23 December 2015 – El Mundo
We are coming to the end of a year that has been characterised by the consolidation of a new cycle in the housing market, marking an end to the crisis that began in the third quarter of 2007 and reached its peak in 2013.
On the basis of sales data and market analysis performed by Aliseda Inmobiliaria, the real estate servicer has identified ten trends for 2016.
1- Most sales will involve second-hand homes
As a result of the reduction in the real estate stock, due to the absence of new property developments, the sale of second hand homes in Spain will gain prominence ahead of the sale of new builds.
2- Three-bedroom homes will continue to be the star product
Especially when we are talking about primary residences, buyers will continue to prefer this kind of home given that “the sensation of luxury begins with the sense of space”.
3- Foreigners will be the main buyers of secondary residences
Interest from foreigners in holiday homes has been particularly noteworthy during the years of the crisis and continues to be significant today. 65% of the secondary residences sold in our country have foreign buyers. By contrast, when we talk about primary residences, 95% of the buyers are Spanish.
4- More financing: recovery of domestic demand
Greater access to credit favours financing, and so in 2016, we expect to see a recovery in the number of homes sold, increasing by 15-20% with respect to 2015.
5- Price stabilisation
The general trend is towards stabilisation after years of decreases, but there are still provinces, those with the greatest volume of stock, where prices are still falling. Land prices, another one of the key indicators of recovery, are growing in the primary urban centres such as Madrid, Barcelona and the Costa del Sol, and these increases are beginning to spread to other areas, such as Alicante, Córdoba and País Vasco, amongst others.
6- Spain is still a country of buyers (rather than renters)
Faced with the option of renting, given the benefits that can be obtained in this regard, Spaniards will still prefer to purchase their own homes. It is possible that in the future the trend will change slightly to fall in line with European trends.
7- A home is regarded as an investment
Buying a home will continue to form part of the Spanish “philosophy of life”, in the sense that home owners are more protected by current legislation.
8- Cranes will return to the cities
In 2015, the number of construction permit approvals increased by 20%, and it is expected that this positive trend will continue into 2016, with a significant supply of potential buyers. Demand for new homes could reach 80,000-85,000 homes and demand for replacement stock could amount to 70,000-75,000 homes. Moreover, homes on the coast will continue to increase in number.
9- Property developments on the increase
Compared with the years before the real estate crisis, when the number of new build permits reached 750,000, the current figures amount to around 50,000, although this figure is expected to continue to increase with more new build permits. We could see up to 200,000 homes being constructed per year in the short term.
10- Young people will be the stars of the show
Young people have been most affected in terms of their ability to access housing in recent years, due to the economic crisis. Currently, they are the cohort that is expressing the greatest interest in acquiring a property and they are going to play a key role in the sector in the future.
Original story: El Mundo
Translation: Carmel Drake