BBVA Predicts House Building Boom In 2016

5 January 2016 – El Economista

BBVA predicts that there will be a “boost” in house construction over the “next few quarters”, in light of the favourable development, at the end of last year, of indicators such as cement consumption, employment in the sector and transactions involving land.

Those are the explanations provided by BBVA in its latest “Real Estate Flash Report for Spain”, which states that the 13.2% reduction in new build construction permits in October, following an otherwise positive 2015, “may well be temporary”.

On the other hand, the financial institution says that “the other variables reflect that construction activity is likely to continue to grow, although from very low levels”.

Firstly, the report argues that cement consumption recovered in October after decreasing in September; and that the number of employees registered for Social Security purposes in the construction sector also experienced “robust” growth during the months of October and November, putting an end to the lethargy of the previous four months.

In the same way, the financial institution says that business owners’ opinions regarding the future evolution of the residential sector improved in November as a result of an increase in order books.

Finally, the report points out that the land transaction data relating to the third quarter reflects a 72.3% YoY increase in terms of the surface area of land sold.

In parallel to the improvement in property developer activity, BBVA highlighted that demand for housing is continuing to grow thanks to the improvement in the economy. Moreover, it forecasts that, if the current trend in terms of house purchases remains stable, almost 400,000 homes will have been sold in 2015.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

BBVA: Positive Outlook For Housing Market In 2015

3 March 2015 – El Economista

The positive outlook for economic growth, better employment figures and favourable financing conditions will drive further increases in house sales in 2015, which will be accompanied by a “moderate” increase in prices and a further increase in construction activity.

That is according to the latest “Real Estate in Spain – Flash Report”, prepared by the Research Department at BBVA, which also states that “2014 could be classified as the year in which the recovery of the real estate sector began”.

Sales recovery

The entity points out that, according to the General Council of Notaries (Consejo General del Notariado), demand for properties showed signs of recovery month after month during 2014, to close the year with 364,000 homes sold, up 19.1% compared with 2013. “That was the first increase since 2007 and it reflects the greater level of activity in the mortgage market”, says BBVA.

At the same time, data from the Ministry of Development shows that there was a 0.5% increase in house prices last year, again, the first increase since the start of the crisis.

This recovery in the key real estate parameters led to a 1.7% increase in the number of construction permits for new homes in 2014, which the financial institution notes “breaks the trend of seven consecutive years of decreases and makes 2014 the turning point in terms of construction activity”.

The report forecasts that this positive trend will really take hold in 2015. BBVA Research expects the Spanish economy to grow by 2.7% this year, with the creation of around half a million jobs and relatively stable interest rates.

“All of these factors indicate that there will be a further increase in house sales and that prices and construction activity will respond with further growth”, says the bank.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

BBVA: Declining Interest Rates Boosted Demand For Housing In 2014

3 January 2015 – El Mundo

The financial institution has noted a “clear change in the trend” of mortgage financing and concludes that the expectations of business-owners in the residential construction sector “have improved slightly”.

BBVA Research, the research arm of the financial entity, estimates that 350,000 homes were sold in 2014. It explains that this improvement in the number of transactions was due to the evolution of employment and a moderation in interest rates.

In its latest “Flash Real Estate Spain” report, the bank said that “the evolution of employment, which grew by more than expected, and a further decline in interest rates, continued to favour the recovery in the underlying demand” for housing.

More mortgage lending activity.

According to BBVA, “the increase in the number of sales was also reflected in terms of mortgage financing”, as evidenced by the evolution of loans granted for the purchase of new homes during the month of November, which grew at a year on year rate of 34%.

During the first eleven months of 2014, the number of loans granted for house purchases increased by 45% in year on year terms, “which suggests a clear change in the mortgage financing trend”, said the research service. Data for the third quarter 2014 shows that gross household incomes rose for the second consecutive quarter.

Furthermore, the expectations of business-owners in the residential construction segment “have improved slightly”. Thus, in December 2014, the climate index for the residential construction sector recovered the ground lost in the previous month and ended the year 17.2 points higher than at the end of 2013, in year on year terms. All of the components of this index increased, above all those relating to employment and production.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake