Tinsa: Housing Stock to Disappear in 2017

28/01/2014 – Expansion

The real estate valuation company predicts that the accumulated property stock posts the number of 400.000 units at the beginning of the year. Such real estate surplus could diminish by the second half of 2017, so long as the economical conditions (creation of work places and evolution of credit) are met.

According to Tinsa, it is expected that the new housing starts will have revived by the second half of 2015. In fact, the demand for them will be set for years 2014 and 2015 at 100.000 units annually. If it persists, the dwellings being presently in exceed could dwindle by 2017, as Íñigo Valenzuela, the general commercial director of Tinsa, points out.

Along with the company´s predictions, the stock will have shrunk by January 2016 to 300.000 units. Moreover, taking into account the property acquired as a long-term investment, the houses in exceed will decline to 195.000 properties at the beginning of 2016.

In geographical terms, a large part of the houses in exceed has been already absorbed on the Balearic and the Canary Islands, while in the consolidated hub of the big cities the stock is scarce if compared to demand.

Talking about the coast, the latest developments will performance badly on the market, however in Marbella price rebound has been observed.

Drop in Prices

According to the data from the last quarter of 2013, the sharpest drop-offs have been registered in Madrid (13,1%); Castilla la Mancha (12,3%) and Asturias (11,8%), whereas the least abrupt on the Balearic Islands (2,3%); in Navarra (3,1%) and on the Canary Islands (3,5%).

If it comes to the maximum values, the most significant adjustments have been noted down in Castilla la Mancha (50,2%) and Catalonia (49,1%).

In accordance with the tertiary use markets, Tinsa foresees that the new construction property developments will restart in medium-term, (…).

In case of offices, the rental prices begin to be attractive and they are expected to stabilize within several quarters with an increase in transactions. In the retail sector, the sales loss will carry on throughout 2014, with a stabilizing tendency, especially in rent. Perspectives are more pesimistic for the industrial and logistic market, that is deemed to poor building demand.

Source: Expansión