9 February 2015 – El Mundo
Many banks (49%) believe that financing will return to normal between 2016 and 2018
Although many large banks are already taking positions in the real estate sector to benefit from its recovery, with transactions such as Operation Chamartín led by BBVA, or Santander’s increase of its stake in Metrovacesa, the financial sector does not believe that 2015 will be the year that marks the full recovery of the real estate sector. That is the conclusion of a study conducted by the consultancy KPMG, based on the views of more than 200 sector experts in the Spanish market.
According to the document, 2015 is going to be “year zero” in terms of the start of recovery of the Spanish real estate sector in Spain – 80% of Spanish banks and Sareb do not expect credit for housing and other real estate activities to flow normally this year, despite the fact that according to data published by the Bank of Spain, consumer loans and mortgages recorded a slight increase towards the end of 2014, for the first time since 2007.
Many financial institutions (49%) expect that financing will return to normal between 2016 and 2018, whilst 31% do not expect that it will happen for more than two years.
By that time, i.e.. from 2018 onwards, 79% of the banks surveyed (plus Sareb, the bad bank) expect that the stock of real estate assets, which is still being accumulated in Spain and which continues to weigh down on the results of the financial sector, will be absorbed.
Nevertheless and despite the high levels of unemployment, demand could increase significantly from 2016, according to 51% of the financial institutions that have participated in the study.
The sector is divided in its assessment of how this demand will behave and there is no consensus as to whether there has been a change in the mindsets of young people following this economic crisis. 50% of the banks surveyed (plus Sareb) believe that young people (aged less than 35 years) in Spain will continue to prefer to buy a home rather than rent one and most of the rest (44%) think that there will be a change in the home buying trend and that young Spaniards will chose to rent rather than buy as we learn from the past.
Nevertheless, there is complete consensus amongst respondents as to the involvement of financial institutions in supporting the recovery of the real estate market and the importance of their role as lenders, given that the other methods that are currently being used to close transactions – such as direct lending or investment by specialist funds – are necessary but not sufficient for the sector to fully recover.
There is also strong consensus (85%) that the old financing model of high leverage, which generated the property boom in Spain will not be repeated.
Construction reduces its weight over total GDP
According to estimates by the National Construction Confederation (Confederación Nacional de la Construcción or CNC), the construction sector accounted for around 23% of Spain’s GDP in 2007; by 2013, that weight had decreased by more than half (to 10%). The study, conducted by KPMG’s Real Estate team, concludes that 82% of the players involved in this business (banks, Sareb, companies, investors and the public sector) believe that construction’s contribution to national wealth will exceed 10% within five years, however it will have to reach 15% for it to really constitute a recovery. The majority of the participants in the survey agree that employment will be generated in the sector over the next five years. More than half think that the construction sector will provide work for more than 7% of the active population and more than a third believe that this figure will amount to 10%. But everyone agrees that the figure will not reach the level (14%) seen before the crisis.
Original story: El Mundo (by María Vega)
Translation: Carmel Drake