14 July 2015 – Cinco Días
The lack of new housing developments in Madrid in recent years means that the few blocks that have been built are being sold quickly, as the economic environment improves. So much so that the marketing company Foro Consultores has conducted the first comprehensive study of the new build segment, which not only estimates the size of the stock of new homes in the capital, it also calculates when that stock may be depleted if the current strong rate of sales continues.
The study, based on visits to all of the developments currently for sale and simulations of purchases or direct surveys at the sites, has focused on analysing the existing supply in new urban developments (Arroyo del Fresno, Montecarmelo, Las Tablas, Sanchinarro, Valdebebas, El Cañaveral, El Ensanche de Vallecas and Carabanchel), since those are the areas where the new builds are concentrated. Whole new buildings are the exception rather than the rule in the city centre and in the city’s more established neighbourhoods.
Foro Consultores begins its report by highlighting the number of new homes: currently the stock of new homes available for sale in Madrid amounts to 1,770, of which 781 are “free” and 989 are social housing (VPO) homes. That figure represents just 20% of the total number of buildings that have started to be built since 2010. Moreover, we are talking about very small numbers if we take into account that the study has analysed 102 developments in total, containing 4,001 “free” homes and 3,861 social housing homes, almost 8,000 homes, which came onto the market in recent years as turnkey properties or homes sold off-plan.
4.1 homes sold per development per month
The uptake of homes by region is not uniform. More than half of the new homes built in El Cañaveral, in the south of the city – the last development to get underway – have not yet been sold. Meanwhile, in other new neighbourhoods, such as Montecarmelo, less than 5% of the new homes or those under construction remain unsold. Furthermore, in Ensanche de Vallecas in 2007, there were almost 3,000 unsubsidised new homes for sale, but now there are just 166 left.
As well as the scarcity of supply due to the construction paralysis in recent years, one of the keys that explains the fast absorption of the stock is the acceleration in the rate of sales in recent months. Foro Consultores estimates that if no new developments come onto the market, then the excess would be depleted in just six months, at the current sales rate of 4.1 homes per development per month.
The study highlights that these 4.1 homes sold (per development per month) represents the sale of 5.3% of developments every 30 days, an average rhythm that has not been seen since 2003, and for unsubsidised housing, that figure is almost 5 homes per development per month, whereas during the crisis, it never exceeded one unit per month.
The study also shows that 79% of the developments on the market were started between 2010 and 2015, and of those 77% have already been sold.
In terms of prices, the report also highlights that in certain developments in El Cañaveral, the price of unsubsidised homes is lower than the price of VPO homes, which is not very typical in Madrid. “This shows that the social housing pricing model is out of synch with the market and that the promoters of unsubsidised homes have adapted better to the changes in conditions”, explained Foro Consultores.
In the areas analysed, the absolute prices of unsubsidised homes ranges between €77,000 and €657,000, with an average price of €273,021. Meanwhile, the prices of VPO homes range between €38,474 and €382,652, with an average price of €150,721.
Finally, the study concludes that by type of home, three-bedroom houses are in most demand. Meanwhile, the construction of studios and small flats, which were so fashionable during the boom, is now reducing.
Original story: Cinco Días (by Raquel Díaz Guijarro)
Translation: Carmel Drake