Tag: house prices

Signs of a Slowdown Arise in Barcelona

1 July 2019 – Richard D. K. Turner

After years of sequential, significant increases, the residential housing market rose by a mere 1.6% in Barcelona, over a period of twelve 12 months. The same figure for the first two quarters of the year reached -1.7% q-o-q, according to Tinsa, as prices began to fall at the end of last year.  

Residential housing prices fell by 2.6% y-o-y in the Ciutat Vella, the historic centre of Barcelona. Moreover, while not a single district in Barcelona saw growth in excess of 10%, the highest growth came in peripheral areas of the city. A similar tendency was evident in Madrid, where peripheral areas also saw significant growth.

The city of Salamanca, on the other hand, saw growth of 11% last year, bringing the average price of finished housing (new and used) to 5,161 euros per square meter, the only district of the five major Spanish capitals with prices above 5,000 euros. In Valencia, almost half of the districts recorded increases of more than 10%.

Original Story: El Confidencial – E. Sanz

 

Bank of Spain: Spain’s Housing Market is Not Overvalued

9 June 2019 – Eje Prime

The Bank of Spain does not think that a real estate bubble exists. The institution’s Director General of Economics and Statistics, Óscar Arce, has assured that the bank does not consider that the housing market is “overvalued in general”. Nevertheless, he is following the sector “very closely” given its history.

Arce highlighted several differences between the current climate and the previous cycle including the fact that price rises now are not uniform across all regions or cities. In fact, according to the latest data published by the Bank of Spain, average house prices rose by 6.8% YoY during Q1 2019, driven by Madrid, Barcelona, some parts of the coast and the islands.

Original story: Eje Prime 

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Moody’s: The Average LTV on Residential Mortgages Amounted to 64.6% in Q1 2019

30 May 2019 – El Diario

According to the latest data from INE, more and more people are taking out a mortgage to buy a home in Spain. 30,716 mortgage contracts were signed in March, up by 15.8% YoY.

Many buyers are attracted by rising house prices (investment growth), which the ratings agency Moody’s considers is something “positive”. However, with personal savings rates in freefall, banks are having to lend more than ever to enable families to afford their homes.

Specifically, the percentage that the loan granted represents over the appraisal value of the property (LTV) amounted to 66.5% in Q4 2018, its highest figure ever. That figure moderated slightly to 64.6% in Q1 2019 but many families are now asking to borrow 65%-70% of the value of their homes, which means a greater risk for banks and a higher probability of defaulted payments.

According to Moody’s, whilst a portfolio with an average LTV of more than 80% has a default rate of more than 6%, a portfolio with an average LTV of less than 60% has a default rate of 1%.

Nevertheless, although some banks are now lending mortgages with LTVs of 100% in certain cases, the percentage of loans with LTVs of more than 80% is lower than it was before the crisis. Such mortgages currently account for 13.1% of the total compared with 17% in 2006.

Moreover, according to Moody’s, mortgage borrowers are better off today than they were at the outbreak of the crisis as they are in a better position to afford interest rate rises and other changes in the market thanks to the strict criteria that the financial entities have applied when granting loans in recent years.

Original story: El Diario (by Marina Estévez Torreblanca)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Property Developers Glimpse the First Signs of a Moderation in Prices

29 May 2019 – Expansión

Yesterday, several of the largest property developers in Spain met for a Medcap roundtable event moderated by Deloitte to discuss the outlook for the residential market.

Specifically, representatives from Metrovacesa, Aedas, Quabit, Insur and Lar participated in the discussions, during which they observed that house prices in Spain are starting to moderate in some of the more mature markets, although they acknowledged that there are still many secondary cities where the new (growth) cycle is just beginning.

In this context, the representatives identified a number of focuses and challenges facing the sector, namely:

Licences: All of the property developers are pushing for great agility from the public administrations when it comes to the granting of construction permits.

Construction: The labour shortage in the construction sector is pushing up prices and leading to delays in project finishes.

Concentration: Property developers are larger and more professionalised now than before the crisis; they require critical mass to be resilient to real estate cycles.

Industrialisation: Prefabricated homes allow construction periods to be shortened and for greater control over the processes.

Access: Young people are finding it increasingly difficult to afford to buy a home.

Overall, the experts consider that the residential sector is still immersed in the early stages of the new cycle, but only time will tell whether they are right.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Fotocasa: House Prices in Ibiza Cost 38% More Now Than in 2008

25 April 2019 – El Confidencial

Together with Madrid and Barcelona, the real estate market in the Balearic Islands has led the real estate recovery in recent years. Boosted by its geographical limitations (land for the construction of new homes is finite), the boom in tourist rents and the huge push from foreign demand (foreigners account for 30% of transactions), house prices have soared over the last four years to return to the levels of the bubble, and, in some cases, even higher.

Specifically, house prices in both Ibiza and Calvià are now higher than their historical peaks at the height of the previous cycle (up by 38% and 1.6%, respectively, compared to February 2008). That is according to data published by Fotocasa relating to second-hand homes, which reveals that the number of building permits being granted in the two municipalities has also returned to pre-crisis levels.

In fact, Ibiza is one of the most expensive cities in Spain for buying a home, after San Sebastián and Sant Cugat del Vallès, according to Engel & Völkers. Much of the rise in house prices on the island is due to the strong rise in demand, especially from overseas buyers, with Germans leading the ranking by nationality.

According to the College of Registrars, the Balearic Islands is the second most active autonomous region in Spain in terms of house sales with 13.41 sales per 1,000 inhabitants, outperformed only by the Community of Valencia with 15.88 and ahead of the Community of Madrid with 11.63. Moreover, it is the eighth most active province by absolute number of transactions.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Bank of Spain Warns of Mismatch Between Housing Supply and Demand

11 April 2019 – El Confidencial

According to the Bank of Spain, there is a mismatch between the homes that buyers are demanding and those that are available for sale. Indeed, that is one of the main conclusions of the latest report published by the supervisory body entitled the “Recent evolution of the housing market in Spain”.

According to the report, one of the key characteristics of the Spanish property market is its high degree of heterogeneity by region, type of home (new and second-hand) and buyer nationality. “The characteristics of the homes demanded do not necessarily match with the available supply, in certain places, and may differ in terms of size, quality and location”.

In addition, the Bank of Spain warns about the difficulties that young people are facing when it comes to affording a home, as a result of their precarious working conditions. Their situation is further compounded by changes made in recent years regarding tax breaks (the removal of them) for buying a home and the growth of the rental sector.

The Bank’s analysis focuses on Madrid and Barcelona, which are both very close to the peaks of the boom in terms of rental prices. Meanwhile, house prices are currently around their 2006 levels.

Nevertheless, according to the report, it does now seem easier to obtain a mortgage or at least one with more favourable terms for the borrower. Interest rates have decreased and lending periods (mortgage terms) have increased. Approval criteria and general financing conditions have also been relaxed.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E.S.)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

ST: House Prices Rose by 9% in Madrid & 7.8% in Cataluña in 2018

7 April 2019 – Público

According to the “House Market Study in the Community of Madrid and Cataluña” report published by Sociedad de Tasación, house prices rose by 9% in Madrid and by 7.8% in Cataluña in 2018.

Specifically, Madrid recorded the second highest increase in house prices of all the autonomous regions in 2018, with the average price reaching €2,389/m2.

Meanwhile, Cataluña, which registered the third highest rise in house prices, saw its average price increase to €2,297/m2.

The average increase for the country as a whole was 5.5%, with the highest average price rise observed in the Balearic Islands.

Original story: Público 

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

High Land Costs Drive up House Prices in the Balearic Islands

27 February 2019 – Diario de Mallorca

The property market in the Balearic Islands is experiencing the perfect storm. Very high land prices are driving up the cost of the few new homes that are being built. As such, local residents are facing serious difficulties when it comes to affording a home.

Not only are land prices high; in many cases, the plots are owned by large business groups, which are opting to hold onto them to benefit from further capital appreciation rather than develop or sell them immediately. What’s more, the few new homes that are being developed are very expensive, beyond the reach of most local families.

These factors are compounded by the complete failure on the part of the public authorities to construct any social housing in recent years, which only serves to aggravate the housing shortage in the market.

There is a great deal of demand, not only from local families, but also from foreigners, who want homes of their own on the island, and from seasonal workers moving from other parts of the country. Moreover, supply is limited and as such, prices are soaring. This situation is made worse by the fact that many overseas buyers and renters can afford to pay more than most islanders, which is driving out the locals.

All in all, it’s a gloomy picture for island residents.

Original story: Diario de Mallorca (by F. Guijarro)

Summary/Translation: Carmel Drake

Andalucía’s Property Market is Operating at Four Speeds

3 March 2019 – ABC Sevilla

According to INE, more than 100,000 homes were sold in Andalucía in 2018, a figure not seen since 2008. That figure represented an increase of 13.1% YoY, but growth was far from uniform across the region.

The main driver was the province of Málaga, where almost 32,500 homes were sold last year, up by 5% YoY. In fact, Málaga, along with Barcelona, Madrid, Alicante and Valencia accounted for almost 40% of all house sales in Spain as a whole in 2018 (with 235,000 sales between the five provinces).

Elsewhere in Andalucía, 17,626 homes were sold in the province of Sevilla, up by 19% YoY. Its rate of growth was higher than in Málaga since the recovery started there two years later.

In this sense, Francisco Martínez-Cañavate, President of Fadeco Promotores (pictured above), points out that “there is a lot of demand in the province of Málaga; then there is a second speed in Sevilla; a third in Cádiz, Granada and Almería; and finally a fourth in Córdoba, Huelva and Jaén”.

Original story: ABC Sevilla (by E. Freire)

Summary/Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Real Estate Sector Condemns the Government’s New Rental Act

1 March 2019 – Ok Diario

The real estate sector has expressed its widespread disapproval of the Royal Decree Law approved by the Government on Friday containing urgent measures for the housing and rental sectors.

Investment funds, real estate experts and rental associations alike have all condemned the new law as discriminatory, restrictive and short-termist.

Claudio Boada, Head Consultant at Blackstone España, said that the new legislation will undoubtedly result in more upwards pressure on prices and a reduction in supply, whilst sources at Fotocasa criticised the lack of tax incentives for landlords who rent their homes at affordable prices.

If this royal decree is ratified, then “rental contracts will have been subject to three different sets of rules in less than three months”, observed Gustavo Rossi from Alquiler Seguro, which is both confusing and unsustainable.

Original story: Ok Diario 

Summary translation by: Carmel Drake