16 January 2017 – El Mundo
One out of every two directors in the real estate sector in Spain believe that house prices at the national aggregate level will rise by between 3% and 6% in 2017, compared with only 21% that thought the same in 2016. That is one of the main conclusions of the Real Estate Trends Barometer compiled annually by CBRE, the largest international real estate consultancy and services firm. For the preparation of the Barometer, CBRE has surveyed the 100 main experts in the sector in our country.
This indicator is particularly important because it is the first time since the outbreak of the crisis that experts in the sector forecast an overall increase in prices in the Spanish residential market. That, together with other data, is evidence of the recovery in the housing market. In fact, 56% of the experts surveyed believe that the absorption of housing will gradually increase and half of them think that prime yields will grow in the residential sector.
Similarly, after property developers experienced a revival in 2016, 36% of those surveyed consider that most opportunities will be found in renovations within the residential segment in 2017, followed by new build homes, which means that the number of cranes should continue to follow the rising path that has already begun.
The awakening of property developers and real estate companies
Almost 60% of the experts consulted forecast that private investors and family offices will be more active in 2017 than last year, followed by core plus funds (according to 44%) and institutional investors (30%). Moreover, 58% of the directors in the sector think that opportunistic investors will decrease their activity in the market in 2017, an important change compared to recent years.
Nevertheless, the most striking conclusion is the perception that the people surveyed have of the role that property developers and real estate companies will play this year. In fact, 32.2% of those surveyed think that property developers will play a key role, compared with 6.6% who thought the same last year. Similarly, 44.4% (compared with 26.3% last year) think that their role will increase although in a less marked way.
Meanwhile, in terms of other players, the Socimis are expected to continue to play a key role according to one out of three experts. International investors will also be significant players in 2017, according to 31.5% and finally, domestic investors will remain stable with respect to last year or may even slightly increase their presence according to the vast majority.
Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero, President of CBRE Spain, added that “these forecasts seem to show a continuous line with respect to 2016, a year in which, according to our data, more than 40% of the €13,850 million invested in the real estate sector in our country came from overseas and when Socimis accounted for around 40% of the total capital invested”.
Offices will continue to attract most attention in the market
Like in the previous two years, the office sector will continue to be the most attractive in 2017. Whilst last year, 32% of those surveyed focused their real estate activity in Spain on that segment, this year 35% expect to do so, followed by 19% who are committed to the residential sector. Moreover, interest in the industrial-logistics sector has increased, up from 12% last year to 16% this year. (…).
Original story: El Mundo
Translation: Carmel Drake