting mortgages: they are granting 73% of the appraisal value, and “it is very hard for people with temporary contracts to obtain a mortgage; self-employed people also face challenges”.

Meanwhile, for the Professor of Economics at the UPF and the coordinator of the report, José García Montalvo, the increase in the uptake of fixed-rate mortgages is “a significant change in the right direction”. He criticised Spain in this regard, stating that variable rate mortgages do not account for 95% of the total market in any other country, given that this means all of the risk in terms of interest rate fluctuations is transferred to the client. (…).

On the other hand, the Tecnocasa Group brokered 4,327 house sales in Spain during the first half of the year, up by 22% compared with the same period in 2015, as well as 1,445 mortgages, up by 28%, through its network of 465 offices (19.23%) and 2,000 sales agents. (…).

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Moody’s: House Prices In Spain Will Rise By 5% In 2016

1 July 2016 – La Nueva España

The credit ratings agency Moody’s has forecast that house prices in Spain will increase by 5% in 2016 as a result of the recovery currently underway in the real estate sector, which is being driven, in turn, by improving economic conditions and the lowest mortgage rates since 2011.

The ratings agency explained that the low mortgage rates are due to increased competition within the banking sector and the historically low interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Euribor, the reference interest rate for mortgages, stood at -0.013% at the end of May.

In this way, Moody’s said that the number of mortgage delinquencies will continue to decline. At the end of December, the rate of mortgage defaults fell below 4.8%, at a time when the average mortgage rate in April stood at 2.03%, its minimum level since 2012.

Nevertheless, the agency explained that the performance and future of the Spanish real estate market will be ”limited” by external economic risks, given the “significant” level of real estate assets that the banks still hold in their portfolios.

“The banks should accelerate the sale of these assets to avoid the risk of oversupply reducing prices in the medium to long-term”, explained the Vice-President of Moody’s, Greg Davies.

Original story: La Nueva España

Translation: Carmel Drake