Tag: forecast

AC Hoteles Plans To Open One Hotel A Week

7 November 2017 – Expansión

AC Hoteles by Marriott, one of the main Spanish hotel chains, plans to open 57 new establishments around the world between now and the end of 2018. Moreover, 12 of them will be launched before the end of 2017, according to the company’s President, Antonio Catalán.

“We are opening one hotel a week”, explained Catalán (Corella, Navarra, 1948) in an interview with Efe, in which he described the “spectacular” growth of the chain, which plans to have 190 hotels in total between 2017 and 2018, mainly in the USA and Europe.

Marriot Internacional acquired 50% of the AC brand in 2011 and since then, has rolled out establishments around the world and has started expansion into Asia. The chain forecasts turnover of €400 million this year, up by 20% compared to 2016. The US group contributed 110 million loyalty card holders to the group. “Marriott was a real coup”, said Catalán, who added that “the group has shown that it is there (for us) when the going gets tough”.

“Now, the company is completely healthy following the crisis and has no debt whatsoever”. Catalán founded the NH chain in 1977 when he purchased a hotel in Pamplona. In 1997, he decided to sell his stake and create AC. That chain now has 3,500 employees in Spain and 7,000 in the rest of the world. “I always talk about the big AC family; we do unusual things when it comes to recruitment. We don’t use temporary contracts”, says Catalán, whose aim “is not to earn millions at the expense of his employees”. (…).

Original story: Expansión

Translation: Carmel Drake

Engel & Völkers: House Prices Soar In Ibiza

21 July 2017 – Eje Prime

The real estate market in Ibiza is continuing to rise. Demand for high-end housing in Ibiza continues to significantly exceed the available supply, which has led to an increase in the prices registered on the island over the last year, according to a study prepared by the German real estate consultancy firm Engel & Völkers.

In its Ibiza Markets Report, the company explains that over the last year, it has sold homes to clients of 17 nationalities. Although most buyers on the island came from Germany, for the first time in almost ten years, Spaniards were the second largest group of house buyers.

The nationality of the other main house buyers included people from the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, Italy and the Benelux countries. “Ibiza is still one of the favourite destinations for the international jet set and retains its leadership position in the Balearic Islands as the island with the most private flights”, say sources at the consultancy firm.

One of the most sought-after areas on the Balearic Island is the city of Ibiza and its surrounding areas. The redevelopment of the old town will be completed this year and so new luxury hotels will soon enhance the exclusivity of that area. In this sense, luxury villas measuring 350 m2 saw their prices increase by 14.2% in 2016 to reach €4 million.

Properties range from contemporary designer villas to traditional estates. The asking prices for villas measuring 350 m2 start at €3.5 million, whereby exceeding the figure of €3 million paid in 2015.

Entry prices for villas measuring around 350 m2 in very good locations rose to €2.6 million in 2016 compared to €2.5 million in 2015. “We are convinced that the growth of the real estate market will continue for the rest of the year in Ibiza”, predicted Florian Fischer, Director General of Engel & Völkers España.

The consultancy firm forecasts that the high level of demand will continue, both from domestic and international buyers, for primary and secondary residences on the Balearic Islands, primarily in the most premium segment, where the limited number of exclusive properties will lead to further price increases over the long term.

Original story: Eje Prime

Translation: Carmel Drake

Tinsa: Residential Land Prices Rose By 4.1% In Málaga In Q2

17 July 2017 – Diario Sur

The housing sector in Málaga is continuing to grow. The price of residential land in the province rose by 4.1% during the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, to reach €1,399/m2, which is €154/m2 higher than the national average, according to data from the appraisal company Tinsa. It represented the highest increase in Andalucía and the sixth highest in Spain as a whole; and it consolidates the upward trend seen over the last two years, a situation that has generated concerns about the possibility that the sector is heading towards a new real estate bubble.

The Director General of the Institute of Business Practice (IPE), José Antonio Pérez, said that, for the time being, the growth is “sustainable”, although he warned that the lack of buildable land on the Costa del Sol to meet the current demand from property developers and investors will limit this trend and may lead to a disproportionate rise in prices in some enclaves. Pérez attributes the lack of supply to “restrictions” imposed by the general urban planning orders in certain municipalities and the slow pace of urban planning procedures. (…).

Tinsa’s report also reveals that the average mortgage granted to Malagan households amounts to €126,815, the seventh most expensive in the country, with a monthly instalment of €592. The percentage of household income spent on paying the first year of a mortgage is 27.6%, almost eight points above the national average (19.9%). The appraisal company highlights that this statistic makes Málaga the province where families spend the highest percentage of their income on mortgage repayments, above the Balearic Islands and Barcelona (21%).

Málaga also leads the list of provinces with the highest number of house sales closed in the last four months, with respect to the size of its housing stock: 32.1 for every 1,000 homes. It was followed by Alicante and the Balearic Islands, which also have “a clear tourist component”, said the report. The appraisal company reminds its readers that the province is home to “a large number of high-end homes” aimed primarily at foreign buyers, which put upward pressure on average house prices.

By contrast, the IPE considers that it is “a mistake” to draw conclusions at the provincial level “because you cannot compare the situation in Villanueva del Trabuco, for example, with that of Marbella”. The institute, which specialises in the real estate sector, highlighted the sea fronts and golden triangle formed by Marbella, Estepona and Benahavís as the areas where demand for residential land is highest, as well as the capital, where Limonar and Valle del Guadalhorce are positioning themselves as the new enclaves for future urban development.

House sales

The Real Estate Pulsometer compiled by IPE confirms that Málaga is seeing one of the strongest recoveries in the sector, together with Madrid, Barcelona and the Balearic Islands. Investors, savers, funds and individuals comprise current demand, which caused house sales to grow by 6% last year; and a similar rise is forecast this year. Currently, half of all purchases are paid for in cash and the other half are financed through mortgages (…).

Original story: Diario Sur (by Alberto Gómez)

Translation: Carmel Drake

House Prices Forecast To Rise By 5% In 2017

6 June 2017 – Expansión

Growth / The sharp fall in house prices during the crisis years, combined with the pent-up demand, the reactivation of mortgage lending and the recovery of the Spanish economy means that property developers, appraisal companies, real estate companies, funds and consultants alike are all predicting fresh rises in house prices this year. Nevertheless, the professionals stress that the growth in prices will vary by area, with Madrid and Barcelona leading the recovery.

In 2016, house prices rose by 4.7% in Spain on average, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). That growth rate was the highest since the burst of the real estate bubble, a decade ago. And the experts believe that that figure will not only be repeated in 2017, it will actually be bettered. “According to CBRE’s Trend Barometer which reflects the views of the 100 most senior directors in the real estate sector, one out of every two surveyed believe that house prices will grow by between 3% and 6% in 2017 at the national level, whereas only 21% shared that optimism in 2016. It is the first time since the start of the crisis that the experts are forecasting a general rise in house prices in Spain”, explained Adolfo Ramírez Escudero, President, CBRE Spain. (…).

According to the majority of the experts, the increase will amount to around 5% this year…(…).

Although all of the experts are optimistic about the overall trend in prices, several are quick to point out that this increase will vary by region. “The recovery in prices is proving selective and heterogeneous. Although prices are soaring in certain places, they have still not bottomed out in other markets”, said Pedro Soria, at Tinsa.

“Salaries have not risen to a level that makes us think that prices are going to soar, although there are some exceptions in specific areas of the large regional capitals where we have detected strong demand”, said David Martínez, CEO at Aedas Homes.

By area, Madrid and Barcelona account for the best forecasts in terms of price rises. (…).

Similarly, in addition to the two major cities, the positive outlook is starting to spread to new areas. “Prices are on the rise primarily in the major capitals and on the islands”, said Sandra Daza, at Gesvalt.

The improvements in the macroeconomic variables mean that the good feelings about the housing market this year are also expected to have an impact over the coming years. “House prices are going to continue to rise over the next few years. This year, we expect to see an average rise of around 5%, but the shortage of buildable land in those areas where demand exists means that we can expect to see higher rates of growth in the future”, said Javier de Oro, at Aliseda, the real estate arm of Banco Popular.

In this sense, and despite the price rises that have been seen in recent quarters, the experts point out that we are still a long way from the figures seen before the burst of the bubble. “We are entering a period of growth, which may last three or four years. It is true that there are cycles, but I don’t think that we’ll ever see the price decreases of the past again”, said Juan Antonio Gómez-Pintado, President of the property developer Vía Célere and of the sector organisations Asprima and APCE. (…).

Whilst in the case of new homes, the upward trend in prices seems clear, in the case of second-hand properties, a recovery is also being seen but at a slower pace. “So far this year, our real estate index has been registering very slight YoY decreases, of just a few tenths of a percentage point, which shows us that second-hand house prices in Spain are stabilising”, said Beatriz Toribio, Head of Research at Fotocasa. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Rocío Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Gov’t Says RE Recovery Is More Intense Than Expected

30 May 2017 – El Mundo

The Secretary of State for Budgets and Expenditure, Alberto Nadal, has highlighted that the growth of the economy in Spain is being favoured not only by the country’s exports, but also by the recovery of the construction and real estate sectors, which is proving to be much more intense than the Government had expected.

Those were the declarations made by the Secretary of State during the presentation of Inmonext 17, an event organised by Idealista in the context of Madrid’s International Real Estate Fair (SIMA) 2017, where he noted that GDP growth this year is set to exceed the official forecast of 2.7%.

During his speech, Nadal emphasised that this increase in growth is being supported by exports, which will continue to be very strong and by the recovery of the construction and real estate sectors. “The coffers don’t lie, people don’t pay taxes if they don’t have any cash”, he added.

In this sense, he said that the real estate sector is going to play a fundamental role in the growth of Spain and he reminded his audience that the sector was oversized during the years prior to the crisis and that real demand for housing was not well founded because prices were growing and the volume of credit exceeded the borrowing capacity of families. “Economic growth was unbalanced and was heavily concentrated in the real estate sector”, he said.

In his opinion, a reasonable cruising speed would be the creation of 50,000 homes per year and he added that the recovery is reaching the real estate sector later than other markets, perhaps because it was oversized before. For this reason, he said that the logical thing would be for the sector to operate at a reasonable average, leaving behind the extremes seen before the crisis and over the last few years.

Nadal said that the data shows that there is not a bubble now and he emphasised that the outlook of the Spanish real estate sector depends on the faith that Spaniards have in the future, especially in their jobs and salaries.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Hispania Plans To Sell Its Offices For €520M+ Before Year End

29 May 2017 – Cinco Días

Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios has started the process to sell off its portfolio of offices, according to a statement made on Thursday by Cristina García-Peri (pictured above), the Socimi’s CEO, speaking at the real estate investment forum, which is being held in conjunction with the SIMA housing fair in Madrid.

“Although we have until 2020, we have accelerated the sale of our offices. Now is the right time”, said García-Peri, who plans to divest these assets before the end of the year. The idea is that the Socimi, which is managed by the Azora group and whose largest shareholder is a fund owned by George Soros, will sell the office portfolio as a whole, with the exception of a few individual transactions, such as Uría Menéndez’s new headquarters in Madrid.

Hispania’s CEO said that overseas investors are the main potential candidates, but she did not rule out Spanish Socimis. “There are lots of buyers. International investors are still interested in Spanish real estate”, she said in a statement. In terms of the sales price, the Socimi hopes to exceed the portfolio’s current valuation, which stands at €520 million, according to the company’s most recent presentation.

This Socimi is undergoing a complete transformation, given that it is now specialising in hotel ownership and by 2020, when it is planning its own liquidation, it hopes to have become a hotel-only vehicle, so that it may be sold to another company. “What we will be looking for primarily is a change in control of the company”, said García-Peri, to allow those shareholders who wish to exit the share capital to do so.

In addition, the company is immersed in a transaction involving its residential assets, which involves selling the properties individually in the retail market.

Original story: Cinco Días (by Alfonso Simón Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Gesvalt: Madrid’s Logistics Sector Grows For First Time Since 2009

13 February 2017 – Observatorio Inmobiliario

The leasing of industrial warehouses in the Community of Madrid increased in 2016 for the first time in eight years following a recession in the logistics sector. The evolution of the market in the region last year confirms the positive forecasts that experts predicted at the end of 2015. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that this increase in the volume of space leased in the logistics sector was mild and gradual over the whole period, according to the conclusions of the latest report from Gesvalt, a consultancy and asset valuation company.

Sandra Daza, Director General at Gesvalt, considers that “these are noteworthy figures because they are evidence of the reactivation of the sector, which will also undergo more changes over the next few years, due to the reactivation of consumption and the evolution of e-commerce”. In this sense, Daza forecasts that “we are going to see an increase in the supply of these types of industrial warehouses, especially in Madrid and Barcelona”.

In the province of Madrid, which has 43 industrial estate areas, the distribution of industrial space is divided as follows: 32% production, 22% storage, 12% logistics, 7% commercial and 27% business parks.

The extractive and manufacturing sectors are giving way to the drive from the storage and distribution sectors. Large firms dedicated to this activity are moving into the region and are demanding large surface areas, close to large populations and with access to fast roads. Nowadays, these types of assets are the star product in the logistics and industrial sector in Madrid. By contrast, investors have lost interest in smaller warehouses on old industrial estates and the few operations that are taking place are being closed at almost cost prices.

In 2017, the aforementioned change is expected to be consolidated, with slight increases in rents. Returns could reach 7% and a minimal increase is expected in the volume of operations.

Almost 50% of the investors that are operating in the industrial market in the region are domestic and international institutions, whilst the other half comprise Socimis and family offices. By contrast, large financial institutions are the main vendors of these types of products.

80% of the operations in the Community of Madrid in 2016 were located in the Corredor del Henares, although the volume of surface area leased was still low (150,000 m2).

The interest in the market for rental over sale, the scarcity of land in really attractive areas and the relative low rates of return (6%) confirm that although the recovery of the sector is underway, it still has a long way to go.

Within the Community of Madrid, the municipality with the greatest volume of industrial activity is Fuenlabrada, which accounts for 25% of the total and is home to 21 industrial estate areas.

The large Mercamadrid industrial estate, located in the industrial area of Villa de Vallecas, is the largest in the Community of Madrid (1,8000,000/2,000,0000 m²), followed by the Vicálvaro industrial estate, which is as big as the Cobo Calleja de Fuenlabrada estate (1,750,000/1,800,000 m²). (…).

Original story: Observatorio Inmobiliario

Translation: Carmel Drake

Some House Prices Have Risen By 20% Since Q1 2015

10 October 2016 – Expansión

Money is seeking refuge and returns in the real estate sector once again. Real estate assets, which experienced such significant gains at the beginning of the century and which, shortly thereafter, generated so many problems, represent one of the main options for investors in Spain once again. The significant instability that we are seeing in the stock markets; the absence of attractive investment products from the banks; and the many doubts hanging over the global economic recovery, mean that many investors are now backing the security being offered by the, until recently, maligned Spanish real estate sector.

“In the current economic climate, characterised by market volatility and negative interest rates, the real estate sector, and in particular, the luxury residential segment, is becoming the safest choice for investors”, explained sources at the real estate consultancy firm Knight Frank.

These data are corroborated by the evolution of prices in some of the main areas of Madrid and Barcelona. According to data published by the appraisal company Tinsa, since Q1 2015, which is when it is considered that prices in the sector hit rock bottom, prices in the centre of Madrid have soared by more than 10%. Specifically, in the neighbourhood of Salamanca, the increase has been almost as high and the price per sqm now amounts to €3,500/sqm. The increase in the Cataluñan capital is even more pronounced and in the Ensanche de Barcelona area, prices have risen by 20%, from €2,717/sqm at the beginning of 2015 to more than €3,200 at the end of Q3 2016. Moreover, prices rose by more than 15% in the Gracia neighbourhood and by 13% in Sarriá.

This situation is the result of the economic recovery in the country, but also the apepal that the real estate sector has for overseas investors. According to Knight Frank, Latin America and European investors are being very active in their purchases, given that prices fall well below those seen in cities such as Paris, London and Milan.

This good image of the Spanish property sector overseas is going to be maintained over the next few years. That is according to Deutsche Asset Management, which reaffirmed its advice to “buy” in the real estate sector in Spain in a recent report.

“We expect significant returns to be generated (…), well above those being offered in other European markets”, it said.

The only problem that both the manager of Deutsche Bank and Knight Frank are concerned by is political instability. In fact, the real estate consultancy said that “we cannot avoid the situation of political uncertainty that Spain has been living for the last 10 months (…). Activity has been good in the sector but with a stable Government, the growth rate could have been exponential”.

Nevertheless, this obstacle is not likely to outweigh the attractive returns being offered by the sector. According to forecasts from the consultancy CBRE, real estate investment between now and the end of the year is expected to amount to almost €3,000 million, taking the total for the year to between €8,500 million and €9,000 million.

Original story: Expansión (by Daniel Viaña and César Urrutia)

Translation: Carmel Drake

IPE: House Prices Will Rise By 5% In 2016

18 July 2016 – Expansión

The recovery of the real estate sector began in 2015, and we are now (in 2016) seeing the consolidation of the end of the crisis, with increases in: property prices, the number of transactions, the number of housing permits and rentals, spreading across the whole country.

After seven years of crisis in the sector, the improvement in 2015 might have seemed like a mirage to many, a temporary bounce or a small sign of stabilisation. Nevertheless, the figures for 2016 are showing that the outlook is strong and that the housing market still has great potential, which means that we no longer need to talk about “blossom in the greenhouse” or an incipient recovery, but rather future growth.

The scenario outlined by the Institute of Business Practice (IPE) in its next edition of the Real Estate Pulsometer, shows a very favourable outlook for the sector, in which average transaction prices will grow by 5% and the volume of sales will increase by 13.9% with respect to 2015. All of this will act as a driver for the rest of the sector, which is also being boosted by construction activity. Thus, the number of projects launched will increase by 9.3% and the number of permits for new homes will grow by 13.9%. It seems that the sun is already shining on all of the major indicators in the real estate market.

In addition to this data, we are seeing a gradual and increasingly rapid recovery of the rental market; a strong increase in the yield on homes; and a clear recovery in the non-residential sector, which set record breaking figures in 2015 and is following a positive trend so far in 2016, with fewer operations, but higher prices.

The indicator that best indicates the recovery of the real estate sector is the number of transactions, which grew by 11.1% in 2015 and which is forecast to rise by 13.9% this year. In addition, the increase in sales does not depend only on purchases by those with significant savings…, which was the main driver of the market in years gone by, but in very specific areas.

More mortgages

During 2016, the opening up of the bank loan tap will drive mortgages up by 10.5% (compared with a miniscule increase of 0.6% in 2015), which will allow buyers to return to the market in search of primary residences, even if they only have small amounts of savings. This means that the improvement in the market will extend to other provinces and neighbourhoods that have not featured on the radars of investors in the past.

In addition, this recovery will also affect plots of land, as well as garages, offices and storerooms, to reach 787,839 operations (up by 10.2%) compared with last year. In total, more than half of these transactions are expected to involve homes.

Based on the data to May, the highest increases in house sales are being seen in the Balearic Islands (where purchases grew by 38.6% between January and May, with respect to the same period last year), followed by Murcia (28.9%), País Vasco (24.3%) and Extremadura (21.7%), according to INE. Nevertheless, the Institute of Business Practice forecasts that, during the year, Madrid, Cataluña, Valencia and the Canary Islands will also see some of the most significant increases. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Pablo Cerezal)

Translation: Carmel Drake

CBRE: Real Estate Investment Down By 24% In H1 2016

5 July 2016 – Expansión

The real estate sector is still a preferred investment destination, after a record and unusually active 2015, but investors are now putting the brakes on, which has caused investment volumes to decrease during the first half of 2016.

Between January and June 2016, real estate investment amounted to €3,921 million, 24% less than during the same period in 2015 when, excluding the purchase of Testa, investment stood at €5,200 million. This difference is even more marked if we include Merlin’s purchase of Testa, in which case, investment during the first six months of last year soar to €8,400 million, according to data from the real estate consultancy CBRE.

The decrease in investment reflects a reduction in the supply of real estate properties, the uncertainty at the political and economic level and a normalisation of the quality-price relationship of assets. Despite everything, the level of investment to June was 40% higher than the average recorded over the last ten years.

By sector, the most affected has been the office segment, with a reduction in terms of investment of 48%, to €871 million. Meanwhile, investment in retail and hotel assets fell by 30% and 48%, to €1,341 million and €543 million, respectively. Meanwhile, investment in logistics assets doubled to reach €462 million; that segment now accounts for 12% of total investment.

In terms of type of investor, the Socimis, which accounted for 42% of all real estate investments made last year, have lowered their profiles to participate in just 10% of real estate transactions during H1 2016. By contrast, international funds now account for 68% of total investment. In terms of the geographical origin of the overseas capital, the USA leads the way, with 39% of total investment, followed by Australia (8%) and the UK (6%).

The most important operations during the first six months of the year included: Blackstone’s purchase of 4,500 rental homes for €540 million; Invesco’s acquisition of a portfolio of Gonuri hypermarkets for €358 million; and the purchase of the car park manager Parkia by the Australian fund First State for €300 million. In the office sector, the largest deal was GreenOak’s purchase of the Las Mercedes business park in Madrid for €128.5 million.

Optimistic outlook

Looking ahead towards H2 2016, the President of CBRE España, Adolfo Ramírez-Escuero, acknowledges that the forecasts made at the beginning of the year, that investment would amount to between €8,500 million and €9,000 million in 2016, seem “somewhat optimistic” six months on.

Ramírez-Escudero explained that the result of the UK’s referendum has taken the European real estate sector by surprise. “It is likely that investors will wait until the rules that are going to frame the relationship between the UK and the EU have been defined more clearly, as well as to find out how they will influence the economy on both sides”, said the President of CBRE España regarding Brexit.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake