8 January 2019 – Expansión
The normalisation of the market in Madrid and Barcelona will make way for high growth in provincial capitals such as Valencia, Málaga, Palma and Sevilla. Rents will rise by more than 10% in the large capitals and sales could exceed 600,000 units in total.
Housing is going to enter a new phase of the cycle in 2019. After a year of expansion in 2018, with growth brushing the records seen before the crisis, this is going to be the year of consolidation, but also of awakening in the medium-sized capitals.
A panel of experts consulted by Expansión foresees an average price rise of more than 5%, and an increase in the sales volume of between 10% and 13%, which means that house sales may exceed the threshold of 600,000 units. That would make 2019 the seventh consecutive year of improvement in the residential sector after prices decreased by more than 30% during the years of the crisis.
Madrid and Barcelona, which inaugurated the recovery in 2016 and which have been leading the housing charge until now, are going to begin a process of normalisation. The experts agree that moderation will be felt in those two markets in particular. In the case of Barcelona, the political uncertainty, control measures from the Town Hall and price levels reached could lead to corrections in some districts where prices have already peaked.
This year, it will be the new capitals that will lead the growth of the market. The last quarter of 2018 already closed with three revelations: Valencia, Málaga and Tarragona led the increase in sales prices, with rises of more than 15%, according to data from Tinsa. In 2019, the experts are placing their focus on those and other cities, such as Sevilla Alicante, Palma, Bilbao, Murcia and Zaragoza. In the large capitals, price increases will exceed 10%.
The rise in sales prices versus the stagnation of wages will continue to cause demand to increase in the rental market, which will rise by around 7%, and by more than two-digits in the large cities, where price tensions are even greater. The volatility of the financial markets will continue to make rental a very attractive investment option. Nevertheless, the experts warn that the uncertainty regarding the measures approved by the Government in terms of the rental segment could put future investments at risk.
Whether the sector tends towards a plateau or rather moderate growth will depend on factors such as the evolution of the economy, policy changes by the ECB and the measures that the Government decides to introduce.
Original story: Expansión (by Inma Benedito)
Translation: Carmel Drake