The glass is half full or half empty, depending on the points of view, referring to the situation of the Italian banks, which hold a crucial role in the trend of the real economy, including the real estate.
Clear up after the bailouts
Beginning with the first perspective, there are encouraging signals for the bailouts of Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, since long struggling with a restoration plan.
The bailout plan seriously risked being a failure when the EU requested a precautionary recapitalisation from privates for 1.2 billion before the State could participate to the bail of the two banks (6.5 billion euro are ready since two months). Money that nobody wants to put, since afterwards the State will take control of the operation and, in any case, it will be difficult to recover that money, as it will take a long time for the two banks to go back to normality.
It’s clear though that the continuous pressures from the Government to the other banks to draw up a bailout plan starts to give the expected results. First the Ceo of Unicredit Group, Jean-Pierre Mustier, and then the high management of Intesa San Paolo have said to be open to the possibility to input new capital in the Venetian banks, aware that, in case of termination of the two banks, there will be the threat of a new systemic crisis which could crush the entire Italian banking system. The problem is that the two main Italian banks don’t want to take care of the bailout all by themselves and they have will intervene only at the condition that also the other banks will take part. These other banks, however, are nowhere to be found. This is the reason why it’s so difficult to reach a conclusion on the matter, even though the situation is far more serene that the previous days.
“The solution is getting nearer, the dialogue with the European institutions are encouraging”, declared in a memo the Ministry for the Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan. “the solution will not imply any form of bail-in and the senior bondholders and the investors will be in any case fully guaranteed”. A clear message, that shows a positive evolution of the matter.
The new front of the State bonds
After mentioning a big issue in the process of resolution, it is necessary to signal a new front that might open soon. Since long Germany and its closest allies in the EU have been pushing for a review of the evaluations on the solidity of the banks towards their exposure in State bonds. Hence, the banks that own many State bonds cannot be considered as safe as those that have a great number of German Bund. A logic that is becoming more and more popular among the technocrats of Brussels and Frankfurt and that risks causing great damage in our country. Because, if our banks lose investors’ trust, we’ll risk a new systemic crisis in the entire country, which is heavily dependent on the banks’ credit.