20 October 2017 – El País
House sales in Spain may reach 526,000 units in 2018, up by 9.3% with respect to the 481,000 operations that are expected to be closed in 2017 (which, in turn, represents 10.1% more than last year), provided financing conditions and the performance of the Spanish and Eurozone economies continue on course. Of that total, the bulk will be replacement homes (upgrades) and just 275,000 will involve the creation of new households. Moreover, the prices of new and second-hand homes will continue to rise with a growth rate of 5.8% during the fourth quarter of 2017 and of another 5% during 2018, although they will still be 23% lower than the peaks recorded in 2007.
Those are some of the findings of a report by Anticipa Real Estate, specialising in real estate management and loans, and belonging to the international fund Blackstone, about the housing market in Spain 2017-2019, which the firm’s CEO, Eduard Mendiluce, presented at the Barcelona Meeting Point conference, together with Josep Oliver, a professor from Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), whose team compiled the research.
The increase that is forecast by the company with respect to the minimums recorded in 2013, when just 285,000 transactions were completed, will reach 85% by 2018. Nevertheless, according to Professor Oliver, the market volumes are still 42% below the peaks of 2006, when more than 900,000 private homes were sold.
Other figures that are below the maximums reached in the boom years are the number of finished homes (private and social housing properties) in Spain. The report sets a total of 63,400 units for 2019, compared to 62,900 units forecast for 2017. Although these figures represent a significant increase (more than 48%) with respect to the minimum recorded in 2016 (42,700 finished homes), the volume is 90% lower than the expansion peaks.
In terms of Cataluña, the research indicates that the number of private home sales should amount to around 82,000 during 2017 as a whole (up by 10.8% YoY) and 90,000 during 2018 (up by 9.8%). In terms of prices, they are forecast to increase by 6.9% in 2017 and by 6.1% in 2018. Given that the reduction in house prices was greater in Cataluña than across Spain as a whole (almost 45% compared to 37%), prices in 2018 are still expected to be 27% lower than those of 2007.
Original story: El País (by S.L.L)
Translation: Carmel Drake