Tag: golden visas

Another RE Bubble? S&P Forecast House Price Rises Until 2020

3 August 2017 – Cinco Días

After years of crisis, the Spanish real estate market is now growing again year after year. That is according to analysis prepared by Standard & Poor’s, which estimates that house prices will rise by 4% in 2017 and by 4.5% in 2018, with respect to the previous year.

The report also forecasts a reduction in inflation. Currently, prices are rising at 1.5% p.a. but that figure is expected to decrease to 1.3% in 2018. Moreover, economic growth in Spain is expected to lead to a reduction in unemployment, down to 15.7%. And that percentage is forecast to fall to 13.6% by 2020.

Despite the positive outlook, the risk measurement entity warns of the risk that Brexit, the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, could have, given that currently, Brits account for 19% of foreign house buyers in Spain.

House sales are growing to both domestic and international buyers. In 2016, the total volume of transactions rose by 13.7% to reach 404,000 homes sold in Spain. During the 12 months to April 2017, 416,000 homes were sold, up by 11.8%.

Sales to foreigners grew by 13.8% in 2016. In total, 53,500 of the 404,000 homes purchased were transferred into foreign hands. The main buyers were British, who accounted for 19% of purchases by foreigners; followed by the French (8.05%) and Germans (7.69%). Moreover, the report points out that the so-called golden visas, which grant residence permits to those foreigners who invest more than €500,000 in real estate, excluding taxes, have led to an increase in acquisitions by Russian and Asian citizens.

Standard & Poor’s also expects that the European market will continue to grow. The ratings agency forecasts that house prices will rise in many of the neighbouring countries, such as Germany, where they are expected to increase by 6% next year. Nevertheless, in the main countries that the buyers in Spain come from, in other words, the United Kingdom and France, prices are expected to decrease by 1% or remain stable, respectively.

This growth in sales has meant that house prices have not slowed down. According to the real estate appraisal company Tinsa, house prices rose by 3% during the second quarter of 2017 compared to June last year. Currently, according to the same firm, the average price of homes per square metre in June 2017 amounted to €1,245/m2, well below the peaks of 2007 (€2,047.69/m2).

Sources at Standard & Poor’s expect that the Spanish economy will continue to grow in 2017, by 3% for the third consecutive year. The creation of 2 million jobs since 2013 and the increase in exports are the main drivers of confidence that the firm is using to justify the rise in house prices, although it also warns of the need that Spain has to reduce its deficit, which is one of the highest in the Eurozone.

Ultimately, economic growth will be reflected in real estate growth over the next three years. The slow reduction in the stock of housing accumulated during the years of the bubble and the slow, albeit inexorable, rise in interest rates (the first rise is expected to happen in 2019) will limit the rise in house prices. Standard & Poor’s also questions the effect of Brexit on the real estate market.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Fernando Cardona and Eduardo García)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Only 490 Homes Sold In Exchange For “Express Visas”

17 February 2015 – El Mundo

The Government has raised €369 million in 15 months from its offer to grant residency to those buying property for more than €500,000.

Spain does not attract as many foreigners as Portugal does through its program.

The controversial express visas that the Government introduced through the Entrepreneurs Act, in order to raise foreign capital, have only attracted 530 international investors in the 15 months since the legislation came into effect, according to data provided by the Secretary of State for Trade. The millionaires that have moved to Spain in exchange for a residency permit have invested only €446.8 million, of which only €369.7 million has been spent on house purchases.

These figures are much lower than those recorded in Portugal for its golden visa program. The neighbouring country has managed to secure more than €1,100 million for the 1,649 golden visas that it has granted (figures to November 2014).

Given the limited interest from the very investors that the Government sought to attract by granting them permanent residency in an EU country, and given the suspicion with which the European Parliament views these types of programs, the Government is preparing rules for the enforcement of this legislation which, amongst other things, will give more guarantees to investors.

The so-called golden visas were approved, not without controversy, in the summer of 2013 as part of the Entrepreneurs Act. The idea of the Executive was to attract foreign investment through these permits and whereby reduce the huge stock of housing in Spain. As a result, it was decided that residency permits would be granted to those investors buying properties worth more than €500,000 (excluding taxes) and those deciding to invest significant quantities in Spanish company shares, domestic bank deposits, public debt or any other general interest project.

A year and three months after the Act came into force, the program has only facilitated the sale of 490 properties (out of a total of 830,000 properties sold during this period), according to the National Institute of Statistics (el Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas or INE) and investors have been incentivised to close only 29 transactions to purchase shares and another 12 transactions of general interest, according to data from the Secretariat that reports to the Ministry of the Economy.

Portugal has had more success with these visas and the key reason for this lies in the fine print of the legislation, which is more favourable for investors. “In Spain, we grant residency in exchange for investment, rather than nationality for investment like in other countries. Moreover, in Portugal, it is possible to become a citizen once you are a permanent resident. By contrast, in Spain, permanent residency only lasts for two years, rather than five years, which means that documentation must be renewed and residency justified on a more frequent basis”, explains Pamela Mafuz, Associate in Employment at Baker & McKenzie.

However, Portugal’s first-mover advantage is also behind its success. “Portugal was able to get ahead and be one of the first to implement this policy and that always has a positive influence” says Borja Ortega, Director of Private Wealth at JLL.

Whilst in other countries, such as Malta, there has been a lot of overseas publicity about the existence of the programs to grant visas to rich people, the Spanish Government has barely promoted its initiative, partly for fear of controversy.

Most of the beneficiaries of the visas granted to date are Russian and Chinese citizens. But, Baker & McKenzie report that their office also receives lots of questions from investors interested in these visas from the Persian Gulf, Egypt and Jordan.

“Many Latin-American investors are also interested in purchasing property (in Spain), due to the special bond that they have with the country. But, for them the visa is usually a secondary consideration because they tend to have other means of obtaining residency”, says Margarita Fernández, also an Associate at Baker & McKenzie.

Just like with the large funds, the majority of the investors seeking golden visas want to buy homes in big cities. “Housing is in highest demand. Specifically, single family homes and in terms of location, the region of Madrid is clearly the preferred destination”, says Ortega.

Original story: El Mundo (by María Vega)

Translation: Carmel Drake