Tag: boom years

Bankinter: 53,000 More Homes Will Be Sold In 2016

22 February 2016 – Expansión

The recovery of the real estate market is growing from strength to strength and according to Bankinter, in its latest report about the sector, around 420,000 homes will be sold this year, in other words, 53,000 more than in 2015. But, what is driving this growth spurt?

The entity’s analysis predicts that the upswing will continue into 2017, when it forecasts that 450,000 operations will be closed.

Above all, demand for homes is going to be driven by the “improvement in employment, reduced financing costs and the increasing attractiveness of homes as investments”, says the report.

Moreover, “the combination of higher demand and a limited supply in the major cities will result in an increase in average prices in 2016 and 2017 of almost 3% p.a., a figure that could reach 5% in prime areas”, predict the experts at Bankinter.

A new feature of the real estate sector compared with 2015, will be the increase in number of new homes, in light of the upturn in new housing permits registered last year”. However, the analysis warns that this improvement will only happen “provided the political context does not result in a loss of confidence”.

Below, we detail the factors that are expected to drive house sales this year:

1 – Economic growth and an improvement in employment

Bankinter highlights that the Spanish economy is going to grow by more than 2.5% in 2016, a rate that will facilitate the continuation of the positive trend in the labour market over the next few quarters. And it adds that “the increase in the number of people in work (by 525,000, of whom 171,000 have permanent contracts) may represent a catalyst in terms of the demand for housing”.

2 – Low financing costs

Another factor…is the low rates of interest, a scenario that the bank expects to continue until the end of 2017. “12-month Euribor will remain close to 0% in 2016 and the conditions for accessing credit will continue to improve”, according to its forecasts. (…).

3 – Favourable yields compared with alternative investments

The report argues that the gross yield from housing rentals compares favourably to other investment alternatives, such as long-term deposits and fixed income securities, which are currently offering yields of around 0%. (…) …. meanwhile, “gross yields on residential investments may reach 4.0%…”.

4 – “Cultural” trend towards buying homes

The culture of ownership versus renting has survived the crisis in Spain. In fact, despite the fact that demand and the possibilities for accessing housing reduced significantly during the recession, “the percentage of rental homes still remains low (compared with the European average) and has barely increased in recent years (the current rate stands at 21%, up from 17.2% in 2011)”, explains the document. (…).

5– Market outlook

Bankinter also highlights the positive influence of the strong outlook for the market. Specifically, the entity forecasts that housing sales will grow by 6.5% this year and that the favourable conditions in the real estate market will continue into 2017. (…).

No chance of a return to the boom figures

Nevertheless, Bankinter also stresses that, despite the good times being enjoyed by the property sector at the moment, the recovery “does not represent a return, in any way, to the levels of demand seen during the real estate boom years”. The study points to various factors to explain this, such as the declining population (due to the negative migration balance), the awareness that property prices may indeed decrease and, in particular, the fact that the unemployment rate will remain above 17.5% until the end of 2017. These aspects “represent structural changes in the market, which mean that levels of demand exceeding 900,000 homes per year are no longer attainable”.

Original story: Expansión (by B. Amigot)

Translation: Carmel Drake

What Has Become Of The Property Kings?

23 April 2015 – Expansión

The individuals that owned the large real estate companies during the boom years have suffered from sharp drops in sales and in the value of their assets. The largest has filed for bankruptcy and is now at the mercy of its creditors.

The largest land owner in Spain. The largest real estate company in Europe. Those are some of the descriptions that were used to refer to the large Spanish real estate companies almost a decade ago. At their respective helms were businessmen such as Luis Portillo, Rafael Santamaría and Joaquín Rivero (pictured above, left). As such, they were some of the hardest hit by the burst of the real estate bubble in 2007. After generating revenues of hundreds of millions of euros from the sale of homes, these companies and their managers were unable to cope with the high levels of indebtedness that they had accumulated during the boom years, and so found themselves in precarious situations.

But they are not the only ones who suffered from the effects of the sudden change in the sector. Rivero, a businessman from Jerez, is still dealing with the consequences of his stint at Metrovacesa, fighting a hard battle in the courts against his former partner, Román Sanahuja (pictured above, right), regarding the separation process that resulted in Rivero ending up with Gecina and his former partner with Metrovacesa. Sanahuja’s inability to pay the debts of his family business, Sacresa, meant that he lost control of Metrovacesa to the banks in 2010.

Another company that grew from strength to strength during the boom was Afirma (now Quabit). The company was created from the merger of the former entity Astroc, controlled by Enrique Bañeulos, Landscape and Rayet, a company led by Félix Abánades. After various refinancing processes, the businessman from La Alcarria managed to move forward with the listed real estate company Quabit. However, the same thing did not happen with its parent company, the construction group Rayet, which is now trying to exit from its bankruptcy process.

Francisco Hernando, known as El Pocero, was another one of the most well-known developers. Hernando developed a residential estate in the town of Seseña (Toledo), where he was planning to construct more than 15,000 homes. In the end, just under 5,000 homes were built; 3,000 of those ended up in the hands of the creditor bank as Hernando was unable to pay his debts.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Large Funds & Socimis Invest €2,500M In RE In Q1 2015

20 April 2015 – Expansión

Q1 2015 / Major international investors and Socimis purchased more non-residential property in Spain during the first quarter of 2015 than during the whole of 2012.

The investor frenzy that began in the Spanish real estate sector at the end of 2013 and intensified last year is on track to smash all historic records (this year), including the peak levels of the boom years. Between January and March, large international funds, companies from Spain and the rest of Europe and new listed real estate real estate investment companies (Socimis) made purchases worth €2,463 million, according to the consultancy firm C&W, i.e. three times the volume recorded during the same period last year.

This figure exceeds the total volume of investment made during 2012 in its entirety, when the global crisis really hit the Spanish real estate sector and only €2,087 million was invested in the market, according to Deloitte Real Estate. Having been boosted by domestic and international purchasers who spent more than €8,500 million in 2014, the start of this year reflects a “unique” time in the sector for various reasons, according to market experts.

On the one hand, the Spanish economy is recovering well, which is resulting in higher consumption and more recruitment, which is in turn influencing commercial and office buildings.

On the other hand, the decrease in prices, of up to 40% in the case of assets, has meant that many opportunities exist in terms of price in the Spanish market, in contrast to what is happening in other European countries. “The low profitability of fixed income assets has turned real estate into an important sector in terms of investment portfolios. Furthermore, prices are stabilising, access to credit is opening up and the economy is growing”, say sources at Aguirre Newman. The confluence of these elements has led all of the players in the real estate sector to show their support Spain: from the most opportunistic funds seeking properties with significant discounts to more institutional investors, such as sovereign and pension funds, and including Spanish and foreign real estate companies.

Battle for assets

All of this has led to a real war for the best assets (known in real estate jargon as trophy buildings), which means that this year looks set to be a record year in terms of purchases. “We expect to see great figures in 2015, approaching €7,000 million in terms of direct non-residential investment”, explain sources at JLL España.

“If the level of interest in Spanish real estate assets from major global investors continues for the rest of the year, then we could see historic record figures in 2015, even higher than the peak recorded in 2007, when transactions with a total value exceeding €12,000 million were closed”, add C&W.

Original story: Expansión (by R. Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

Spain’s New ‘Property Kings’

2 March 2015 – El Mundo

2006 was a key year for Fernando Martín. Not only did the Chairman of Martinsa hold the presidency of Real Madrid for a short time, he also acquired the real estate company Fadesa for €4,000 million. Two years later, the burst of the (real estate) bubble put an end to his reign. Since then, the businessman has tried to resist (his downfall) until this week, when the banks and Sareb put an end to his adventures, by plunging Martinsa into bankruptcy. His creditors say that throughout the bankruptcy negotiations, Martín has demanded that he continue in his role as Chairman of the company and also retain his company car, his secretary and his salary of around €1.5 million, even though the company’s activity has been minimal.

With this defeat falls the last of the property lords who led the Spanish economy’s most important sector during the boom years, with negotiation tactics that many associate with lobster lunches and (VIP) boxes at football matches.

However, Martín’s fall coincides with the rebirth of the empire. Last year, institutional investors closed transactions amounting to €14,000 million in Spain (a volume of activity that was only exceeded in 2006 and 2007) and data from the housing market also shows that the property sector has turned the corner towards recovery. In fact, in 2014, the number of new mortgages taken out increased for the first time, after six years in decline.

This rebirth is accompanied by new businessmen with profiles more akin to those of bankers than (property) developers. The property kings’ successors are more used to having canopes for lunch, in true British style, and many of the important decisions about the future developments that will see the return of cranes to Spain’s landscape, are no longer being made in (VIP) boxes at the Bernabéu, but instead in offices in Madrid, the City of London, Dallas, New York and Beijing.

Former developers, such as Fernando Martín, Enrique Bañuelos (Astroc) and Rafael Santamaría (Reyal Urbis) have now made way for Wang Jianlin (Wanda), Ismael Clemente (Merlin Properties), Juan Pepa (Lone Star) and Concha Osácar (Azora).

These are executives who no longer depend on the banks to finance their projects; instead they are backed by large insurance companies, sovereign funds and even highly qualified investors, such as George Soros and Carlos Slim.

“We are facing a paradigm shift. During the boom (years), developers wanted to make more than they were able to and they focused on stocking up on land, due to the peculiarities of that raw material. However, (property) development is like manufacturing and no manufacturer purchases (his) raw materials 10 years in advance. When we hit economic difficulties, that model collapsed. Now, we are seeing different management and development models exist side by side. We are moving towards a more professional model, in which fewer developers compete, with stronger brands”, explains Luis Ruiz Bartolomé, co-author of the book ‘Return, property, return’ (‘Vuelve, ladrillo, vuelve’).

Under this model, the large investors, cooperatives and local developers that have managed to survive the difficult years, are going to co-exist. All of them will compete with a different mentality and with new ways of managing assets.

“The new players in the real estate sector will have to analyse the current key factors (effectively) to enable them to have a more global profile through increased specialisation and professionalization”, says the partner responsible for Real Estate at KPMG, Javier López Torres.

Wang Jianlin (pictured above)

On his trips to Spain, the Chinese tycoon has enjoyed evenings at the Teatro Real, but he also likes football. In fact, his first investments in this country were in the Torre España – a building he bought from Santander – and a stake in Atletico de Madrid. Now, the owner of the Wanda Group wants to launch the development of the so-called Wang mega-complex, a residential and leisure park that may be constructed on land that used to house former barracks in Madrid. Nevertheless, to date, the Asian millionaire’s investments in Spain have merely represented a token gesture, in the context of the global figures for his real estate business. The Wanda Group is the largest land-owner in China and it is constructing the largest residential skyscraper in London, next to the Thames. According to the Chinese press, Jianlin is also considering the purchase of the AC Milan football team.

Jaime Echegoyen

It is likely that when the Chairman of Sareb was CEO at Bankinter and Head of Barclays in Spain, he never imagined that it would end up holding the reins of the bad bank. This banker, who always works with office door open, is responsible for managing the real estate giant that was created in 2012 with 200,000 assets (80% financial and 20% property) amounting to €50,781 million. Echegoyen’s team is working on the completion of 1,000 homes (which it received ‘unfinished’ from the banks) across 52 sites. In addition, it is studying the development of some of the 5,000 plots of land that it received as inheritance, to be able to better market them before 2027, when the semi-public company will have to be dissolved.

Juan Pepa

This Argentine, who lives in London, is the Managing Director of the North American fund Lone Star and in 2013, he managed to convince US investors to back Spanish property. When Pepa comes to Spain and announces that his is going to launch the largest developer in the country this Spring, he does so with a level of enthusiasm that may surprise (people) after the hard times experienced in recent years. “We are going to fill the country with cranes”, he likes to declare. In recent years, Lone Star has purchased the real estate company Neinor from Kutxabank and Eurohypo’s loan business (together with JP Morgan) to launch this project. With a financial background and an MBA, Pepa plays polo and is the patron of the Pro Alvear Foundation, which works to promote education and technology in the La Pampa province of Argentina. This executive, who is less than 40 years-old, does not like the press referring to his fund as a vulture; he assures them that he has not come to Spain with a short-term view and although, he does not provide any details about his project, he says that the proof will be in the fact that it will generate value for the Spanish economy.

Ismael Clemente

Also a banker by trade – he used to work at Deustche Bank for example – but more closely related to property than Echegoyen and Pepa, Clemente founded Magic Real Estate during the worst year of the crisis (2012) and now is the head of Merlin Properties, the Socimi that debuted on the stock exchange in an IPO that raised €1,250 million.

George Soros and Carlos Slim

The tycoon who devalued the pound in 1992 and the Mexican multi-millionaire represent the many international investors who want to get involved in the recovery of the (real estate) sector through their financial investments. Soros is one of Hispania’s shareholders, whilst Slim has taken a stake in FCC. From there, he wants to acquire Realia to complete his business empire, which includes valuable assets from around the world, in many different sectors; América Móvil is one of the jewels in his crown.

Leopoldo Moreno

In addition to the businesses of large investors, cooperatives are also proving themselves to be a successful formula for development, as banks have closed the (financing) taps. The CEO of Ibosa has known how to take advantage of this model with numerous developments in the Community of Madrid.

Santos Montoro

This businessman from Murcia is a good example of how a family developer can compete in the (new) real estate model that has been imposed by the investment funds. In fact, his company, Monthisa (which was created in 1968) has managed to reinvent itself during this crisis to form a partnership with the fund H.I.G. to manage the Bull portfolio, a batch of apartments and garages that the US vehicle purchased from Sareb.

Enrique Bañuelos

After the fiasco involving Astroc, this deposed king has resumed his activity in London. From the City he wants to develop (property) in Spain through his new company called Veremonte and participate in BCNWorld, the tourism and leisure macro project that the Catalan authorities are looking to build

Original story: El Mundo (by María Vega)

Translation: Carmel Drake