IPE: Urban Land Prices Will Rise By 10% In 2015

17 June 2015 – Expansión

Land will be the next market to be affected by the change in the economic cycle. That is the main conclusion drawn by the first Land Pulsometer, prepared by the Institute of Business Practices (IPE). The average price of urban land will grow in 2015 “by almost two-digit figures”, according to the study coordinator, José Antonio Pérez, Director of Real Estate at IPE.

In this way, if in 2014, each square metre cost €147 on average, by the end of 2015, it will be worth €160/m2, the highest figure since 2012. “It is a clear turning point” says Pérez, who says that “investment in land has a threefold economic impact, due to its direct, indirect and induced effectcs”. That means, every euro spent on land leaves a final economic footprint of three euros.

This recovery will take place because prices will increase “at double that rate” on the coast and in the major cities, i.e. at around 20%, “especially on the Costa del Sol, in Levante, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands, Madrid, Bilbao, Barcelona and A Coruña”, says Pérez.

These forecasts come a day after the Ministry of Development published its official statistics, which confirmed the beginnings of an upwards trend – from very low figures – in the market for land. During the first quarter, the average price of urban land (per square metre) increased by 5.9%, and in cities (with more than 50,000 inhabitants), the increase was 37.8%. (…)

According to the report, the number of transactions involving buildable plots of land will increase by 5.04% in 2015. Andalucía will account for 22% of operations, followed by Cataluña (16%) and Castilla-La Mancha (11%). (…)

Andalucía and Madrid will generate the most value: €579 million and €508 million, respectively, which means that the two regions alone will account for 42% of the national activity, which will amount to €2,593 million, i.e. 0.25% of GDP. The total impact (direct, indirect and induced) of the market for land will be €7,780 million.

The average price of land in Madrid, the highest in Spain, will exceed €300/m2, followed by the País Vasco and Balearic Islands, where it will exceed €250/m2. (…)

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Housing In 2015: Some Vital Statistics

10 February 2015 – Expansión

For translation of the first part of this article, refer to: Housing In 2015: More Sales And Higher Prices

Vital statistics about the housing sector in 2015

House sales: +7.5%: House sales have returned to positive growth. After seven years of decreases, in which the end of tax reliefs barely affected the market – only in an artificial way – a real increase in the number of house sales was recorded in 2014 (up 2.6%). According to the Real Estate Heart Rate Monitor (Pulsímetro Inmobiliario) from the Institute of Business Practices (Instituto de Práctica Empresarial), 7.5% more sales will be closed in 2015 than last year.

House prices: +2.5%: The key indicator for buyers is price, which, combined with necessity, is the factor that tips the balance towards the purchase of a home or not. According to the Real Estate Heart Rate Monitor, prepared by the Institute of Business Practices, house prices rose by 6.47% last year and will increase by 2.5% in 2015. The average value of homes sold in 2014 was €141,718 and this year will close with an average price of €145,261, i.e. we will see a return to 2012 levels.

Construction: +7.5%: Timidly, slowly, the cranes will return to the skyline of Spain’s major cities. In 2014, the construction of new buildings began to increase. Specifically, 37,418 new builds were started in 2014, an increase of 20% on 2013. In 2015, the upwards trend will continue, but it will be less pronounced. According to the IPE, at least the first brick will be laid on 40,225 homes, i.e. 7.5% more than last year.

Mortgages granted: +2.53%: The number of urban buildings financed through mortgages will return to positive growth after no less than eight years in decline. This year, 306,639 loans will be signed for the purchase of property, i.e. 2.53% more than the 299,064 recorded in 2014. Last year, the total volume of mortgages amounted to €39,472 million, i.e. 13.8% more than in 2013. In 2015, the figure will increase to €41,840 million, i.e. 6% more.

Average mortgage: +3.4%: The average size of the loans granted by financial institutions to cover the purchase of residential property in 2014 was €131,984, i.e. 15.8% higher than in 2013. This year the figure will continue to rise, to reach €136,477, i.e. 3.38% more than last year. The average mortgage is equivalent to 93% of the average sales price of homes (note, we should remember that mortgages are granted for all kinds of real estate property).

Construction permits: +5%: Having seen the beginning – timid but evident – of the recovery in the real estate sector, professionals in the market are starting to glimpse a more promising future. And so, permits for the construction of residential developments will grow again in 2015, after eight consecutive years of marked decreases. This year 64,591 permits will be granted. That is 5% more than last year and 24,000 more than the number of new homes started.

All properties: +1.8%: The report from the Institute of Business Practice focuses on the residential market in particular, i.e. the housing market, but the real estate sector is more broad. If we consider all urban properties – shops, shopping centres, offices, housing – 717,471 properties will change hands in 2015, i.e. 1.8% more than in 2014, the year in which the increase was similar, boosted by the arrival of vulture funds looking to purchase bargain properties with high yields.

Housing stock: -29.1%: For the fourth consecutive year, the number of surplus homes decreased in 2014, from 777,000 in 2013 to 662,761. That is, 115,000 fewer homes or 14.7% of the total. In 2015, the decrease in empty properties will be even greater. According to the IPE’s forecasts, the figure will drop to 469,708 properties this year, i.e. 29.1% fewer (193,000 homes). Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha and Andalucía account for 54% of the total stock.

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake

The Stock Of New Homes Will Fall By 29% In 2015

9 February 2015 – Expansión

The over-supply of properties is decreasing / The number of unsold new homes will decrease from 662,761 in 2014 to 469,700 in 2015.

The puncture in the paroxysm of greed that was the real estate bubble, left a never-ending mummified trail, a sea of properties strewn haphazardly across the country and without exception. In 2008, when the economy crashed, a squirrel could have crossed Spain from Tarifa to Cadaqués jumping from empty home to empty home. Not anymore. Or not through so many empty new homes at least. The stock of new residential property for sale is decreasing significantly, although in absolute terms the number is still high.

That is the view of the 21st Edition of the Real Estate Heart Rate Monitor (XXI edición del Pulsímetro Inmobiliario) published by the Institute of Business Practices (el Instituto de Práctica Empresarial or IPE). The surplus of homes declined in 2014, for the fourth consecutive year, from 777,000 in 2013 to 662,761. In other words, by approx. 115,000 homes or 14.7% of the total.

Furthermore, the decrease will be even greater in 2015. According to the IPE’s forecasts, the figure will drop down to 469,708 residential properties this year, i.e. 29.7% fewer than in 2014. In other words, almost one third of the stock will have vanished in just 12 months. As many as 193,000 homes.

The over-supply of homes reached its peak in 2010, when the developments that had been started in 2008 were completed – residential construction is a process that tends to take around two years. In 2010, the surplus stock amounted to 931,615 homes, slightly less than twice the number of new, empty homes that will be on the market in 10 months time in Spain (note, stock does not include second-hand homes).

Once again in 2014, Valencia was the autonomous region with the highest number of phantom residential properties and the only one to have more than 100,000. This region, which is heavily influenced by coastal second homes, closed 2014 with a stock of 163,098 units, which will decrease by 27.5% in 2015, down to 118,196, according to the forecasts released by MAR Real Estate and the IPE. Valencia accounts for no less than one in four of all surplus properties, i.e. 25% of the total.

It is followed by Castilla-La Mancha, an unequivocal symbol of the legacy of the years of over-heating, which is expected to have 72,944 homes by December (2015), down 13.6% from a year earlier.

The third autonomous region is Andalucía, which is expected to have 59,563 empty homes by the end of the year, i.e. 41% fewer than in 2014 – not for nothing, the Costa del Sol is beginning to recover. These three regions alone account for 54% of the total stock.

Experts predict that the highest reductions in the over-supply of property will take place in the Community of Madrid and Cataluña, where they expect the figures to decrease by half, i.e. from 27,618 to 13,809 in the case of the former; and from 25,353 to 12,676 in the case of the latter.

New homes are already being built in Madrid and Barcelona because some areas have been left with very little stock”, says José Antonio Pérez, Director of Real Estate at IPE. However, there are other provinces, especially those in the East “with a large quantity of homes that are going to be hard to sell”, due to the vast number of properties that are suffering from a double hangover: that of the bubble and that of the nearby sea”.

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake