House Prices Will Fall by 6% This Year and Will Recover in 2021, according to UBS

21 April 2020 –

The Swiss bank believes that prices will fall by less in large cities. It estimates that homes in Madrid, Barcelona and the País Vasco will lose only between 3% and 5% of their value.

The Spanish residential market will suffer a price decrease of 6% in 2020, due to rising unemployment, according to forecasts from UBS. In a report on the real estate market, the Swiss bank explains that it expects house prices to fall “by less in big cities and by more in secondary locations” and that the recovery to pre-coronavirus crisis levels will happen between 2021 and 2022.

According to the investment bank, prices in the Spanish property market – which suffered a sharp decline between 2009 to 2013 and an uneven recovery since 2014 – are slightly above fair value. This means that the falls may not to be as significant as they were last time around. Furthermore, UBS notes that prices outside of the largest cities and best coastal areas have experienced limited significant variations in the last cycle.

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Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake