Tag: consolidation

Coworkings: the New King of the Real Estate Sector

15 February 2019 – Eje Prime

Millennials, flexibility, start ups…All of the socio-demographic trends are inevitably leading to one common place: coworking offices. Flexible workspaces have become the great promise of the real estate sector but their largest operator, IWG, generates just 15% of its revenues from them and WeWork is multiplying its losses year after year. What risks does the model have? Can it withstand a recession without the guarantee of the traditional five years of mandatory occupancy? And what if Amazon and Facebook, its tenants of today, end up becoming its main competition?

In 2017 alone, the total volume of flexible workspace in the twenty largest markets around the world grew by 30%, equivalent to 1 million m2. Since 2014, the sector has doubled, and in cities such as London, they account for 20% of the office space leased, according to a report from JLL. In Barcelona, that figure already amounts to 12%.

The consultancy firm forecasts that the European stock will grow by between 25% and 30% per annum on average over the next five years and will account for 30% of some corporate real estate portfolios by 2030. But those predictions hide the major challenges that are threatening the great promise of the sector.

One of the main challenges facing the model is that the operator is tied to a given property for at least five years, like in the case of a traditional office, but its tenants have contracts that last for months or even hours. When the next crisis hits, what guarantees does the owner have that the operator will be able to continue paying the rent?

“On paper, that does seem like a risk, but the reality is that the coworking phenomenon was launched during the crisis”, explain sources at Savills Aguirre Newman. All sectors suffer when there is a recession, but traditional offices are hit harder because whoever cannot bear those costs can afford a coworking space”, argue the sources at the consultancy firm.

Another of the risk factors is that coworking offices have capitalised on the lack of available office space in the centre of cities and also, on the shortage of appropriate spaces for the new ways of working within traditional companies (…).

“The players driving the sector are multi-nationals that are looking for appropriate spaces for their innovation teams or for project-based work”, says Manel de Bes, Director of the Office department at Forcadell.

But, what will happen when the offices of these large companies have adapted to the new scenario? “At the moment, most companies are in the experimental phase; if they consider that the trials do not meet their needs, they will be able to return to more conventional models”, explains JLL’s report (…).

From rock star to conservative player

Within the coworking phenomenon, the rock star is WeWork. The New York-based company, which became the largest lessee of offices in its home city last year, is worth USD 20 billion, but it recorded losses of USD 723 million in the first half of last year.

“Its model is based on taking over the best buildings, in the most prime areas and then competing with other operators on price: it is not sustainable”, argues a competitor in the sector. “Sooner or later, they will have to raise their prices”, he assures.

IWG’s model is more conservative. That firm has an umbrella of five brands and thirty years of history. “We have gone through three or four cycles and we cover our backs: first, by diversifying in terms of the type of tenant to minimise risk. We also ask the owners to invest and we do not select the best buildings or at any price”, said Philippe Jiménez, head of the group in the Spanish market (…).

De Bes from Forcadell forecasts that “Over the medium term, just four or five operators will remain: those that lease 200 m2 or 400 m2 in secondary areas will exit the market”. In fact, the market is already becoming more concentrated: since 2015, the five most important operators have accounted for 50% of all of the new flexible workspace in Europe (…).

Original story: Eje Prime (by Iria P. Gestal)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Habitat will Invest €500M in Land Purchases by 2021

23 October 2018 – Expansión

Habitat, the property developer controlled by the investment fund Bain Capital, is planning to invest €500 million in land purchases between now and 2021.

The company, which has unveiled its business plan for the next few years, expects to hand over 2,000 homes per year from 2021 onwards. Currently, Habitat owns 800,000 m2 of land for the construction of 9,000 homes.

“Bain has provided sufficient capital to finance the purchase of land with own funds. There is no debt except for property developer loans”, explained Juan María Nin (pictured above), President of the real estate company.

To date, the firm has invested €70 million in the purchase of land and it is planning to invest an additional €50 million over the coming months with the aim of continuing its growth.

Brad Palmer, Managing Director and Head of Bain in Europe, said that following the entry of the fund, the company is “healthy and ready to grow”.

Palmer indicated that, for the time being, the fund is not thinking about an IPO, but rather is focusing on the purchase of land, constituting a good professional team and offering a high-quality product for its clients.

Similarly, he indicated that, in a market as fragmented as Spain, consolidation between real estate companies is possible, although it is too early to say what role Habitat will play in that process.

The CEO of Habitat, José Carlos Saz, indicated that although most of the portfolio is buildable land, the property developer is also opening the door to buying land under management.

Saz also said that the property developer plans to close the year with revenues of almost €100 million and a positive gross operating profit (EBITDA).

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Altamira Hires Borja Ortega from JLL to Lead its International Expansion

11 April 2018 – El Confidencial

Altamira is stepping on the accelerator to become the leading servicer in the south of Europe and, to this end, has hired a heavyweight from JLL as the Head of International Expansion and member of its Executive Committee. Borja Ortega (pictured below), Director of Capital Markets at the real estate consultancy is going to join the company controlled by Apollo in May.

The first major challenge that he will have to handle is Altamira’s entry into Italy, a market that the company led by Julián Navarro has been analysing for a while to consolidate its position in the Mediterranean region, having already made its debut in Portugal and Cyprus.

The servicer entered Portugal a year ago by purchasing Oitante, a company created to manage Banif’s assets, a move that allowed it to take over the management of more than €1.5 billion in assets.

In Cyprus, last summer, the servicer created a joint venture with Cooperative Central Bank (CCB), the second largest bank in the country with €7.6 billion in financial and real estate assets, in which Altamira holds a 51% stake and which has been operational since the beginning of this year.

Heavyweight from JLL

Until now, as Head of Capital Markets, Borja Ortega has led the firm’s direct investment activities (the traditional business), its financial advisory practice (portfolios, debt, mergers and acquisitions) and its private wealth business.

Some of the most important operations that he has managed in recent times include the process to sell the Adequa office complex to Merlin and the sale of Edificio España, operations that helped his division to record growth of around 50% in the last two years.

Moreover, Ortega launched the private wealth division, which is one of the first to channel the arrival of wealthy Latin American investors in the Spanish real estate market, and he collaborated in the sale of €30 billion in toxic assets from Santander-Popular to Blackstone, an operation in which the fund was advised by JLL.

Following the arrival of the Socimis, which have now begun to consolidate in the market with the takeovers of Axiare by Colonial and of Hispania by Blackstone, and the boom in residential property development, with the stock market debuts of Neinor, Aedas and Metrovacesa, the next major movement in the sector is expected in the field of the servicers.

As we await possible mergers, for the time being, Haya Real Estate is the first firm in the sector to set its sights on the stock market, by engaging Rothschild, JP Morgan and Citi to coordinate its debut later this year. Meanwhile, Altamira has opted to create a large international platform before taking the next step, whilst Solvia has created its own property developer.

Anticipa, the servicer of Blackstone, has swallowed up Aliseda as part of the aforementioned operation involving the purchase of toxic assets from Santander, whilst Servihabitat has appointed a new CEO and it is expected that the complex balance of powers between CaixaBank and TPG will tip in one direction or the other within the next few months, as part of the recently launched process of consolidation in the sector.

Original story: El Confidencial (by Ruth Ugalde)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Criteria Negotiates with Torreal, ProA & KKR to Acquire 100% of Saba

9 April 2018 – Expansión

Criteria, the controlling shareholder of Saba, with a 51% stake, is holding advanced discussions with the minority shareholders of the parking lot group to become the sole shareholder of the company. The investment by La Caixa’s industrial holding company, which could take a decision within the next few weeks, would put an end to the current period of uncertainty that the company has been subject to since Torreal (20%), KKR (18.5%) and ProA (10.5%) agreed to sell their stakes (49%) in a coordinated way more than a year ago.

For Criteria, which declined to comment on the operation, the investment in Saba would represent its first major buy-side move since it sold 10% of Gas Natural-Fenosa to the fund GIP in 2016 for around €1.8 billion and ahead of its eventual exit this year from Abertis if the joint takeover bid by ACS and Atlantia proves successful. For its 18% share in the highway group, Criteria could receive more than €3 billion to use for new investments.

Saba’s valuation ranges in multiplies of between 12x and 14x its EBITDA, which amounted to €100 million in 2017. Taking this relationship as a reference, 100% of the parking lot group chaired by Salvador Alemany would be worth €1.4 billion, including the debt.

Saba’s minority shareholders have forced this outcome. According to the shareholders’ agreements, in May a drag along clause will be activated whereby any of the shareholders may force the sale of 100% of the company. KKR, ProA and Torreal notified La Caixa of their intention to look for a buyer. According to the sources consulted, Criteria has manifested its willingness to buy at the estimated prices.

For the funds, this is an acceptable solution – given the good relationship they have with the majority shareholder – which would also give continuity in terms of the management of the company. With 100% of Saba, Criteria could tackle the subsidiary’s growth strategy with greater freedom at a time when the parking lot sector is open to new corporate movements and company consolidation. Saba will hold its Annual General Shareholders Meeting on 9 May, which Criteria and the investment funds could use to materialise the operation with the configuration of a new Board of Directors if there is a change in the shareholding. The agenda for Saba’s meeting includes the appointment and ratification of directors.

Saba recorded turnover of €205 million in 2016, up by 7%. Its EBITDA, without taking into account the effect of divestments from its logistics parks, rose by 10% to €94 million, whilst its net profit remained at €4 million, which would have been €32 million if the aforementioned exceptional operation was taken into account. The firm’s net financial debt at the end of 2016 amounted to €357 million. Two-thirds of Saba’s business is generated in Spain.

Between 2011, when it broke away from Abertis, and 2016, the company led by Josep Martínez Vila invested €545 million to expand its business perimeter to include 195,000 spaces, although it also divested its logistics assets, with the aim of focusing purely on its parking lot activity. Following the operations of Aena, Adif and the Town Hall of Barcelona, the company has barely made any significant moves, despite expressing interest in its rivals such as Empark and Vincipark, amongst others.

Original story: Expansión (by C. Morán, M. Ponce de León & S. Saborit)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Axis: Spain’s Banks Will Divest At Least €40bn of Their Problem RE Assets This Year

30 March 2018 – El Mundo

Spain’s banks are still trying to lighten their balance sheets of the huge load left on them by the real estate crisis. Forecasts for this year indicate that they will manage to divest assets worth at least €40 billion including properties, foreclosed land and defaulted and non-performing loans.

Those are the estimates made by the consultancy firm Axis Corporate on the basis of operations that are currently being sounded out in the Spanish real estate sector. The figure includes transactions worth at least €9 billion by Sareb, sales of around €6 billion by Bankia and operations by CaixaBank and Banco Sabadell with a volume of close to €12 billion each. “To all of these operations, we have to add the retail operations that the servicers are currently undertaking”, explains José Masip, Real Estate Partner at Axis Corporate and coordinator of the Assets Under Management Observatory Report published recently by the company.

In 2017, sales of toxic assets linked to real estate exceeded €50 billion, “almost twice the €27.4 billion sold between 2012 and 2016”, says the report. Spanish entities are accelerating the clean up of this type of asset from their balance sheets to reduce their default rates and fulfil the European regulations that force entities to reduce the weight of non-performing assets to pre-crisis levels. Despite that and according to data from the consultancy firm JLL, the volume of non-performing assets with real estate collateral in the hands of the banks and Sareb amounts to around €200 billion: €80 billion in REOs (foreclosed assets) and €120 billion in NPLs (Non Performing Loans or doubtful credits).

Greater weight of funds

Both firms predict that the rate of sales seen last year will continue in 2018, above all due to the growing interest from international investment funds (…).

The main investment funds focused on the purchase of real estate assets in Spain are Bain Capital, Oaktree, EOS Spain, Apollo and Axactor, who are following in the footsteps of others such as Blackstone and Cerberus.

The latter two entities starred in the two most important operations of last year. In July, Santander sold a portfolio comprising 51% of the toxic property it had inherited following the purchase of Banco Popular to Blackstone in an operation worth €5.1 billion; meanwhile, in November, BBVA sold 80% of its real estate portfolio to Cerberus for around €4 billion. In a similar operation, also in 2017, Liberbank sold part of its toxic portfolio to the funds Bain and Oceanwood for €602 million.

The transactions were structured through the creation of joint ventures in all cases, in which the bank held a minority percentage of the company or servicer and the acquiring fund took over the bulk of the management. According to Emilio Portes, Director of the Portfolio Business at JLL for Southern Europe, “the structure offers entities a stake in the profits of the assets with upside potential at the same time as cleaning up their balance sheets and slightly improving their capital ratios. Similarly, it offers buyers more advantageous prices without limiting their strategy and management capacity”.

Indeed, in Axis’s opinion, those servicers are expected to be some of the main players in the market over the short and medium term. According to data from the consultancy firm, more than 80% of the assets under management are in the hands of five of them: Altamira (linked to Santander), Servihabitat (CaixaBank), Haya/Anida (controlled by Cerberus after the operation with BBVA), Aliseda/Anticipa (Blackstone) and Solvia (Sabadell). The outlook for this year points to greater concentration in the sector, “with the possible sale of some of the existing servicers”, in such a way that their specialisation and differentiation will be definitive.

Original story: El Mundo (by María Hernández)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s Top 7 Servicers Manage 80% of the AuM

15 March 2018 – Expansión

The recovery of the Spanish economy, the reduction in unemployment, the improvement in household income and the decrease in financing costs, together with investors’ appetite for property, have contributed to the configuration of a new real estate map.

One of the distinctive features of the current scenario is the entry of new players, which are absorbing the loans and banking credits associated with real estate assets, mostly homes, and which have taken control of part or all of the servicers, created out of the banks’ former real estate subsidiaries.

These companies have gained prominence and have become a key piece of the real estate market. According to the Trends and Prospects in the Real Estate Sector report, prepared by Axis Corporate, more than 80% of the assets under management are in the hands of Altamira, Servihabitat, Haya, Anida, Aliseda, Anticipa and Solvia, which together have around €220 billion of financial assets under management. Specifically, Altamira – owned by Apollo (85%) and Santander (15%) – controls 22% of the market, with €54.1 billion in financial assets under management. It is followed by Servihabitat –owned by Texas Pacific Group (51%) and Caixa (49%)–, which has a market share of 17%, with €41.1 billion in AuM; Haya (Cerberus), with a market share of 16% and €39.4 billion in AuM; and Anticipa and Aliseda, in which Blackstone holds stakes, which manage 14% of the market between the them, or €35.1 billion.

Meanwhile, Solvia, owned by Sabadell, manages €31 billion, which represents 13%; and Anida, the real estate subsidiary of BBVA, manages around €15.3 billion.

For Luis Fernández de Nograro, Managing Director of Financial Services and Real Estate at Axis Corporate, most of these types of management companies are owned by investment funds whose plans do not involve staying put and industrialising the companies, and so, their exits will happen gradually. That is the case of Cerberus, which is exploring the possibility of debuting Haya Real Estate on the stock market.

For José Masip, Partner of Real Estate at Axis Corporate, the servicers are going to follow the path established by the financial institutions, which will involve concentration in the sector. Moreover, the future of these companies anticipates the implementation of value differentiation strategies that may range from: specialising in the management of rental properties, to the operation of an owned commercial network, to innovation over traditional channels and to their commitment to greater internationalisation in the management of assets or the development of land and promotion activity.

Similarly, the experts point to an acceleration in the sale of toxic assets by the banks to funds and Socimis. Together, the sector divested more than €50 billion in doubtful loans and foreclosed land in 2017 alone, which represents almost twice the figure (€27.4 billion) sold between 2012 and 2016.

Socimis

Another new group of players highlighted in the report are the Socimis, which have contributed to the regeneration of the real estate sector, reactivating investment through tax-optimised vehicles, according to the consultancy.

The report points out that, last year, 17 new Socimis made their debuts on the Alternative Investment Market (MAB), which now has a total of 44 vehicles of this kind. In total, the market value of the listed Socimis exceeds €19 billion.

For Axis Corporate, these types of companies will experience continuous growth until 2019 and the majority will maintain their commitment to the tertiary sector. Sources at the consultancy indicate that there are five Socimis listed on the main stock market, but that just two are in the Ibex 35: Merlin and Colonial. For that reason, they consider that it is very likely that, in the future, there will be mergers, acquisitions and new IPOs.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Irea: “Mistakes Are Still Being Made But We Are A Long Way From A Bubble”

22 February 2018 – El Economista

The real estate sector is booming and the euphoria that is being experienced, especially in the residential segment, is leading to a genuine war in the purchase of land. That is according to Mikel Echavarren (pictured below), CEO of Irea, who says that the first mistakes are starting to be made.

The Director, who has participated in significant operations in the sector, such as Bain’s purchase of Habitat, and who has acted as a financial advisor to Blackstone in its acquisition of Banco Popular, believes that the next alliances will be harder to forge, but, even so, expects to see greater consolidation in the sector.

Q: How is the fabric of the real estate business evolving?

A: The residential development sector is giving rise to eye-catching activities in the market, such as stock market debuts and corporate acquisitions. On the one hand, we have the upper part of the sector, with large companies and on the other hand, we have the vast majority of real estate companies, which are lifting up their heads, maximising everything they can with the few resources they have. They have more money now than they did in 2013 and they have resolved almost all of their debt problems (…). They are all taking their first steps with something that did not exist before the crisis: money from funds for specific projects. And that is causing companies to revive and, as always happens, the markets that are recovering first are the Costa del Sol, Madrid, Barcelona, Málaga, Sevilla and Bilbao. But there are still some markets that have not recovered at all.

Q: Do you need to be big to survive in this sector?

A: Being big in the residential sector means that you can access the land purchases that the majority of companies don’t have the capacity to afford. It does not mean you have to be listed, but being large allows you to access faster and cheaper financing, and with that, you can rotate your portfolio much more. Meanwhile, smaller property developers have to hand over developments that they started three years ago to be able to afford to invest in land now (…).

Q: So, whoever can afford to buy land is guaranteed success?

Yes. Whoever has funds today to buy land in good locations is going to emerge victorious. That is one of the reasons why being large makes sense. Land is a scarce asset and since no new plots are coming onto the market due to the active or passive inoperativeness of the Administration, and because there is no capacity to finance the development of new land, prices are going to soar. Developable land prices have decreased by a lot (since their pre-crisis peaks), by between 60% and 80%, and I am certain that they will rise by between 200% and 300% (…).

Q: This situation means that the greatest fights are now over the purchase of land…

A: Yes, punches are already being thrown in this fight and we are entering a time in which mistakes are being made because people are buying land that is too expensive. But given that they are making those mistakes with their own funds, we are not facing a bubble scenario (…).

Q: With Neinor Homes, Aedas and Metrovacesa now listed, do you think we are going to see a boom in the number of property developers going public?

A: Going public is a consequence of the fact that there are funds behind the real estate companies that are looking to obtain returns. Nowadays, there are so many players wanting to invest in property developers in Spain, because, in theory, their performance is going to be very highly correlated with the recovery of the Spanish economy, that with few listed firms and so much capital, the value of them is increasing and it does not make sense for a property developer’s share price to exceed the value of its assets. I think that in two years time, we will see half a dozen companies listed on the stock market, but no more. There are not going to be that many because it is hard for a property developer to be strong, and to have good and geographically diversified plots. There have been some clear examples that are not going to be replicated, such as in the case of Vía Célere, which is a really good company that was sold because it did not have anyone to take over, but it is hard for many more operations like that to arise. Funds that already participate in a property developer do so because they are sure that they are going to go public. But we can expect to see acquisitions, purchases that seem like mergers (…).

Q: One of the major social problems in this country is the difficulty that young people face when affording to buy their first home. Moreover, they are now also struggling in the rental market…

A: It is a big problem and it reflects a structural change, not a circumstantial change. There is a huge proportion of the population who cannot and will never be able to buy a home in their lifetime, and then there is a percentage of people who do not want to buy a home, who prefer to travel or buy a good car, or simply have more flexibility (…). What is happening is that there is an unstoppable process to expel people from their homes who traditionally lived in rental properties in the centre of cities. That has happened in all of the major cities in Europe and it is going to happen here too. The centre is reserved for people with more money and for tourist rentals (…).

Q: In your view, which operations and businesses do you think still offer good opportunities for investors in Spain?

A: Large investors still have the possibility of creating residential development platforms with good managers and to debut them on the stock market or sell them to another party. I also see options in the sector for alternative financing. If everyone wants to buy land and the banks don’t want to finance land purchases, then there is a niche to lend (expensively) to whoever wants to buy. I also see opportunities in the market for land purchases; for example buying land to develop it or to carry out the final management procedures and then sell it on (…).

Original story: El Economista (by Alba Brualla)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Century 21 Analyses Inorganic Growth Opportunities

25 January 2018 – Expansión

Century 21, one of the largest networks of real estate brokers in Spain, wants to take advantage of the upward trend in the real estate cycle to grow in size, and so is analysing the purchase of regional operators and is even considering merging with one of the national chains.

“Spain is one of the countries in which the broker segment is most fragmented. We are starting to see a trend towards consolidation, which is both inevitable and necessary. We believe that an organised network, with defined working and behavioural criteria and self-regulation, are fundamental for the professionalization of the sector”, said Ricardo Sousa, CEO of Century 21 for Spain and Portugal, speaking to Expansión.

Sousa explains that, although his firm is not currently holding any advanced negotiations in this regard, the company is “mindful” of acquisition opportunities. “There are regional players that may enhance the synergies and allow for more rapid and consistent growth. That is something that appeals to us”, he said.

Alliances

Sousa also opens the door to alliances with players that compete on the national level: “We are continuing with our organic strategy of value creation with the opening of new branches and through our network of collaborators. In parallel, we are watching the market to find the ideal partner”.

The director gives the example of the “success” of the merger between Century 21 Portugal and Fitamétrica – two of the largest networks in the Portuguese market – five years ago.

Century 21 arrived in Spain in 2010, at the height of the crisis in the real estate market. Eight years later and, with the residential sector now booming, the company has 70 branches and 1,150 collaborators.

The director considers that “there is too much optimism in the market”, which is being translated into certain “irrational” investment and purchase decisions. And he adds: “People need to be more careful because the cycles are becoming increasingly faster and shorter”. For Sousa, there is a clear need in Spain for new-build and renovated properties and there is a segment of the population, the middle and low-middle class, that has been “forgotten”.

Last year, the company recorded turnover of €15.7 million, which represented an increase of 37%. In 2018, Century 21 plans to increase its revenues by 27%, to €20 million. Barcelona will account for 30% of total turnover, a similar percentage to that recorded in the Canary Islands, whilst Madrid is expected to represent 25% of total revenues. The company plans to focus its growth efforts on peripheral areas in those regions.

Last year, Century 21 brokered 5,414 transactions, which represents an increase of 22% with an average value of €199,598, down by 6.3%.

In terms of Cataluña –the chain’s main region, which currently accounts for 41% of turnover -, Sousa acknowledges that the political tension led to a deceleration during the months following the referendum. “Many buyers delayed their purchase decisions in October and November, and decided to close those operations in December and January instead, meaning that those months have reached record highs”, he said.

In this regard, Sousa says that whilst the domestic market has been reactivated, international firms are leaving their investment operations on standby, for the time being.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Aguirre Newman: Tertiary RE Inv’t to Exceed €10bn in 2017

30 November 2017 – Expansión

After the odyssey experienced during the years of the crisis, with the drastic fall in the volume of investment, the tertiary real estate sector in Spain is now going through a stage of consolidation. As such, for the third year in a row, the volume of transactions involving non-residential assets is going to exceed the €10 billion threshold again in 2017.

According to the conclusions of a seminar organised by Aguirre Newman and KWM, which included presentations from some of the main players in the sector, this positive trend will continue for the next few years, despite certain risks in the environment, such as the political uncertainty, the inevitable rise in interest rates in Europe, the ageing population and the salaries that continue to stagnate.

At the meeting, which was attended by the main executives and directors of listed companies such as Merlin, Neinor, Aedas and Colonial, amongst others, as well as by property developers and investors such as Grupo Inmobiliario Roca, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Grupo Ibosa, ASG Iberia and Stoneweg. Together, they discussed the evolution of the sector and the challenges for 2018, amongst other topics.

“The tertiary investment market is going through a growth consolidation phase after the deep recession that we suffered between 2008 and 2013. According to our estimates, the volume of investment in tertiary assets will exceed €10 billion for the third year in a row in 2017”, explained Susana Rodríguez, Director General of the Consultancy division at Aguirre Newman.

According to data from the consultancy firm corresponding to the first three quarters of this year, hotel assets have been one of the stars of the real estate sector, with investment of €1.9 billion during the 9 months to September, up by 29% YoY. The high street segment also experienced significant growth, of 37%, with an investment volume of €605 million. Whilst, investment in the logistics segment amounted to €665 million, up by 26% YoY. By contrast, investment in offices during the first three quarters decreased by 23% to €1.9 billion and investment in shopping centres decreased by 3% to €3 billion.

Slow down

In terms of the threat of a rise in interest rates in Europe, the experts agree that there will be at least one or two years of stability and that when the time comes for the rate hike, it will be managed in a moderate way: “They do not consider that it will affect the valuation of assets, given that we are in a phase of growing rents”.

Another one of the challenges facing the sector is caused by the political uncertainty generated in Cataluña following 1 October. The speakers agreed that, for another year, the country risk is going to be one of the issues that concerns investors.

Rodríguez said that the figures in the Catalan market are “very positive” at the end of the third quarter. Specifically, the leasing of offices in Barcelona rose by 8% to 265,470 m2 and the average prime rent rose by 9% to €18.25/m2/month.

“It is undeniable that, since October, we have felt a slowdown in the volume of real estate operations. Both business people and investors alike are postponing decision-making whilst they wait to see how the political tensions and uncertainties that are affecting the market today are resolved”, she added.

Original story: Expansión (by Rebeca Arroyo)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Solvia: House Sales Will Reach 564,000 by 2020

31 October 2017 – Solvia

According to data from the latest trend report issued by Solvia about the real estate market, we can expect to see a moderate increase in the volume of house sales in Spain over the next few years. The increase will also be accompanied by a moderate increase in prices. These forecasts establish a context of real estate recovery in the country.

Towards 560,000 transactions by 2020

Since the number of houses sold in Spain hit rock bottom back in 2013 – when around 300,000 transactions were recorded – the figures have risen by 50%, in just three years. In this way, around 450,000 house sales were recorded in 2016 and Solvia forecasts that this figure will increase by between 7% and 8% per annum over the next three years, to reach 564,000 house sales by 2020.

A key factor in this new real estate cycle is the significant weight of buyers looking to reposition themselves on the housing ladder – whose purchase decisions had been postponed during the years of economic recession – and also small-time investors, who are buying homes to rent them out, given the higher returns offered by the real estate sector compared to other investments. Demand from non-resident foreigners is also expected to continue to grow, driven by the record visitor figures that are being recorded in the tourist sector.

From 2020 onwards, Solvia forecasts that the volume of house sales will start to decrease, for three reasons: the natural demand from the population aged between 25 and 44 years will decline, as will the pent-up demand to buy a home; moreover, the rental culture will continue to grow in popularity amongst the new generations.

Regional focus

By autonomous region, in terms of the volume of transactions for every 1,000 inhabitants, the most dynamic regions will be the Balearic Islands and the Community of Valencia, primarily due to the foreign buyer effect. By contrast, if we look at absolute sales volumes, the most operations will be undertaken in Andalucía, Cataluña, the Community of Madrid and the Community of Valencia.

Original story: Solvia

Translation: Carmel Drake