BBVA Research: The New Rental Decree & AJD Law Will Dissuade Investment in Housing

15 April 2019 – Expansión

BBVA Research is predicting a slowdown in the increase in residential investment this year and next, with forecast growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.3% in 2020, after the sector closed 2018 with growth of 6.9%.

According to the Spain Watch report compiled by the research house, the main driver behind the expected slowdown is the regulatory changes that “are affecting the sector and increasing legal uncertainty for landlords, which are reducing the incentives to entry for large investors and making purchases in regions with exposure to the tourist sector less attractive”.

The legal uncertainty first emerged at the end of 2018 when changes were made to the rental law and to who is responsible for paying Stamp Duty (AJD). Previously it was the purchaser; now it is the lender bank. That has resulted in a deceleration in residential sales, which may only be temporary, but at this stage is too early to say.

Meanwhile, BBVA Research has revised down its forecasts for the construction sector for this year and next, with increases of 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, in light of the above.

Original story: Expansión

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Neinor Revises its Profit Forecast for 2019 Down by 50%

9 April 2019 – Expansión

Neinor has a new CEO and is revising down its profit and construction forecasts. Borja García-Egotxeaga (pictured below), Operations Director at the property developer until now, will take over from Juan Velayos, and will oversee a new-look strategic plan.

The revised forecasts involve the firm delivering between 1,200 and 1,700 homes in 2019, compared with the 2,000 units initially planned, and achieving an EBITDA of €70 million, down by 53% compared to the initial projection of €150 million.

Neinor has also cut its forecasts for 2020, with a revised EBITDA of €100 million for next year compared with the initial forecast of €300 million, as well as new home deliveries of between 1,700 and 2,400 units, down from 4,000.

The company underlined its intention to remunerate its shareholders with dividend distributions of €200 million until 2022 and to repurchase up to €100 million in shares to offset the decrease in its share price.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

Témpore Cut its Losses by 46% in 2018

27 February 2019 – Europa Press

Témpore, the rental home Socimi constituted by Sareb to provide an outlet for its residential portfolio, closed 2018 with a net loss of -€384,394. That figure represents a 46% reduction in the losses recorded a year earlier, according to reports from the firm, which is listed on the MAB.

The result also improves on the forecasts set out by the company in its listing prospectus by 13%.

Témpore’s portfolio of 2,249 homes and parking spaces generated revenues from rental income of €7.3 million last year, up by 1.3%, thanks to the renewal of contracts and the consequent increase in rents.

The increase in the firm’s housing stock, through a contribution from Sareb by a non-monetary capital increase, did not have any impact on last year’s accounts because it was not closed until the end of the period.

Nevertheless, it allowed Témpore to close the year with assets worth €339 million, a figure that almost doubles (+93%) the volume in the year of its constitution and, which, according to its data, consolidates the firm’s position as the third largest rental home company in the country.

Higher rents, lower defaults

In operational terms, the Socimi managed to reduce the default rate of its tenants to 4%, compared with 5.5% at the end of 2017.

Moreover, it achieved an average increase in rental prices of 12% for the new contracts it signed and its contract renewals (…).

Original story: Europa Press 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Meliá Earned 13% More in 2018 but its Revenues Fell by 1.5%

1 March 2019 – Expansión

Meliá ended the year with a slight decrease in revenues (1.5%) to €1.83 billion, which it blamed on a deceleration in the tourism sector. Nevertheless, its net profits rose by 13% to €140 million.

The decrease in revenues was due above all to the impact of the devaluation of the US dollar in the America region during the first quarter of the year – one of the most important for the company in the region – and the closure of several hotels for renovation in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. There was also a slow down in the Mediterranean and Cuba.

Despite the slow down in turnover, the company’s EBITDA increased by 7% to €326 million, following the sale of three hotels to the Socimi Atom in the summer and due to an appreciation in the value of its assets. Excluding those gains, Meliá’s EBITDA in the period increased by 0.9% to €307 million (…).

Looking ahead to 2019, Meliá is cautious regarding the evolution of the markets in America and the Canary Islands, but, by contrast, is optimistic about the markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), where it expects RevPAR growth of low to average digits, primarily due to the strong outlook in Continental Europe, as well as in Spain. Specifically, it forecasts a recovery in Barcelona, Madrid and Sevilla.

Original story: Expansión (by R.A)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Madrid’s Office Market in 2019: Stable Yields & Investment of €3bn

20 February 2019 – Eje Prime

Investment in offices in Madrid is on the rise. Total investment of €3 billion is forecast in the office market in the Spanish capital this year, which will see it maintain the yield for prime offices at 3.75%. In terms of office rents, a boom of 9.8% is forecast, along with a decrease in the availability rate, which is set fall from 11.6% in 2018 to 9% in 2021. Modest growth forecasts for the sector, with a lower supply of prime spaces, are going to contribute to an increase in rents.

With this data, Madrid is positioning itself amongst the capitals with the lowest yields on its luxury offices, with a figure comparable to those of Singapore (3.34%), Amsterdam (3.35%) and Paris (3%), but well below those of Moscow (8.5%) and Washington DC (6.2%), according to the Global Outlook 2019 report, compiled by Knight Frank.

In terms of the growth forecast for office rents, the Spanish capital is expected to maintain stable growth (…).

In terms of the availability rate, Madrid is forecast to decrease from 11.6% in 2018 to 9% in 2021, placing it amongst the cities with most available offices, well below Berlin, with a forecast rate of 2.2% (…). Available prime offices will also decrease, which will lead to a rise in rents. According to the study, this is the result of the recovery of the residential market, which is also sparking interest amongst investors.

One of the greatest opportunities in the sector are the coworking offices, which are transforming conventional offices into new spaces for working and incentivising employees. “Whilst some markets are reaching maturity, at the global level, we expect to see a boost to this business in 2019”, say the authors of the report.

In summary, the office market in Spain is expected to be relatively stable during the year ahead, despite global challenges (…).

Original story: Eje Prime (by Marta Casado Pla)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Knight Frank: High Street Investment Soared by 84% to €1.3bn in 2018

31 January 2019 – Eje Prime

The real estate sector has closed another year with a strong performance in the Spanish market. As we approach the end of the real estate cycle in the country, the tertiary sector is continuing to maintain high levels of investment, with growing rents and sustainable yields.

In the retail sector, the investment volume amounted to around €3.7 billion in 2018, according to data from Knight Frank. The main driver of that investment was the high street, where spending soared by 84% to €1.3 billion.

Despite that, the bulk of retail investment in Spain continued to be directed towards shopping centres, which accounted for 54% of the total last year with major operations such as the sale of the Summit portfolio, owned by Sonae Sierra in conjunction with CBRE GI, and of which 87% is now controlled by JT Real Estate.

Moreover, the consultancy firm highlights that interest has increased from investors in shopping centres and isolated retail warehouses in good locations “which allow them to manage last mile delivery points”, said the consultancy firm.

Returns have remained stable across the three segments with yields of 5.25% for retail parks, 4.25% for shopping centres and 3% for high street assets.

Despite the strong performance of the retail sector in 2018, the jewel in the Spanish real estate crown is still the logistics segment. In 2018, investment in logistics assets amounted to €1.255 billion, close to the record set in 2017 of €1.28 billion.

In the last quarter, several large operations were closed, such as Blackstone’s purchase of a portfolio of 55 assets from Neinver for €300 million.

Interest in the segment continues to generate expectations regarding the compression of yields, and so Knight Frank forecasts returns of around 5% this year.

Finally, the office sector has also maintained a robust rate of activity, after the maximums recorded in 2017 thanks to operations undertaken by the Administration. Specifically, Knight Frank estimates that 2018 closed with a gross absorption of 493,000 m2.

Following the trend set in 2017, 52% of the surface area leased was located outside of the M-30, although during the final quarter, it was the secondary centre that accounted for the bulk of the space rented, around 35%.

Prime office rents remained stable at around €30.5/m2/month, and reached maximums of €38.5/m2/month in the most sought-after areas of the business district.

Original story: Eje Prime

Translation: Carmel Drake

Apple Leisure Group Debuts in Spain with its Purchase of a Majority Stake in Alua Hotels

23 January 2019 – Revista 80 Días

The US group is one of the largest managers of accommodation in the Caribbean. This purchase allows it to enter the vacation segment and the European market.

Apple Leisure Group (ALG), one of the largest hotel investors in the USA, has acquired a majority stake in the share capital of Alua Hotels and Resorts, the hotel group founded in 2015 by its main executives and the private equity fund Alchemy Partners. The amount of the purchase has not been revealed, although the joint operating result of the chain’s main hotels amounted to €6 million in 2017. Given that the properties are located in areas with high tourist demand and good forecasts, the amount of the operation could have exceeded €40 million, based on the multiples that are typically used for this type of transaction.

With this acquisition, ALG is entering the European market through the sun and beach holiday segment. And it is doing so in a country such as Spain, which receives more than 80 million tourists per year in search of that kind of offer. Alua Hotels has 11 hotels located in Mallorca, Ibiza, Fuerteventura and Tenerife, together with an apartment building in Ibiza.

In total, ALG will manage more than 3,000 4-star hotel rooms, focused on the type of tourist who wants a superior service to that usually found in the average accommodation establishments in beach areas. The US company is planning to undertake more acquisitions in the European market and has announced that it wants to become a reference player in the main destinations in the Mediterranean (…).

Apple Leisure Group is one of the most important investment conglomerates in tourism in the USA. It used to be owned by the investment fund Bain Capital (…), which sold it in 2017 to the funds KSL Capital Partners and KKR for an undisclosed sum. (…). According to data from the conglomerate, it manages 14 brands and handles more than 3.2 million passengers per year (…). Its turnover exceeds USD 3 billion per year (…).

Original story: Revista 80 Días 

Translation: Carmel Drake

The Reuben Brothers Complete the Purchase of Santander’s HQ for €283M

14 January 2019 – El Periódico

Commercial Court number 9 in Madrid has decided that the best offer for the acquisition of Santander’s Ciudad Financiera, is the one presented by the brothers Simon and David Reuben through their investment arm in Spain, Sorlinda Investment, which bid a fixed amount of €283.73 million.

The administration responsible for the liquidation procedure of the company Marme Inversiones 2007, which is the owner of the Cantabrian bank’s headquarters, asked the Commercial Court to declare the offer presented by Sorlinda Investment as the winner after concluding that its bid was the best. In 2014, Marme Inversiones filed for creditors’ bankruptcy in light of its inability to repay the €1.575 billion loan that it had used to purchase the property from Banco Santander itself.

A few months ago, Banco Santander filed a series of allegations when it was announced that Sorlinda had won the bid. It questioned the entity in terms of the forecasts made in the liquidation plan, and because it considered that the offer submitted by the Reuben brothers did not fulfil the established requirements. The allegations were made by the banking group as creditor and offeror.

Nevertheless, the Commercial Court of Madrid explained that the execution of the liquidation plan, which regulates the procedures to be followed for the realisation of the assets, corresponds to the insolvency administration.

“The report presented explains the procedure followed for the selection of the bids submitted and the actions carried out by the insolvency administration, specifying that there are no justifications whatsoever to question it”, said the ruling, which states that the purpose of the plan is to obtain the greatest value from the asset for the benefit of all of the creditors.

In this way, despite the allegations presented by Ana Botín’s bank, the insolvency administration considers that, from an economic point of view, the offer presented by Sorlinda is the best for covering the loans of all of the creditors in the group.

The Reuben brothers, owners of other large assets

Reuben Brothers is a private investment group specialising in real estate development and debt financing. The company, created by two British brothers of Indian origin, is considered as one of the most exclusive in the world with several privileged properties in its portfolio, such as The Curtain and Members Club in Shoreditch, one of the most well-known luxury hotels in London, and Lingfield Park Marriott Hotel & Country Club.

It is also the owner of the London Oxford airport in Kidlington, the Wellington Pub Company chain of clubs and the Italian marina Portosole Sanremo, amongst others.

Ana Botín’s entity agreed the sale of its head offices in Boadilla del Monte to Marme Inversiones 2007 on 12 September 2008 for €1.904 billion.

Nevertheless, Marme Inversiones 2007 filed for creditors’ bankruptcy in 2014, before the Court then initiated the coordinated liquidation plan in October 2015 (…).

Original story: El Periódico

Translation: Carmel Drake

Urbas’s Share Price Rallies Following the Publication of its 5-Year Strategic Plan

8 January 2019 – Idealista

Few events are as long-awaited by investors and analysts as the presentation of the strategic plan of a listed company. Above all, when that company has had a difficult year on the stock market, such as the case of Urbas. The real estate company, a classic amongst the ‘small cap’ or companies with a small market capitalisation in the Spanish market, is leading the first stock market rally of 2019 in the sector after losing almost 75% of its value in 2018.

During the first week of the year, Urbas’s share price has recorded a large rise of 30%. In reality, the reaction began during the final week of last year, when the group revealed the broad strokes of its strategy for the period 2019-2024. Its plan pivots around a reduction in the level of debt, generating value from its assets and the payment of a dividend from 2022.

The market has picked up on the company’s message, which with a land portfolio of almost 18 million m2, also wants to provide a new boost to its property developer business. But its number one objective is to reorganise its debt balance, which amounted to €194 million at the end of the third quarter, up by 3.7% compared to the same period a year earlier. The figure contrasts with the just over €16 million that the company is currently worth on the stock market.

The objective is to reduce the debt figure to €86 million. To achieve that, Urbas faces the challenge of moving forward with the dual negotiations that it is holding on the one hand with its creditor banks and on the other hand with Sareb to refinance its indebtedness to the necessary levels to allow it to handle new investments.

Therefore, the group’s plans are aggressive, as shown by the fact that Urbas wants to finish the first year of its new business plan with revenues of more than €20 million and a net profit of more than €14 million. By the end of the period, in 2024, the forecasts skyrocket. But, today, the reality of the group is very different. Until 30 September, Urbas lost €5 million due to the effect of the financial interest adjustment made and its revenues slightly exceeded €2 million.

In any case, the sharp rise in Urbas’s share price so far this year should be considered with the utmost caution. It is a very small security with very limited liquidity, which means that its movements may be brusque and fast, both up and down. In recent years, it has recorded large fluctuations. With the sole exception of 2017, the share price has always moved by at least 33% in each of the last nine years (…).

Original story: Idealista 

Translation: Carmel Drake

Logistics: Real Estate’s Ugly Duckling Sees its Investment Figures Soar

30 September 2018 – El Confidencial

It has always been the ugly duckling of the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the boom in e-commerce, the positive evolution of consumption and of the economy, in general, and real estate in particular, has triggered investment in these types of assets. For more than a year now, the sector has been starring in some of the most high-profile operations in the market, both at the corporate level, as well as in terms of the sale of portfolios and assets, attracting money from large international funds, as well as from domestic ones.

The data speaks for itself. Investment in logistics during the third quarter of 2018 – including plots of land – amounted to €450 million, equivalent to four times more than during the second quarter and 436% more than the figure registered during the same period a year earlier. That is according to data from the consultancy firm JLL, which shows that investment amounted to €872 million between January and September, 53% more the volume accumulated during the same period in 2017.

Moreover, the firm’s forecasts for the final stretch of the year for this sector are optimistic. “We expect the total volume to amount to €1.2 billion by the end of the year, 20% more than we expected last quarter, due to the good results and the fact that strong investor appetite is still alive”, said Borja Ortega, Director of Capital Markets at JLL.

“The logistics market is the absolute star of the real estate investment market in Spain. Investors see the potential associated with a market that has been growing for years”, says Ortega. Why? Its own fundamentals, the lack of product for investing in other segments such as offices and retail or the creation and consolidation of investors specialising in logistics”, he said.

In the last year and a half, the logistics sector has captured the media’s attention thanks to the completion of several very high profile operations. For example, on 25 September, Mango’s logistics platform in Barcelona was sold for €150 million. That asset, with a surface area of 181,000 m2 and owned by the Belgian investor group VG Partners since the end of 2016, was sold to the British Socimi Tritax Big Box.

It represented the largest investment in a single asset in the Spanish logistics market for the last four years since Logicor purchased some logistics facilities in Guadalajara spanning more than 320,000 m2 from Gran Europa for €133 million.

The operation also exceeded the €119 million that Blackstone paid in July to acquire the Socimi Lar’s logistics portfolio. In total, that deal involved 162,000 m2 of space spread over four logistics warehouses in Alovera (Guadalajara), one in the Juan Carlos I industrial estate of Almussafes (Valencia) and a plot for logistics development in Cheste (Valencia) spanning a further 182,000 m2.

Assets, portfolios, corporate operations

During the third quarter, there was a lot of movement in the sector such as the sale of two logistics portfolios – Hina Project with 6 warehouses and Gran Europa Portfolio with 3 warehouses – four purchases of logistics warehouses and a project comprising two plots in Cabanillas. Those transactions were accompanied by the purchase of two plots, one on the Centro —Ciudad del Transporte Industrial Estate in Guadalajara – and another in San Fernando de Henares. The latter was acquired by Merlin Properties for the construction of a logistics platform measuring 100,000 m2 (…).

All of these operations are happening in the midst of a genuine boom in e-commerce and online sales, a market in which the major online operators such as Amazon, Mercadona and Inditex have committed heavily. And for good reason, given that in 2017 alone, online sales moved more than €30 billion, according to data from the Spanish National Competition and Markets Commission (CNMC). And that figure is rising.

But the appetite of buyers is not only limited to the purchase of assets. At the corporate level, there have also been some significant transactions in recent months. A year ago, China Investment Corporation (CIC) completed the purchase of Logicor for €12.25 billion, one of the largest logistics companies in Europe and the largest owner of logistics assets in the Spanish market with a portfolio spanning more than 1 million m2 located primarily in Madrid and Barcelona. That operation became the second largest real estate purchase in history and the fourth largest by a Chinese company in Europe.

Meanwhile, P3 Spain Logistic Park, the logistics centre Socimi that the sovereign fund Singapore GIC owns in Spain, made its debut on the Alternative Investment Market (MAB) last year with eleven logistics centres that span a total surface area of 321,392 m2 and which are spread across five autonomous communities, although most are in Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha.

Even the Murcian businessman, Trinitario Casanova, through Grupo Baraka has backed the logistics sector. In February this year, he purchased a logistics-industrial use plot located in the municipality of Sant Esteve Sesrovires, in Barcelona.

A sector traditionally forgotten

“For years, the logistics sector has been one of the ‘great forgottens’ of the real estate sector. Nevertheless, today it is clearly a segment to which investors pay a lot of attention. (…). In fact, given the competitive pressure, it is the only sector where returns are continuing to fall. Prime returns at the end of the third quarter of 2018 amounted to 5.25%, making them lower than during the last upward cycle in 2006, when they amounted to 5.75%”, said Ortega.

On the other hand, unlike what has happened in other real estate sectors such as residential or offices, whose activity is concentrated in the major cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, 34% of logistics investment in the third quarter has been in Cataluña and 32% in Madrid. The rest has been concentrated in other regions such as Valencia (…).

Original story: El Confidencial (by E. Sanz)

Translation: Carmel Drake