House Prices Forecast To Rise By 5% In 2017

6 June 2017 – Expansión

Growth / The sharp fall in house prices during the crisis years, combined with the pent-up demand, the reactivation of mortgage lending and the recovery of the Spanish economy means that property developers, appraisal companies, real estate companies, funds and consultants alike are all predicting fresh rises in house prices this year. Nevertheless, the professionals stress that the growth in prices will vary by area, with Madrid and Barcelona leading the recovery.

In 2016, house prices rose by 4.7% in Spain on average, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). That growth rate was the highest since the burst of the real estate bubble, a decade ago. And the experts believe that that figure will not only be repeated in 2017, it will actually be bettered. “According to CBRE’s Trend Barometer which reflects the views of the 100 most senior directors in the real estate sector, one out of every two surveyed believe that house prices will grow by between 3% and 6% in 2017 at the national level, whereas only 21% shared that optimism in 2016. It is the first time since the start of the crisis that the experts are forecasting a general rise in house prices in Spain”, explained Adolfo Ramírez Escudero, President, CBRE Spain. (…).

According to the majority of the experts, the increase will amount to around 5% this year…(…).

Although all of the experts are optimistic about the overall trend in prices, several are quick to point out that this increase will vary by region. “The recovery in prices is proving selective and heterogeneous. Although prices are soaring in certain places, they have still not bottomed out in other markets”, said Pedro Soria, at Tinsa.

“Salaries have not risen to a level that makes us think that prices are going to soar, although there are some exceptions in specific areas of the large regional capitals where we have detected strong demand”, said David Martínez, CEO at Aedas Homes.

By area, Madrid and Barcelona account for the best forecasts in terms of price rises. (…).

Similarly, in addition to the two major cities, the positive outlook is starting to spread to new areas. “Prices are on the rise primarily in the major capitals and on the islands”, said Sandra Daza, at Gesvalt.

The improvements in the macroeconomic variables mean that the good feelings about the housing market this year are also expected to have an impact over the coming years. “House prices are going to continue to rise over the next few years. This year, we expect to see an average rise of around 5%, but the shortage of buildable land in those areas where demand exists means that we can expect to see higher rates of growth in the future”, said Javier de Oro, at Aliseda, the real estate arm of Banco Popular.

In this sense, and despite the price rises that have been seen in recent quarters, the experts point out that we are still a long way from the figures seen before the burst of the bubble. “We are entering a period of growth, which may last three or four years. It is true that there are cycles, but I don’t think that we’ll ever see the price decreases of the past again”, said Juan Antonio Gómez-Pintado, President of the property developer Vía Célere and of the sector organisations Asprima and APCE. (…).

Whilst in the case of new homes, the upward trend in prices seems clear, in the case of second-hand properties, a recovery is also being seen but at a slower pace. “So far this year, our real estate index has been registering very slight YoY decreases, of just a few tenths of a percentage point, which shows us that second-hand house prices in Spain are stabilising”, said Beatriz Toribio, Head of Research at Fotocasa. (…).

Original story: Expansión (by Rocío Ruiz)

Translation: Carmel Drake

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