8 July 2015 – Europa Press
According to the Centre for Economic Forecasting (‘Centro de Prediccón Económica’ or Ceprede), despite the forecast decline in the population, demand for housing will grow by 85,000 units per year, on average, over the next few years, due to an increase in the creation of smaller households.
The calculations made by Ceprede take into account forecasts from the National Institute for Statistics (INE), which point to a reduction in the Spanish population of more than one million people by 2030.
By contrast, Ceprede predicts that the number of households will increase at an average annual rate of around 145,000 units per year, due to a decline of more than thirty basis points in the ratio of the average household size, from 2.5 people in 2015 to 2.2 in 2030.
Specifically, whilst the population comprises 46.4 million people in 2015, the number of households stands at 18.3 million. Whereas, in 2016, the number of inhabitants will begin to decline moderately, to 46.3 million, and the number of households will increase slightly to 18.5 million.
This trend in terms of the decreasing population will continue until 2030, by which point the population will have shrunk to 45.1 million and the number of households will have increased to 20.6 million.
In this way, Ceprede says that the gap between the net increase in housing stock and new homes will gradually narrow over time, as the accumulated stock of housing is absorbed. This will result in an increase in demand for homes, but at a very moderate rate – around 85,000 units per year.
Meanwhile, the ratio of homes per household will continue at its current level of 1.4 until 2019, at which point it will decrease by ten basis points to 1.3, where it will remain until 2030.
Original story: Europa Press
Translation: Carmel Drake