Tag: households

Large Investors Manage Only c. 3% of Spain’s Rental Homes

28 May 2018 – Cinco Días

In recent months, a new name has been added to the list of alleged culprits to blame for the fact that rental prices in large cities are rising at a dangerously accelerated pace – they increased by between 10% and 18% last year. They are what the experts call the large owners of rental home portfolios. And are otherwise known as Socimis, investment funds, servicers and, to a much lesser extent, public companies.

But, how many homes are we talking about (…)? And what percentage do they represent over the total stock of rental homes? Taking into account that no official figures are compiled for the number of rental homes in Spain, and that we only talk about percentages of the total number of households (…) the truth is that the task seems complicated.

Nevertheless, according to the calculations performed by Cinco Días and after having requested data from the large funds, the resulting figure is so small, both in absolute and relative terms, that it seems to have almost no or limited influence on the evolution of rental prices. The figures compiled by CBRE reveal a balance that ranges between 2% and 4% of the total stock of rental homes. “It is possible that they have an influence at the local level in areas where more homes managed by those kinds of companies are concentrated, but it is clear that they cannot be blamed for what is happening to rental prices”, explains Sandra Daza, Director General at Gesvalt.

Thus, the statistics compiled by the Government and Eurostat reveal that approximately 22% of Spanish households live in rental properties, a figure that has increased considerably from 15% before the outbreak of the crisis (…).

Multiple factors

In this way, if we take as the reference the most recent figure for the number of households during the first quarter of this year, according to the Active Population Survey (EPA), of the 18.55 million households in Spain, 4.07 million were rental homes.

Of that volume of household-homes, a total of 114,000 homes are in the hands of the 15 largest investors, which together account for just 2.8% of the total stock of rental homes (…).

As Samuel Población, the National Director of Residential and Land at CBRE, explains, the increase in this regime of tenure over buying is driven by several factors. The new labour market, with more instability and lower salaries, is forcing many households to rent, plus all the demand that was expelled from purchasing during the crisis (…).

This increase in demand has not been accompanied by a parallel rise in the supply to the same extent and that is what is causing most of the tension in terms of rental prices, together with the effect of tourist apartments in certain neighbourhoods of large cities and higher visitor numbers. Not even the fact that one out of every five homes purchased is destined for rent to make the investment profitable has managed to generate more homes for rent.

“The current rise is a consequence of the large gap between demand and supply”, says Wolfgang Beck, CEO of the Socimi Testa Residencial, one of the largest owners of this kind of asset (…).

“It does not make sense to attribute the rise in rental prices to the funds. They have a long-term focus and are actually responsible for increasing the stock of rental homes on the market”, says Javier Rodríguez Heredia, Head of the Residential team at the housing manager Azora.

“Establishing regulations that provide certainty for institutional investors to make it attractive for them to enter the sector would result in the creation of a rental home stock commensurate with the needs of the country”, he said (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro & Alfonso Simón)

Translation: Carmel Drake

INE: Lack of Rental Homes Boosts House Purchases in Canary Islands

12 May 2018 – Canarias 7

During the first quarter of the year, 6,373 homes were sold in the Canary Islands, up by 20% compared to the same period a year earlier, and 8 percentage points higher than the national average. Every day between January and March, 70 homes were sold, 12 more per day than in 2017. Moreover, operations involving new build homes grew by more than those involving second-hand homes for the first time.

The lack of rental homes in the Canary Islands is boosting the volume of house sales in the archipelago above the national average. And that is because buying a flat is the only way of securing a home in certain areas of the archipelago, according to warnings from real estate experts.

Data published on Friday by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) confirm the trend in the Canary Islands’ real estate market. During the first quarter of the year, 6,373 homes were sold on the islands, which represented an increase of 20% with respect to the previous year. Every day between January and March, 70 homes were sold, 12 more per day than in 2017.

During Q1 2018, 1,001 more operations were closed in the Canary Islands than during the same quarter last year, according to the Statistics for the Transmission of Property Rights published by INE. At the national level, the increase was half that figure, 12%: between January and March, 128,348 homes were sold in Spain compared to 114,965 a year earlier.

In terms of the type of homes sold in the Canary Islands, for the first time since the outbreak of the crisis, the number of new home sales grew by more than the number of second-hand home sales. Operations involving new builds are fewer in absolute terms but they are growing more rapidly. Between January and March, 1,333 new homes were sold in the Canary Islands, up by 22% compared to the same period in 2017.

Meanwhile, 5,040 second-hand homes were sold, up by 17.8% compared to a year before, according to data from INE.

Price rises

House prices are going to rise by 5% on average this year, i.e. by almost twice the rate they grew by in 2017, according to forecasts from BBVA Research reflected in its magazine, the Real Estate Situation in Spain.

Similarly, the bank’s research department predicts that the volume of operations will reach 570,000 this year, up by 7% compared to 2017. In terms of new home permits, the forecast is that 93,000 will be signed by the end of the year, up by 15% compared to 2017.

In general, the potential demand for housing is expected to grow by between 1 and 1.4 million over the next 10 years, which translates into an annual average of between 95,000 and 135,000 households.

Original story: Canarias 7 (by Silvia Fernández)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Bank of Spain: Real Estate Loans Account for 40% of All New Lending

3 May 2018 – El Confidencial

The Spanish economy is returning to its roots. New real estate loans granted to households, in other words, lending that does not include the renegotiation of existing loans, is now growing at an annual rate of 17.4%. In total, such lending amounted to €36.5 billion in 2017.

And this is not a one-off blip. So far this year, although the rate of growth has softened, it still rose by 11.1% during the first quarter compared to the same period last year. That explains how real estate loans now account for 37.4% of all lending that households requested in 2017, which amounted to €97.5 billion in total.

Those €36.5 billion that were used to buy properties exceeded the amount spent on the purchase of consumer goods (€29.1 billion) and the amount that was financed through credit cards (€13.3 billion), whose growth was very significant.

Paradoxically, the most expensive financing – financial institutions apply significantly higher interest rates when consumer acquire goods using credit cards – grew by 20.3%. Therefore, by five times more than the increase in nominal GDP (with inflation).

Data from the Bank of Spain leaves no doubt about the recovery in real estate lending boosted by low interest rates, which explains that the number of renegotiations is still very active, although it has decreased with respect to two years ago, when many households changed the conditions of their loans to benefit from the European Central Bank (ECB)’s ultra-expansive monetary policy.

Specifically, between 2015 and 2017, Spanish households renegotiated loans amounting to almost €18.0 billion, which allowed them to benefit from the extraordinary monetary conditions. In fact, 1-year Euribor remains at -0.1890%, which has encouraged increasingly more households to opt for fixed-rate mortgages over variable rate products.

The average interest rate on new operations for the acquisition of homes amounted to 2.21% in February, which represented a slight increase of 16 hundredths with respect to the previous month. In any case, these are tremendously favourable real interest rates (with respect to inflation), which boost property sales.

Property bubble

The credit map reflecting the Bank of Spain’s statistics reveals two very different realities. On the one hand, as described, new real estate lending has soared, but on the other hand, the amount granted before 2008, which is when the real estate bubble burst, is continuing to fall very significantly. In other words, families are continuing to repay their loans and, therefore, reduce their indebtedness, but, at the same time, new operations are growing strongly.

A couple of pieces of data reflect this clearly. In 2011, the outstanding loan balance dedicated to real estate activities amounted to €298.8 billion, but by the fourth quarter of 2017, that quantity had decreased to €110.0 billion (…).

The importance of the real estate sector in the Spanish economy is key. And, in fact, the double recession was very closely linked to demand for housing, which fell by no less than 60% between 2007 and 2013. In particular, due to the drag effect on the other components of private consumption (…).

The data on real estate lending are logically consistent with those offered by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE) on the constitution of mortgages, which reflect an increase of 13.8% in February (the most recent month for which data is available) compared to a year earlier. In total, 27,945 mortgages, with an average loan value of €119,708, were granted (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by Carlos Sánchez)

Translation: Carmel Drake

BBVA Research: Madrid & Balearics Led Spain’s House Price Rises in 2017

6 March 2018 – Expansión

House sales data for 2017 and the ongoing increases in house prices augur a year of consolidation for the real estate market in 2018, according to BBVA Research, which published its Real Estate Observatory report yesterday.

Nevertheless, this trend is happening with geographical variations. Madrid and the Balearic Islands are leading the price rises, with increases of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively, to €2,355/m2 in the case of Madrid and €2,205/m2 in the case of the Balearic market. Those increases amounted to more than double the national average, of 3.1%, with the average price per square metre rising to €1,559/m2.

In 2017, Spain surpassed the symbolic barrier of 500,000 homes sold. Specifically, the year ended with 532,726 operations, according to data from the National Council of Notaries. That increase, of 15.6%, is even greater than the growth recorded in 2016 (14%) and is supported by: the confidence of households in the Spanish economy; the increase in rents thanks to the growth in employment; and the improvement in financing conditions.

The improvement in financing conditions is reflected in data for January when new loans for the acquisition of homes soared by 19.4%. “Thus, the market is expected to continue to perform positively over the next few months”, said the Research Department at BBVA.

But the market is still evolving at different speeds, depending on the autonomous region. In fact, only four regions have prices per square metre that exceed the national average. Besides Madrid and the Balearic Islands,  they are País Vasco, which has the most expensive average house price per square metre in Spain, exceeding even Madrid (€2,387/m2, up by 1.3%) and Cataluña (€1,892/m2), which occupies fourth place, after recording the third highest rise.

The increase in Cataluña was higher than the average, but “it was less intense than in the third quarter of 2017”, said BBVA Research. That circumstance coincides with the secessionist crisis, which has also led to a paralysis in terms of investment and a decrease in the number of tourist visits.

On the other hand, houses got cheaper during the last quarter of 2017 in La Rioja (-1.8%), Castilla y León (-1%), Castilla-La Mancha (-0.8%), Galicia (-0.4%) and Aragón (-0.1%). In some of those autonomous regions, the lowering of house prices may be influenced by the phenomenon of depopulation and the rising demand in large capitals and coastal areas.

Following an 11.6% decrease in the number of permits approved in November, the granting of permits to start new homes performed positively in December, with an increase of 5%, to 6,096 permits.

This increase favours the evolution of the real estate market in a scenario in which the large cities are facing demand that exceeds supply and there is a limitation on land development. In 2017, the number of new home permits amounted to 80,786, which represented an increase of 26.2% compared to 2016.

Original story: Expansión (by I. Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Residential Rental Sector Continues to Thrive

6 January 2018 – Cinco Días

The current rental market in Spain has nothing or very little to do with the one that existed in the noughties (2000-2009), when being a tenant was almost equivalent to being a second-class citizen, as Gustavo Rossi, President of Alquiler Seguro, recalls. A study compiled by Idealista maintains that whilst in 2000, homes offered for rent represented just 9% of the market, by the end of 2017, Madrid was the third-placed city in the ranking of places with the most rental homes in Europe, whilst Barcelona was ranked sixth.

That increase in supply has been driven by an exponential growth in demand for rental homes and by the boom in tourist rentals. During the first few years of the crisis, demand switched to the rental market, above all due to necessity. Faced with the impossibility of buying a home due to the high prices or the closure of the credit tap by the banks, or even both factors, families had to resort to renting as their plan B.

Nevertheless, and as the economic and employment recovery has been gaining momentum, although the majority of those who rent still aspire to become homeowners, increasingly more households are opting to lease regardless of their economic capacity or solvency level. They are the new tenants by conviction. “The impact that the no-credit-generation (those who are not willing to get into debt and who prefer to pay to use a home) is having on the market is considerable”, explains Rossi.

One way or another, the percentage of households that rent their homes has gone from just 11% in 2001 to almost double that figure, more than 20% in 2017, according to figures from the sector. That progression is even more marked in the large cities since it is estimated that in Madrid and Barcelona, more than 30% of families rent their homes, which brings Spain closer to the European parameters, where the average number of rental homes exceeds that 30% threshold (…).

Sources at Fotocasa are convinced that this year (2018) there will be a lot of talk about the rental market once again. “The high returns that investors are seeking, the boom in tourist apartments and the change in mentality (towards renting) are going to continue putting upward pressure on rental prices, above all in the large cities”, says the firm’s Head of Research, Beatriz Toribio. In this sense, the table published by the Bank of Spain comparing yields on rental homes with those on the stock market (Ibex 35) and fixed income securities leaves little room for doubt. The latest data reveals a gross profit from rental properties of 4.2% p.a., which soars to 10.9% if we add the gain that can be obtained when a property is sold (capital appreciation) (…).

The experts offer two pieces of advice. Before choosing between traditional rental and tourist lets, investors should analyse all of the variables because it is not always more attractive for a property to be let for very short stays (refer to the comparative graph). And the Administrations are demanding that investors bet more on the rental segment, in the form of direct subsidies and tax reliefs, to encourage owners to put empty homes onto the market and that will allow them to reach maturity. “The rental market is here to stay”, says Eduard Mendiluce, CEO at Anticipa Real Estate.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)

Translation: Carmel Drake

BBVA: Housing Market Makes A Strong Start To 2017

10 May 2017 – Europa Press

BBVA’s latest report highlights the “positive” evolution of the real estate market at the beginning of 2017, given that house purchases are still being “backed” by mortgage financing, construction is continuing to grow and house sales are maintaining their upwards trend.

At least that is according to the “Real Estate Observatory of Spain”, compiled by BBVA Research, the financial entity’s research service and BBVA’s Real Estate area, which states that the recent review of the macroeconomic scenario by BBVA, which forecasts GDP growth of 3% this year, introduces “an upwards bias into the forecasts for 2017”.

In this sense, the entity highlights that house sales maintained their growth rate, supported by the “strong performance” in terms of employment and mortgage loans, whilst construction activity also “remained dynamic”.

According to data from the General Council of Notaries, during the first two months of 2017, 72,371 homes were sold, up by 13.9% compared to a year ago, but in line with the average for 2016 as a whole.

Amongst the factors that BBVA points to as reasons for the improvement in the real estate sector, are the labour market in Spain, which “has continued to improve”, as reflected by Social Security sign-on data, such as the Active Population Survey (EPA). According to the EPA, the number of people in employment grew by 0.6% during the first quarter of the year.

In addition, credit conditions remain “favourable” for households. Interest rates are at minimum levels: the mortgage rate for new operations remains at around 2.2%; meanwhile, the 12-month Euribor rate hit a new minimum in April, closing at -0.119%.

The mortgage market supports residential demand

Moreover, the mortgage market is continuing to drive residential demand. New loans to buy a home rose by 23.5% YoY during the first quarter, excluding refinancings, according to data from the Bank of Spain.

In turn, during the first two months of 2017, almost 12,800 housing permits were granted (20.3% YoY).

Finally, BBVA highlights that the dynamics in the market for land “are still positive”, given that during the first two months of the year, the number of transactions involving land rose by 12.8% YoY, which represents an increase in the traded surface area of 8.8% in one year.

Original story: Europa Press 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Solvia: Spain Is Still A Country Of Homeowners

3 May 2017 – Solvia Magazine

Despite the growing demand for rental housing, Spain’s National Institute of Statistics reports that the majority of Spanish households live in properties that they own.

The latest data relating to the type of households in Spain, published by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), are revealing: despite the growing increase in demand for rental housing, above all in the large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, the majority of Spain’s households, specifically 77.5%, live in properties that they own (based on data for 2016). And of that proportion, 48.7% did so in homes without any mortgage payments pending.

The study also highlights that the house ownership trend varies by nationality. Whilst 59.4% of households with at least one foreign member live in rental properties, only 11.8% of families comprising all Spaniards opted for that arrangement in 2016.

On the other hand, the average size of the 18,406,100 households censored in Spain in 2016 amounted to 2.50 people and the most frequently occurring household type was that occupied by a couple with children, which accounted for 33.8% of the total.

Nevertheless, the study warns that increasingly more people are living by themselves in Spain. In 2016, that figure amounted to 4,638,300 people, which represents 25.2% of the total number households. The reasons for this trend are the gradual ageing of the population, which leads to many older people living alone in their homes. The trend is also boosted by homes inhabited by so-called “singles”.

Original story: Solvia Magazine

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Rental Market Is Thriving, Boosted By Buy-To-Let

9 January 2016 – Expansión

Thanks to strong investor appetite / The high profitability of residential investments has increased expectations in the rental market, given that it is the option now chosen by 21% of Spaniards. Experts forecast rental price rises of more than 5%.

The rental market closed 2016 with price rises of 6.7%, but in many large cities, the increases were in the double digits. The difficulties facing young people when it comes to affording a home, the emergence onto the market of hundreds of thousands of homes that were empty and the high returns of real estate investments have increased expectations for this residential option, once forgotten in Spain and which is now the alternative chosen by 21% of Spaniards.

This year, “given that interest rates are not expected to rise in Europe over the medium term, housing will remain attractive as an investment asset”, said Jorge Ripoll, Director of Research at Tinsa. “Speculative demand will push more and more savers towards the sector”, predicts Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain at BBVA Research.

In this context, the consensus of the panel of real estate experts consulted by Expansión is that the rental boom will not only continue during 2017, but that the rises may even be larger, especially in the large cities. Julián Cabanillas, CEO at Servihabitat, highlighted that his forecasts indicate an average YoY growth in rental prices “of more than 10%”.

The increase in prices will be “particularly noteworthy in the large cities, whose weight over the national average is also more significant”, added Cabanillas, who warned that: “If prices continue to rise in the double digits, many households will be priced out of the market, particularly those formed by young people”.

The President of Tecnitasa

José María Basañez points out that “during the last few months of 2016, the rental market in Spain was more robust than the market for house sales”, a trend that will continue into 2017, in his opinion. “Therefore, we may well see price rises of more than 5%, on average”. (…).

Other analysts, such as Julio Gil, Chairman of the Foundation of Real Estate Studies, and José García Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the Pompeu Fabra University, think that the rental price rises will be more moderate. Nevertheless, like in the case of house prices, “there will be areas where rental prices will grow more quickly (such as in Madrid, Barcelona, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands)”, said Montalvo.

“The rental market is here to stay in Spain. We are seeing a change in mentality, with more and more people convinced that it is the way forward”, says Beatriz Toribio, Director of Research at Fotocasa.

House prices are also rising

Finally, it is worth noting that two new phenomena are being seen in the rental market. On the one hand, rental prices are rising and the volume of house sales are increasing, as Jaime Cabrero, President of the Real Estate Agents’ Association in Madrid, explains. On the other hand, the rise in rentals is making house purchases more expensive, according to Juan Fernández Aceytuno, Director General at Sociedad de Tasación: “The rental market is causing house prices to rise because there are increasingly more investors who are buying properties to rent”. “The high returns offered on buy to let properties are behind the tensions in terms of prices that we have been seeing and will continue to see in 2017”, adds Toribio.

Original story: Expansión (by Juanma Lamet)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Banks Recover But Its Toxic Assets Remain

9 January 2017 – Tribune

Hit by a severe crisis several years ago, Spain’s banking sector has recovered but at a cost as thousands are laid off and it struggles to get rid of toxic assets.

“The system is closer to putting most of the crisis legacies behind it,” said analysts at the International Monetary Fund in charge of Spain in a recent report. Still, the ghosts of a crisis that saw the European Union bail out the sector have recently been revived as Italy suffers a similar predicament, with the State having to rescue Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank.

The EU lent €41 billion ($43 billion) to rescue the Spanish banking sector in the spring of 2012, compared to some €50 billion in Greece, as an example.

At the time, Spain was waist-deep in a financial crisis caused when a property bubble burst in 2008, after years of euphoria that saw loans granted almost blindly to households incapable of reimbursing them.

Since then, though, the share of problem loans on the balance sheets of Spain’s banks has dropped considerably.

In the second quarter of 2016, it stood at an average of 6%, according to the European Banking Authority (EBA) regulatory agency. This is slightly above the European median of 5.4%, but well below that of Italy, Portugal or Greece, which stand at 16.4%, 20% and 47% respectively.

Spain’s central bank, which is even stricter in its calculations of the share of bad loans, said in November that it stood at an average of 9.2%, against a high of 13.6% at the end of 2013. The Moody’s ratings agency predicts this should continue to drop thanks to “favourable macroeconomic conditions” such as expected growth of 3.2% in 2016, double the eurozone average.

Banks are also much stricter in granting loans now.

But on a darker note, they are struggling to sell the huge amount of property seized during the crisis from households that could not pay, as buyers remain scarce.

“Despite the mild recovery in the housing market observed in 2015, banks’ real estate repossessions continue to exceed the volume of properties that banks are managing to sell,” said Moody’s in a note.

Original story: Tribune

Edited by: Carmel Drake

Ministry Of Dev’t: New Home Permits Soared By 17% In 2016

4 January 2017 – Expansión

Moreover, loans to build new homes have grown by 37%, despite the tightening of controls by the banks.

A decade later, the cranes are back on the skyline of Spain’s major cities once again. The economic improvement and return of credit to the property sector boosted the construction of new homes by 17% in 2016, according to the construction permit statistics published by the Ministry of Development.

The growth was driven by a 37% increase in the financing granted to construction companies and property developers, which received €1,025 million between January and October, according to the General College of Notaries. The banks have now digested the majority of the toxic assets left over from the bubble and are opening the credit tap to the construction sector once again, albeit including more restrictions and controls to avoid repeating the errors of the past.

On the one hand, in most cases, financial institutions are demanding that 80% of developments are pre-sold before the construction of any new buildings can begin. Moreover, the banks are requiring project monitoring to audit the execution of the work and, in the same sense, a more detailed control of the clients that choose to buy properties.

With the money loaned by the banks, property developers and cooperatives have started to design buildings aimed at capturing the demand for new homes that exists in the market. “Clients believe that the worst of the crisis is over and that prices are not going to decrease any further. Moreover, financing conditions for buyers are unique given the low level of Euribor”, explains Daniel Cuevo, Chairman of the Association of Property Developers in Madrid (Asprima).

But the doors to the new real estate market have not been opened to everyone. Most of the new homes sold are “reposition” properties, in other words, they are properties that replace homes that have become too old or too small for their occupants. Young people are finding it the hardest to form their own homes, due to the high rate of youth unemployment, the level of wages and the instability in the market. (…).

In total, during the first ten months of 2016, 16,043 permits were requested to build new homes. The sector expects to reach the 20,000 permit threshold by the end of the year, a figure that exceeds the number of permits requested in 2015 by 17%, but which is still well below the 113,000 permits requested in 2006, a record year, at the height of the real estate bubble. (…).

On the other hand, the new homes that are being built post-crisis are not the same as those that were built during the boom years. Now, property developers are designing buildings with three-bedroom homes that cost the same as a two-bedroom home back in 2006. Urbanisations, which become so fashionable at the beginning of the century, are also back in demand. “People want homes with padel courts and a swimming pool, plus they now also want specific spaces to celebrate parties for children and adults”, explains the President of Asprima. In total, the Ministry of Development granted 1,175 permits to build urbanisations in Spain during the ten months to October 2016.

The increase in property construction has been accompanied by more transactions involving land. The number of land purchases by companies recorded an average growth rate of 23% during the nine months to September 2016, across the country as a whole. In certain regions, such as Madrid, the increase during the first three quarters of the year amounted to 135%. (…).

The improvement in new build construction work also extended to renovations. Thousands of households took advantage of the economic recovery to undertake home improvements and even to extend their properties. Thus, during the first 10 months of 2016, 21,801 requests were filed to renovate or restore homes, up by 2.1% compared to a year earlier. Meanwhile, demand for permits to extend homes soared by 39%, to 1,634. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Victor Martínez)

Translation: Carmel Drake