BBVA Research: The New Rental Decree & AJD Law Will Dissuade Investment in Housing

15 April 2019 – Expansión

BBVA Research is predicting a slowdown in the increase in residential investment this year and next, with forecast growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.3% in 2020, after the sector closed 2018 with growth of 6.9%.

According to the Spain Watch report compiled by the research house, the main driver behind the expected slowdown is the regulatory changes that “are affecting the sector and increasing legal uncertainty for landlords, which are reducing the incentives to entry for large investors and making purchases in regions with exposure to the tourist sector less attractive”.

The legal uncertainty first emerged at the end of 2018 when changes were made to the rental law and to who is responsible for paying Stamp Duty (AJD). Previously it was the purchaser; now it is the lender bank. That has resulted in a deceleration in residential sales, which may only be temporary, but at this stage is too early to say.

Meanwhile, BBVA Research has revised down its forecasts for the construction sector for this year and next, with increases of 4.8% and 4.7%, respectively, in light of the above.

Original story: Expansión

Translation/Summary: Carmel Drake

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