Tag: house prices

Ministry of Development: 100,733 New Build Permits were Granted in 2018

28 February 2019 – Idealista

In 2018, 100,722 building permits were granted to construct new homes, 25% more than a year earlier; a figure not seen since 2009, when 110,849 permits were granted, according to data from the Ministry of Development. Of the total figure, 79,453 were granted to build blocks of flats and 21,254 to build houses.

In this way, building permits have now recorded five consecutive years of increases. In 2013, they hit a historical low (34,288 units), a figure that represented a decline of 96% from the peak year of 2006 when 865,561 permits were granted.

Despite the good results in 2018, the construction sector considers that a healthy market is one that is capable of generating around 150,000 new work permits per year.

Why is it so hard to build 150,000 homes per year?

Daniel Cuervo, Director at Asprima, points to several factors:

– Building permits take a long time to be granted (…). In general, Town Halls take 14 months to grant a licence, on average (…).

– Financing has returned to the real estate sector, but it is not immediate (…).

– Urban planning in Spain is paralysed due to the high level of legal uncertainty (…).

Meanwhile, Daniel del Pozo, Director at Idealista/News, provides some additional explanations:

– Lack of awareness about how the market works and of the real demand by the Public Administration (…).

– The main land portfolios are owned by the banks, Sareb and the funds (…) which are all waiting for prices to rise before releasing the most sought-after plots.

– The political uncertainty, the threats of interventionalism and/or changes in regulation in the real estate market also play their role (…).

Original story: Idealista 

Translation: Carmel Drake

INE: Mortgage Lending Rose by 16.5% YoY to €42.7bn in 2018

27 February 2019 – La Vanguardia

Last year, 345,186 mortgages to purchase homes were signed in Spain, up by 10.3% compared to 2017, but the banks again refrained from fully opening the financing tap: the average loan amount increased by just 5.6% to €123,727, according to data presented on Wednesday by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (INE).

The growth in the average amount is only slightly higher than the increase in house prices (which rose by 3.9% on average last year, according to data from the Ministry of Development, albeit by much more in the large cities and their metropolitan areas, where the bulk of demand is concentrated). “The banks are adopting a conservative strategy, that’s for sure”, said Oscar Gorgues, Manager of the Chamber of Urban Property in Barcelona – “because they are still very mindful of the excesses of the boom years. For that reason too, we can say that the real estate market is healthy and there is no risk of a bubble”.

The data from INE shows that after five years of recovery in the real estate sector, the number of mortgages granted is still 71% lower than the 1.24 million mortgages granted by the banks in 2007, the last year before the burst of the real estate bubble.

According to real estate firms, the caution on the part of the banks means that the main factor causing families, and especially young people, to rent, is the fact that it is impossible for them to obtain a mortgage loan. By contrast, according to the real estate firm Forcadell, around one third of homes are now purchased without a mortgage, in operations undertaken by investors (…).

According to data from INE, the value of all of the new mortgages constituted to purchase homes last year amounted to €42.7 billion, up by 16.5% compared to 2017, due to the combined effect of increases in the number of operations and the average loan amount (…).

Original story: La Vanguardia (by Rosa Salvador)

Translation: Carmel Drake

PSOE & Podemos to Save the Rental Reform without Price Limits

27 February 2019 – Cinco Días

Despite the initial disagreements and failures, all indications are that the Government and Podemos are going to end up rescuing the Rental Act. The Executive is expected to present new text to the Council of Ministers on Friday, which will not include limitations on rental prices, but which will reflect significant changes with respect to the text that was toppled a month ago. Those changes include: the compilation of an official price index in large cities; updates to rents subject to CPI; and greater guarantees against evictions, according to reports from El País yesterday.

The draft being finalised by the Executive does not include any measures regarding limits on rental price increases, but it does propose compiling some official price indices to serve as a tool for autonomous regions to establish their own housing policies, since they have the authority in this regard.

Podemos, a key partner to enable the validation of the Act regards this measure as insufficient but sources in the party acknowledge that they would have to concede to save the other improvements proposed by the text and reverse the harmful measures introduced by the PP in 2013. One option being considered is an 80% discount on the IBI charge for those owners who comply with the price index (…).

Another feature of the new text is that the update to rental prices during the term of a contract may only be subject to CPI, something that used to be included in the Urban Rental Act until the PP eliminated it in 2013.

The Act also recovers the increase in the duration of contracts from three to five years, or seven in those cases where the owner is a company, but also adds that all contracts will be valid, regardless of whether they are registered in the Property Registry (…). Another initiative included in the draft text, to provide greater security to tenants, are the notice periods for the non-renewal of contracts, which increase from one to four months in the case of owners and from one to two months for tenants.

The new regulation will also include enhanced guarantees against evictions (…).

Original story: Cinco Días (by E.C.)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Fotocasa: Residential Rental Yields Fell to 5.4% in January

26 January 2019 – El Economista

Residential yields in Spain fell by 7% in January 2019 with respect to the same month a year earlier to reach 5.4%, according to a report from Fotocasa.

The data obtained from the prices of house sales and rentals during the month of January show that acquiring a property to put it up for rent was “a bit more profitable” in 2018 than in 2019, according to Fotocasa.

The Head of Research at the real estate portal, Beatriz Toribio, explained that “this slight decrease in yields stands out because it is the first recorded in the month of January for the last 10 years. It is explained by the lower rate of growth in rental prices that we have seen since the end of 2018%”.

The report shows that Cataluña was the most profitable autonomous region, with a yield of 5.8%, compared to 6.7% in January 2018, which represents a decrease of 13% in that region.

In second place, the Community of Valencia had an average yield of 5.7%, compared with 5.9% in January 2018. Fotocasa highlighted that in just one year, the Community of Valencia went from being the 4th most profitable region to the 2nd.

It was followed by Murcia with a yield of 5.6%, compared to 5.7% a year earlier and Madrid (5.5% compared to 5.9% in 2018) (…).

The autonomous regions with the lowest yields were Galicia and La Rioja, with returns of 4.2% each; Navarra (4.4%) and Castilla y León (4.5%).

On the other hand, the most profitable city in the country was Hospitalet de Llobregat, which took the top position for the ninth year in a row, with a yield of 6.3%, the same percentage it obtained in 2018.

Original story: El Economista 

Translation: Carmel Drake

S&P: House Prices will Rise in Spain by More than in Other Major Eurozone Economies

24 February 2019 – La Vanguardia

House prices in Spain are going to continue rising for at least the next three years, although the rate of growth will slow down as the economy loses momentum and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s monetary policy normalises, according to forecasts from the agency S&P Global Ratings, which points to larger rises in the Spanish real estate market than in the other major Eurozone economies.

According to the ratings agency, house prices in Spain, which registered an estimated nominal rise of 6.6% in 2018, will increase by 4.5% this year, by 3.4% next year and by 3% a year later, although S&P warns that if prices continue to grow by more than the expected incomes of households, then access to housing will continue to worsen over the coming years.

In this sense, as a result of the deep fall in real estate prices in Spain during the crisis, access to housing is still at better levels now than it was before the burst of the real estate bubble, with a ratio of prices with respect to income that is 29% lower than the maximums observed in 2007, albeit 25% higher than the long-term average.

Similarly, S&P considers that the low interest rates applied to mortgage loans for the acquisition of homes will continue to serve to support access to housing in Spain, indicating that, given the rise in inflation between May and October 2018, real rates became negative.

In addition to Spain, the agency forecasts that real estate price will continue to rise across the Eurozone, although at a lower rate than in previous years, with the exception of Italy, where an increase of 0.5% is expected this year, which will accelerate to 1.3% in 2020 and to 1.6% in 2021.

In the case of Germany, prices will rise by 3.9% in 2019, although those increases will moderate to 3.3% and 3% in the subsequent two years, respectively, whilst in France, house prices are predicted to rise by 2.4% this year and by 2% in the following two years (…).

Original story: La Vanguardia 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Ministry of Development: Ibiza was Spain’s 2nd Most Expensive City for Buying a Home in 2018

22 February 2019 – Eje Prime

Change is afoot in the ranking of Spain’s most expensive cities for housing, and Ibiza is rising fast. In 2018, the Balearic city was ranked as the second most expensive place in Spain to buy a home, with an average value per square metre of €3,537.40. In this way, in just one year, Ibiza has surpassed Barcelona, Sant Cugat del Vallès and Santa Eulalia del Río to be ranked in second position, just behind San Sebastián.

According to data from the Ministry of Development published yesterday, house prices in Ibiza rose by 20.4% in 2018, compared with an increase of 4.5% in the case of San Sebastián. Meanwhile, prices per square metre in Barcelona rose by 10.1% in 2018; by 8.8% in Sant Cugat; and by 7.3% in Santa Eulalia del Rio.

Madrid retained its position as the sixth most expensive city for buying a home in 2018 with a price per square metre of €3,103.80 and a YoY increase of 8.5%. It was followed by Pozuelo de Alarcón, which exceeded Majadahonda, Getxo and Calvià in 2018 with a price rise of 20.4%, the same as in Ibiza.

Only three municipalities of the twenty most expensive in Spain saw their prices decrease in 2018 (Getxo, Calvià and Leioa) with reductions of 1%, 4.6% and 0.1%, respectively. On the other hand, Avilés, Narón and Alcantarilla were the municipalities with more than 25,000 inhabitants where house prices decreased by the most in 2018, with drops of 11.6%, 8.9% and 8%, respectively.

Moreover, besides Ibiza, the Madrilenian municipality of Torrejón de Ardoz saw its prices rise by the most in 2018, also up by 20.4%. It was followed by rises of 19.8% in Ciutadella de Menorca, 19.6% in Esplugues de Llobregat and 18.9% in Leganés.

House prices in many other places also rose by a lot more than the national average, of 3.9%, including in Móstoles (18.5%), Cornellà de Lloregat and Palencia, with rises of 18.2%, and Martorell (17.4%).

Original story: Eje Prime (by C. de Angelis)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Savills: House Sales will Exceed 500,000 Again in 2019

19 February 2019 – Voz Pópuli

For the first time since 2008, more than half a million homes were sold in Spain last year, and the good performance is expected to be replicated in 2019 with forecasts that between 500,000 and 600,000 homes will be sold.

The deceleration of the Spanish economy – which will move from growing at a rate of 2.5% in 2018 to around 2% this year – is not expected to prevent the residential sector from consolidating its growth, although the maximum levels recorded in 2007, when 775,300 operations were signed in the country, is not going to be repeated.

“We do not think that we will return to those figures. Staying at the sales levels seen over the last two years, of close to 550,000 units sold, will be an excellent result”, explained Arturo Díaz, Executive Director of the residential market at the consultancy firm Savills Aguirre Newman, speaking to Voz Pópuli.

He considers that this rate of growth is reasonable if we take into account the rate of household creation in the country, the levels of purchases for investment and the purchases for holiday homes (…).

The real estate consultancy CBRE agrees with this outlook (…). In fact, the firm is more ambitious with its forecasts as it expects 625,000 house sale operations to be closed in 2019, due to an increase in demand (…).

The growth profile

The main real estate consultancy firms all agree that there will be an increase in new build sales in 2019, in parallel to a slight decrease in the sales of second-hand homes, and so the gap between the two will begin to close.

Moreover, they confirmed that a change has taken place in terms of the profile of house buyers in Spain, with large international investors playing an increasingly greater role.

“Whilst a decade ago, demand for residential assets was dominated by domestic private families (individuals), nowadays, the market is characterised by investment vehicles, institutional funds and insurance companies – owned by foreign capital in many cases – the most active players in this segment”, said Lola Martínez Brioso, Head of Research at CBRE.

House prices in Spain rose by 8.2% in 2018, according to the Real Estate Statistics Registry from the College of Registrars, which means that they are still well below the peaks reached during the construction boom. In 2019, the sector expects the price rises to moderate (to around 4-5%) (…).

Although the price rises will be more moderate overall, there will be important differences by area (…). By region, the experts forecast that the large cities and their metropolitan areas will continue to lead the charge in terms of house price rises, specifically, Barcelona, Madrid, Málaga and the major municipalities in those areas.

Díaz also adds that “other large cities such as Valencia and Sevilla are starting to show a high level of activity”, along with certain holiday markets, “such as the Costa del Sol, Costa Blanca and Costa de la Luz, where the recovery in domestic demand, together with the appeal that those regions have for international buyers, is generating a high volume of purchasing activity”.

Original story: Voz Pópuli (by Alejandra Olcese)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Blackstone will be the Landlord of 25,000 Rental Homes by the End of 2019

31 January 2019 – Voz Pópuli

Blackstone, one of the largest investment companies in the world, expects to end the year with 25,000 rental homes under management in Spain.

Eduard Mendiluce (pictured above, left), the man from Blackstone who leads the US giant’s real estate emporium in Spain, has explained that the firm believes in the Spanish market, as it has done since 2014, and will end 2019 managing 10,000 more rental homes that it currently owns (15,000).

“We continue to believe in the fundamentals of the residential sector in Spain”, said Mendiluce at a conference about the real estate sector organised by Iese in Madrid. “Spain was one of the countries that suffered the most during the real estate crisis of 2008; prices are still 30% below their maximums”, he said.

The CEO of Aliseda and Anticipa explained that the US fund’s strategy in Spain in terms of real estate involves renting or buying and selling second-hand homes worth between €120,000 and €150,000. “When you have more than 200 homes under management in a given municipality, the business becomes profitable”, he explained.

Blackstone has invested almost €26 billion in the Spanish market over the last five years. In March 2014, it purchased 40,000 problem mortgages from Catalunya Caixa for €3.6 billion.

Since then, it has purchased: Banco Popular’s toxic property, together with Santander, for more than €5 billion; the Socimi Hispania for €2 billion; and 50.01% of the rental home Socimi Testa for €947 million. Last year, it bought Cirsa, a leading company in the gaming industry in Europe in a deal worth €2 billion.

In terms of the criticisms directed at the rental policies of Blackstone and other funds from certain sectors, Mendiluce has highlighted that in Spain, the funds own just 3% of the total rental housing stock, and that the rest is in the hands of individuals.

“I think that it is difficult to manipulate prices when you only account for a small percentage (of the market)”, he said. “I firmly believe that if there has been very concentrated price inflation in a handful of towns, then that has been due to a lack of supply”, and he pointed out that Spain has the lowest percentage of social housing in Europe.

Fashionable market

Juan José Brugera, President of the real estate company Colonial, was very optimistic about the real estate sector in Spain.

“We are in an expansive phase of the cycle, we are facing lower growth, but growth is growth, and it’s strong in Spain”, he said at the conference organised by Iese. “In the rental cycle, we are still in the growth phase, we have potential for rental growth that we believe ensures a strong performance over the next two or three years” he said.

“The Spanish market is fashionable at the moment, we predict expansive behaviour”, he said. “I have a positive vision, the stock market is behaving a bit strangely, but I think that is due to certain turbulences, both external and internal, that are generating uncertainty”.

Original story: Voz Pópuli (by Alberto Ortín)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Fotocasa: Second-Hand House Prices Record Their Highest Increase Since 2006

24 January 2019 – Expansión

Second-hand housing is continuing to spearhead growth in the residential market. Not only because it accounts for more than 80% of all house sale operations, but also because it is the segment where prices are increasing by the most.

The price of second-hand homes rose by 7.8% at the end of 2018, recording the highest increase in 13 years, since 2006, before the crisis, according to data published yesterday by Fotocasa. Taking into account the fact that the online portfolio started monitoring house prices in 2006, it is the largest annual increase in the historical series. Although the prices of second-hand homes have not stopped growing in month-on-month terms for 27 months – more than two years – in 2018, they rose at a rate never before seen.

The awakening of latent demand, investor appetite and the profitability of rental properties in the context of low interest rates explain why interest has returned to property purchases, with the consequent impact on prices”, explained Beatriz Toribio, Head of Research at Fotocasa.

Despite the increases, the average house price stands at €1,869/m2, the level last seen in 2013, when the residential sector had not yet started to recover. House prices peaked in April 2007, when the price per square metre reached €2,952/m2, 36.7% higher than it is now (…).

Even though prices are still well below their historic maximums, the evolution of the market varies by area. Although the increases were widespread across almost the whole country in 2018, Toribio explains that “the intensity of the increases is very different, and there are even areas where slight decreases were registered”. Madrid is the province where prices increased by the most, specifically, by 19.5%, followed by Las Palmas (13.8%), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (12%), Alicante (11.3%), Barcelona (10.5%) and the Balearic Islands (10.4%).

The Spanish market continues to grow at various speeds, with large cities driving prices and sales. Guipúzcoa, Barcelona and Madrid are the most expensive provinces in Spain, with prices per square metre of more than €2,880/m2.

By contrast, the provinces that are suffering from depopulation and ageing demographics are recording significant price decreases (…). Toledo is not only the province that has recorded the largest decrease in prices since the peak (-55%), it is also the cheapest, with prices of €948/m2. It is followed by Ciudad Real, where second-hand homes are going for €990/m2.

Original story: Expansión (by I. Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake

House Prices Will Rise by 5%+ in 2019 & Sales Will Grow by 13%

8 January 2019 – Expansión

The normalisation of the market in Madrid and Barcelona will make way for high growth in provincial capitals such as Valencia, Málaga, Palma and Sevilla. Rents will rise by more than 10% in the large capitals and sales could exceed 600,000 units in total.

Housing is going to enter a new phase of the cycle in 2019. After a year of expansion in 2018, with growth brushing the records seen before the crisis, this is going to be the year of consolidation, but also of awakening in the medium-sized capitals.

A panel of experts consulted by Expansión foresees an average price rise of more than 5%, and an increase in the sales volume of between 10% and 13%, which means that house sales may exceed the threshold of 600,000 units. That would make 2019 the seventh consecutive year of improvement in the residential sector after prices decreased by more than 30% during the years of the crisis.

Madrid and Barcelona, which inaugurated the recovery in 2016 and which have been leading the housing charge until now, are going to begin a process of normalisation. The experts agree that moderation will be felt in those two markets in particular. In the case of Barcelona, the political uncertainty, control measures from the Town Hall and price levels reached could lead to corrections in some districts where prices have already peaked.

This year, it will be the new capitals that will lead the growth of the market. The last quarter of 2018 already closed with three revelations: Valencia, Málaga and Tarragona led the increase in sales prices, with rises of more than 15%, according to data from Tinsa. In 2019, the experts are placing their focus on those and other cities, such as Sevilla Alicante, Palma, Bilbao, Murcia and Zaragoza. In the large capitals, price increases will exceed 10%.

The rise in sales prices versus the stagnation of wages will continue to cause demand to increase in the rental market, which will rise by around 7%, and by more than two-digits in the large cities, where price tensions are even greater. The volatility of the financial markets will continue to make rental a very attractive investment option. Nevertheless, the experts warn that the uncertainty regarding the measures approved by the Government in terms of the rental segment could put future investments at risk.

Whether the sector tends towards a plateau or rather moderate growth will depend on factors such as the evolution of the economy, policy changes by the ECB and the measures that the Government decides to introduce.

Original story: Expansión (by Inma Benedito)

Translation: Carmel Drake