IPE: Málaga’s Land Shortage Will Drive Up House Prices

29 March 2017 – La Opinión de Málaga

During 2017, the Malagan real estate market is expected to continue along the path to recovery that it began two years ago, however, the lack of available buildable land along the Costa del Sol to meet current demand from developers and investors looks set to limit the growth of the sector. That is according to the

That is according to the Institute of Business Practice (IPE), which presented the 24th edition of its Real Estate Pulsimeter for Málaga last week. It warned that this lack of available buildable land in certain municipalities could result in the future effect of a rise in house prices in certain enclaves. In fact, the Director of the IPE’s Real Estate Practice, José Antonio Pérez (pictured above), said that this “new bubble” is already being seen in some parts of the Costa del Sol.

“There is more demand than available supply and if we do not resolve that mismatch, we will see prices rise again. The main problem is the lack of buildable land, understood as land that is suitable for the presentation of plans and for obtaining a licence. (…)”, he said.

In his opinion, the lack of available supply is due, on the one hand, to the “restrictions” imposed by the PGOU and the slowness of the urban planning procedure in certain towns compared to others, and, on the other hand, to the fact that some of these plots of land are owned by individuals and investment funds that are not interested in developing them, for the time being at least. Pérez pointed out that Sareb still owns lots of plots of land that it took over from financial entities, which are “clogging up the market”, despite the fact that the bad bank is working as fast as it can to find an exit from those assets.

As part of this trend, the IPE made reference to the special role being played by the so-called “golden triangle” of the Costa del Sol, which comprises the areas of Marbella west, Benahavís south and Estepona east. There, “the price of buildable land is doubling, products that suit the needs of solvent clients are running out and financial competition between landowners is becoming speculative and monopolistic”. Pérez also explained that, given the lack of available land along the west coast, investors are also starting to look for sites to develop along the east coast.

Málaga leads the way

The figures from the Real Estate Pulsimeter (….) confirm (…) that Málaga is one of the most important areas in terms of the recovery of the sector. (…).

House sales grew by 6% (in Málaga) in 2016 to reach a total of almost 26,200; and the IPE forecasts a similar increase for 2017, which would take the figure to around 27,700. Currently, c. 50% of purchases are paid for in cash and the other half are financed through mortgages, which gives us an idea of the importance of foreign buyers and investors here, as they are the main people who can acquire properties without having to resort to financing.

“Malaga’s position of leadership in the real estate sector is also reflected when we draw comparisons between Spain, Andalucía and Málaga with respect to the growth in the number of housing permits granted in 2016 vs. 2015 – the figure grew by 35% in Málaga, and by 20% and 16.9% in Spain and Andalucía, respectively. Something similar happened with the growth in the number of new homes started – Spain, with growth of 33% in 2016 vs 2015, was a long way below the rate of growth in Málaga (54%)”, says the IPE. (…).

Original story: La Opinión de Málaga (by José Vicente Rodríguez)

Translation: Carmel Drake

IPE: House Prices Will Rise By 5% In 2016

18 July 2016 – Expansión

The recovery of the real estate sector began in 2015, and we are now (in 2016) seeing the consolidation of the end of the crisis, with increases in: property prices, the number of transactions, the number of housing permits and rentals, spreading across the whole country.

After seven years of crisis in the sector, the improvement in 2015 might have seemed like a mirage to many, a temporary bounce or a small sign of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the figures for 2016 are showing that the outlook is strong and that the housing market still has great potential, which means that we no longer need to talk about “blossom in the greenhouse” or an incipient recovery, but rather future growth.

The scenario outlined by the Institute of Business Practice (IPE) in its next edition of the Real Estate Pulsometer, shows a very favourable outlook for the sector, in which average transaction prices will grow by 5% and the volume of sales will increase by 13.9% with respect to 2015. All of this will act as a driver for the rest of the sector, which is also being boosted by construction activity. Thus, the number of projects launched will increase by 9.3% and the number of permits for new homes will grow by 13.9%. It seems that the sun is already shining on all of the major indicators in the real estate market.

In addition to this data, we are seeing a gradual and increasingly rapid recovery of the rental market; a strong increase in the yield on homes; and a clear recovery in the non-residential sector, which set record breaking figures in 2015 and is following a positive trend so far in 2016, with fewer operations, but higher prices.

The indicator that best indicates the recovery of the real estate sector is the number of transactions, which grew by 11.1% in 2015 and which is forecast to rise by 13.9% this year. In addition, the increase in sales does not depend only on purchases by those with significant savings…, which was the main driver of the market in years gone by, but in very specific areas.

More mortgages

During 2016, the opening up of the bank loan tap will drive mortgages up by 10.5% (compared with a miniscule increase of 0.6% in 2015), which will allow buyers to return to the market in search of primary residences, even if they only have small amounts of savings. This means that the improvement in the market will extend to other provinces and neighbourhoods that have not featured on the radars of investors in the past.

In addition, this recovery will also affect plots of land, as well as garages, offices and storerooms, to reach 787,839 operations (up by 10.2%) compared with last year. In total, more than half of these transactions are expected to involve homes.

Based on the data to May, the highest increases in house sales are being seen in the Balearic Islands (where purchases grew by 38.6% between January and May, with respect to the same period last year), followed by Murcia (28.9%), País Vasco (24.3%) and Extremadura (21.7%), according to INE. Nevertheless, the Institute of Business Practice forecasts that, during the year, Madrid, Cataluña, Valencia and the Canary Islands will also see some of the most significant increases. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Pablo Cerezal)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Outlook 2016: House Prices Will Rise By 7% & Sales By 17%

28 December 2015 – Expansión

(…). According to the XXII edition of the Real Estate Pulsometer published by the Institute of Business Practice (IPE), the outlook for 2016 is promising. Next year, house prices will rise strongly (by 6.6%), sales will increase by 17.2%, construction of new homes will rise by 12.2%, mortgage lending for urban properties will increase by 16% and stock will decrease by 24.7%.

In addition, the report forecasts a gradual recovery in the rental market, a sharp increase in yields on housing and a full-blown recovery in the non-residential sector, which has broken records in 2015 and on course for a positive 2016, with fewer operations but higher prices.

The most tangible indicator of the real estate recovery will be “the increase in the sales of homes, offices, warehouses, retail premises and land (especially urban)”, says José Antonio Pérez, Director of the Real Estate Department at IPE and the author of the report. (…). We expect to see around 820,000 operations closed in total in Spain in 2016, which represents an increase of 8.1% with respect to  2015 and 23.7% more than in 2014.

Increases across all regions

More than half of the properties sold will be homes. Specifically, next year, 481,500 homes will be sold, i.e. 17.2% more than in 2015 and 50.7% more than in 2014, according to the study, prepared using data from the MAR Real Estate network of estate agents and the Network of Qualified Real Estate Advisors, cross-checked against official figures from INE, the Ministry of Development, the registries and the notaries.

Sales are expected to grow by the most in País Vasco (by 26.8%) in 2016, followed by the Balearic Islands (24.5%), Madrid (23.5%) and Cataluña (22%). Only Castilla-La Mancha is expected to experience a decrease next year: operations will decrease by 2.4% in that region, which has the highest volume of stock per capita in Spain.

In other words, the recovery will continue to take place at two speeds, but the differences (between the speeds) will be less marked, in the sense that, although we will see different speeds, improvements will be seen across almost all of Spain.

In the context of more transactions and increased mortgage lending, house prices will increase significantly. On average, by 6.6%. If we also take into account non-residential assets, property prices will increase by 8.17%, on average.

The market for new builds will also be affected. According to the Pulsometer, cranes will return to our cities, albeit gradually. Specifically, construction permits (which indicate future construction activity) will increase from 58,636 in 2014 to 82,682 in 2016. Up by 41% in two years (in 2015, they already increased by 9% YoY). Moreover, construction will begin on 39,000 residential properties in 2016, up by 12.2% compared with 2015 (34,700). (…).

The changes will also help to reduce the stock of unsold new properties. This surplus amounts to 433,583 homes at the end of 2015. In 2016, a quarter of that supply will be used up, taking it down to 326,295 units. That figure represents less than half the number in 2014 (675,945), according to the IPE’s study.

More mortgages

The real driver behind this consolidation in the residential market is financing. Mortgage lending for urban properties (in other words, not only homes, since the report does not break down non-residential financing) will amount to 426,647 (individual mortgages) in 2015, up by 23% compared with 2014. The figure for 2016 will increase again to 494,890, i.e. 16% more than this year. (…). The average mortgage in 2016 (€122,500) will be higher than since 2011 (€124,862). (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake