Tag: discounts

Bankinter: House Prices To Grow By 1.5% In 2015 And By 5% In 2016

18 February 2015 – El Mundo

Bankinter expects the volume of house sales to reach 450,000 by 2016.

The large ‘stock’ (in poor locations) will not prevent the recovery in construction.

GDP is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2015, which will significantly boost the real estate market.

Demand for housing in Spain will increase again in 2015, with a 15% increase in the volume of transactions, which will drive up property prices by 1.5% on average and by a further 5% in 2016, according to the half-yearly report about the real estate market in Spain, prepared by Bankinter.

The financial institution states that, given the heterogeneity of the Spanish real estate market, prices in most provincial capitals and in the towns furthest from the large cities will remain stable and may even decrease slightly over the next few months. Meanwhile, in the most sought after areas (prime) of the main cities and in the best locations of tourist centres, prices will increase and may even grow by more than 3% in 2015 and by 5% in 2016.

Bankinter explained that this improvement in the outlook for the real estate sector is due to the economic recovery – GDP is forecast to grow by 2.2% this year – which will lead to a better climate for employment, increased confidence and greater access to finance. However, the financial institution warns that it does not expect the recovery of the sector to be fast or sufficiently profound to generate a return to the pre-crisis position, either in terms of transaction volumes or price increases.

The report states that unemployment will remain above 20% over the next two years; the financial effort required to make a purchase will continue to be high due to the decrease in disposable household wealth; the size of the Spanish population will decline (with the consequent negative knock-on effect on demand); and homes foreclosed by banks will continue to come onto the market with big discounts.

Recovery in new build sales

In terms of demand, the report expects an increase to 400,000 homes in 2015 and to 450,000 homes in 2016. A significant part of this growth will be driven by a recovery in the sale of new homes and by the maintenance of demand from foreigners. This increase will cause (new) house sales to break through the psychological barrier of 100,000 transactions in 2016.

In the case of supply, Bankinter points out that Spain still has a stock of between 650,000 and 700,000 empty homes, based on data published by the Ministry of Development and Sareb. Nevertheless, it considers that “this will not prevent the reactivation of the construction sector, given the mismatch between the location of the surplus (stock and demand)”.

In this sense, it warns that around 100,000 homes may never be sold unless huge discounts are applied to compensate for their challenging locations. Whereas, in the prime areas, there is a shortage of supply, according to the entity, which will be covered through renovations and new developments over the next few quarters.

Original story: El Mundo

Translation: Carmel Drake

Bankia Offers More Than 3,500 Homes With Discounts Of Up To 50%

12 February 2015 – El Economista

Bankia has put more than 3,500 homes up for sale across Spain with discounts “in many cases” of up to 50%, which means that 80% of the homes to be offered by the entity until the end of March have an average price of less than €80,000.

The homes, all of which are second hand, are located in urban and coastal areas, ranging from large capital cities, to metropolitan areas and small towns, said Bankia in a statement.

Valencia is the autonomous region with the largest supply of housing, with more than 1,300 properties for sale, followed by Cataluña, with 800; more than 300 properties will be available in Castilla-La Mancha; 200 in the Canary Islands; and more than a hundred in other autonomous regions such as Madrid, Andalucía and Murcia.

Original story: El Economista

Translation: Carmel Drake

Big Banks Record Losses Of €3,600m, Hit By Real Estate

9 February 2015 – El Mundo

The Ibex-listed financial institutions have doubtful balances and a portfolio of foreclosed homes amounting to €120,000 million.

During 2014, they sold more than 20,000 properties for a combined value of €11,700 million.

It will take Spanish banks two more years to “digest” the property binge that they enjoyed during the years of economic boom. The annual accounts of the listed entities – with the exception of Bankia, which has not yet published its results – show that, despite the recovery in the banking sector, the real estate sector continues to be a heavy burden – it generated losses of more than €3,600 million in 2014.

The indicators show signs of optimism, including the decrease in the default rate – which currently stands at 12.75% for the sector as a whole – and the decrease in doubtful assets by more than €20,000 million over the last year. However, the banks recognise that their exposure to the real estate sector will continue to be a hindrance throughout 2015 and 2016 at least, two years during which the market is expected to absorb most of the foreclosed assets (amounting to €60,000 million) accumulated by Santander, BBVA, Caixabank, Bankia, Sabadell, Popular and Bankinter.

The gross credit exposure to developers of these seven entities (all of which are listed on the Ibex) amounted to €103,000 million at the end of last year, although it should be noted that the figure for Bankia relates to the third quarter 2014.

From this quantity, just over €61,000 million is classified as doubtful (i.e. a non-payment of some kind has been recocorded) or sub-standard (credits that are currently being paid, but which are expected to go into arrears). According to the entities, this figure is lower than last year, due to the refinancings, recoveries and maturities that have taken place over the last year. But it is still a volume that requires a significant provision balance to cover the potential losses. Overall, the seven banks analysed recorded a total coverage against doubtful debts of €38,900 million at the end of 2014.

Last year was the first year in which the entities significantly reduced their provision coverage, following five years of crisis. “The results from the real estate sector clearly show the less negative impact that has resulted from the clean up of loans to developers and foreclosed real estate assets” says BBVA, a bank that recorded losses of €876 million in this area. Despite the size of the figure, it is 30% smaller than the €1,252 million losses recorded by the entity a year earlier.

Caixabank is the entity whose results have been hardest hit by the activity in the real estate sector. On 30 January, its CEO, Gonzalo Cortázar, predicted that the housing burden would have an impact on its financial results in 2015 and 2016 that this impact would “still be significant, although the digestion will be prolonged on a decreasing scale.

Santander has managed to reduce its loans to developers by 34% in the last year and has increased its coverage to 54%, but its annual results are still negative, with the entity led by Ana Botín recording a loss of €583 million.

Sabadell’s losses were even greater – €999 million and it has a gross exposure to the real estate market of €26,958 million, the highest in the sector, taking into account the foreclosed assets of CAM.

Fewer discounts

Bankia, Bankinter and Popular do not publish results about their respective real estate businesses. Popular is the bank that holds the greatest number of problem assets (doubtful and foreclosed assets) in proportion to the size of its balance sheet. It has loans amounting to €13,061 million in this category, with a coverage level of 44%. But the figures that really jump out are the volume of foreclosed homes, developments and land (€14,169 million) held by the entity, which closed the year with sales of €1,503 million.

Last year, some entities sold some of their house sale divisions. Altogether, these seven entities offloaded more than 20,000 units for a total value of €11,700 million. Sabadell was the most active bank in terms of house sales, generating €2,744 million. Various sources agree that 2014 was characterised by a reduction in the discounts applied, which in some cases, meant that the income received was actually higher than the recorded book value.

Some entities, such as BBVA and Sabadell, have an Asset Protection Scheme (Esquema de Protección de Activos or EPA) in place, following their acquisitions of Unnim and CAM, respectively. This insurance allows them to cover any additional deteriorations on their balance sheets over the next few years, through the Frob. Sabadell has recognised that it may start to use this financial cushion this year.

With the exception of Bankia, none of these companies has transferred assets to Sareb, the bad bank that absorbed loans to developers, and foreclosed homes and land, from entities that received public aid in the rescue of 2012.

Original story: El Mundo (by Javier G. Gallego)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Fitch: Recovery In Housing Market, But No Rapid Rise In Prices Or Mortgages

15 January 2015 – Expansión

The ratings agency Fitch believes that the downward trend in house prices in Spain is coming to an end after seven years, but that unemployment and the real estate “stock” mean that there will not be a rapid recovery in prices.

Fitch explains that the stabilisation of house prices and of the mortgage market is a reflection of the macroeconomic recovery in Spain and the growing willingness of banks to lend to the most creditworthy customers.

However, despite the efforts made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the “cheap money” that has been made available to Spanish banks, Fitch does not expect there to be a rapid recovery in the number of mortgages loaned, Efe reported.

According to the ratings agency, the depreciation in the value of foreclosed and sold homes has amounted to 70% in certain cases with respect to their initial valuations.

Similarly, the price range in which banks are selling foreclosed homes has also declined considerably, says Fitch.

Fitch’s analysis suggests that the discounts on forced sales are higher in the coastal regions, such as Andalucía and Cataluña, and that further price cuts are required to find buyers for foreclosed properties and those linked to mortgages signed before the financial crisis.

Nevertheless, although mortgage lending is returning, the high level of unemployment and the housing surplus mean that we should not expect to see a rapid rise in prices.

Furthermore, Fitch points out that 768,000 homes built between 2002 and 2011 remain empty, and that the real estate sector has now bottomed out in terms of prices, as indicated by data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which indicate price increases of 0.8% in the second quarter of the year, the first increase since the outbreak of the crisis.

Original story: Expansión

Translation: Carmel Drake