Tag: heterogeneity

Ministry of Development: Real Estate Activity is Non-Existent in 40+ Spanish Municipalities

21 April 2019 – El Confidencial

There is barely any real estate activity in more than 100 Spanish municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants. In 42, not a single building permit to construct a new home was issued in 2018. Not one. And in another 100, fewer than five permits were issued, whilst in 200, fewer than ten permits were issued.

That is according to data from the Ministry of Development, which reveals the extent of the disparity between the booming areas of Madrid, Barcelona, the Costa del Sol and the islands, amongst others, and the complete dearth of activity in other parts of the country.

Asturias and Murcia are the autonomous regions that are suffering the most where construction activity has been all but suspended. The driving factors are multiple, but a lack of demand is key. Moreover, even where there is buyer interest, there is not enough buildable land to develop, construction costs are high, financing is hard to come by and qualified labour is scarce.

Even at the national level, although 100,000 new home permits were issued last year, that figure is still eight times lower than it was in 2006, when 865,561 new build permits were awarded. And although the experts agree that a healthy market will never see a return to the pre-crisis figures, the volume of new home construction is still well below the 150,000-200,000 benchmark that property developers consider sustainable.

By contrast, in certain parts of the Community of Madrid, lots more building permits were granted last year than during the height of the boom, for example, in Tres Cantos (657 in 2018 compared with 6 in 2006) and Rivas Vaciamadrid (1,345 compared with 831 twelve years ago). There was also a lot of activity in Boadilla del Monte, San Sebastián de los Reyes and Alcobendas. Beyond the capital, more new build permits were granted last year than in 2006 in Pamplona, Lasarte and Santiago de Compostela, amongst others.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Bank of Spain Warns of Mismatch Between Housing Supply and Demand

11 April 2019 – El Confidencial

According to the Bank of Spain, there is a mismatch between the homes that buyers are demanding and those that are available for sale. Indeed, that is one of the main conclusions of the latest report published by the supervisory body entitled the “Recent evolution of the housing market in Spain”.

According to the report, one of the key characteristics of the Spanish property market is its high degree of heterogeneity by region, type of home (new and second-hand) and buyer nationality. “The characteristics of the homes demanded do not necessarily match with the available supply, in certain places, and may differ in terms of size, quality and location”.

In addition, the Bank of Spain warns about the difficulties that young people are facing when it comes to affording a home, as a result of their precarious working conditions. Their situation is further compounded by changes made in recent years regarding tax breaks (the removal of them) for buying a home and the growth of the rental sector.

The Bank’s analysis focuses on Madrid and Barcelona, which are both very close to the peaks of the boom in terms of rental prices. Meanwhile, house prices are currently around their 2006 levels.

Nevertheless, according to the report, it does now seem easier to obtain a mortgage or at least one with more favourable terms for the borrower. Interest rates have decreased and lending periods (mortgage terms) have increased. Approval criteria and general financing conditions have also been relaxed.

Original story: El Confidencial (by E.S.)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

BBVA Research: RE Sector Makes “Good Start” To 2017

6 June 2017 – El Mundo

BBVA Research has given the real estate sector a “good mark” for the first quarter of 2017, following a “positive” trend in terms of sales, which accelerated the growth in prices. However, the organisation indicated that the sector showed signs of a “significant heterogeneity” by region once again, and that there was a loss of “momentum” in terms of new loans in April due to a decrease in refinancings.

That was according to the latest Real Estate Observatory for Spain report, prepared by BBVA Research, the financial entity’s research service, which acknowledges a “positive trend” in terms of house sales, given that, based on data from the Centre for Statistical Information from Notaries (CIEN), 48,695 homes were sold during the month of March.

This means, after correcting the series for seasonal variations and calendar effects (CVEC), there was a stagnation in sales with respect to the previous month, but an increase in sales (19.5%) in YoY terms. In this way, sales during the 3 months to March rose by 16.2% YoY, above the average for 2016, in large part thanks to the fact that the main determinants of demand “continued their positive tone during the first quarter of the year”, said BBVA Research.

In this sense, it highlighted that employment is continuing to evolve positively, given that the number of people registered for Social Security in April and May grew at an average MoM rate of 0.4%, above the average monthly rate recorded during the first quarter (+0.3%) (…).

Fewer new loans

Nevertheless, the report warns that new loan operations to buy a home stagnated in April, due to a sharp decline in the number of refinancings. According to data from the Bank of Spain, during the fourth month of 2017, new loans to buy a home decreased by 41.6% YoY, a reduction that actually reflects the high volume of refinancings that took place in April 2016. As such, if we exclude refinancings, the number of new loan operations remained stable with respect to the same month last year (-0.1%).

BBVA Research is “certain” that the stagnation is related to the fact that Easter fell in April this year. In fact, the sum of new operations in March and April rose by 13.1% YoY. With this, during the first four months of the year, new loans to buy a home rose by 10.6%, with respect to the same period a year earlier. Excluding refinancings, which decreased by 86% during the same period, the increase in new mortgage loans amounted to 16.5%. (…).

Heterogeneity in terms of price rises

Meanwhile, the growth in house prices accelerated during the first quarter of 2017. According to the Ministry of Development, the average house price amounted to €1,525.80/m2 during the first quarter, up by 0.7% in QoQ terms, after correcting for seasonality (CVEC), in other words, 0.2 percentage points higher than during the fourth quarter of 2016. Moreover, the YoY evolution saw an acceleration in the growth rate to 2.2% during Q1, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.

In any case, BBVA Research indicates that the evolution of house prices was still “significantly heterogeneous by region” between January and March. After correcting the series for seasonality, price rises were reported in nine autonomous regions (Andalucía, Canarias, Cantabria, Cataluña, Comunidad Valenciana, Madrid, Murcia, Navarra and País Vasco), with particularly noteworthy rises in Cantabria, Navarra and País Vasco – the three regions have shown less activity in previous quarters.

By contrast, average house prices fell during the first quarter with respect to the previous quarter in all of the other autonomous regions, led by Aragón and La Rioja, which saw QoQ decreases of around -2%. (…)….whilst the price increases being recorded in the Balearic Islands, Madrid and Cataluña exceeded 10% in all three cases.

Housing permits on the rise again

Finally, the first quarter of 2017 closed with a renewed growth in construction activity. (…). The number of housing permits rose by 18.7% during Q1 2017. In this way, almost 20,000 new homes were approved during the first three months, up by 3,141 compared to the same quarter in 2016. (…) .

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake