After 10 years, the real estate market resumes: EU +9.3%, Italy +6.2% in 2018
After ten years of deep recession, the European real estate markets are starting again. The transactions are increasing in all the segments and the quotations are higher than the inflation.
These figures come from the European Outlook 2018, presented in Milan by Scenari Immobiliari, in occasion of the 25th Forum Scenari presentation taking place in Margherita Ligure. Presenting the dossier, Mario Breglia, President of Scenari Immobilari, said: “Also in Italy, the crisis is over, but the recovery seems to be more delicate, due to some structural weaknesses of our country”.
For the five main European economies, the turnover will grow in 2017 by 6% to reach almost 9% next year. The growth in all the 28 European countries is more pronounced, with a 12.9%, significantly higher than the 8% of USA. Spain and France will experience a real boom in 2018, with sales growing by more than 10%.Great Britain is supposed to recover from the negative trend of the last two years, Germany will grow aligned with Italy, slightly more than 6%.
A positive trend for the economy on the overall, a recovery of the demand in all the sectors and a slight inflation are fuelling the European real estate markets. The limited construction activities during the recession have reduced the availability of properties (especially the quality ones) in all the countries, reducing the vacancies and increasing the rents. From the European Outlook 2018 emerges that the prices are increasing in nearly all the sectors (except for the industrial), with picks of 4% in Germany and Spain.
Also for Italy, the national average is increasing by 0.3% in the residential market for the end of the year and by 1.1% for next year. “However, the figures vary from city to city – commented Breglia –While Milan, Venice and other cities are considerably rising, in the majority of the cities the prices are still unchanged or even decreasing”.
The European Outlook also contains an analysis of the winners and the losers of the recession. Only Germany has gone through the crisis unscathed, while for the other countries the consequences have been very negative. The European turnover has fallen (in monetary terms) by 7.3%, and more than 10% in four countries. The average prices for houses have dropped almost by 9% in Europe, but by 35.6% in Spain and 15.6% in Italy. Milan and Rome have survived the crisis and now they have slightly better figures than ten years ago. Only the cities of Northern Europe have registered a significant growth.
From 2000 till today, the Italian real estate market has grown by almost 50%, more than the European average (nearly 30%). The recovery will consolidate throughout the following year, with a plus 6.5% in the residential segment (expected 630 thousand sales) and in booming sectors such hospitality.
“The growth potential of the Italian market – concluded Breglia – is remarkable for what concerns residential rentals, innovative services (such as co-working) and a wide array of services. Investments are necessary to implement security systems in the houses. We must remember that there are nearly one million houses currently under construction, stuck by bankruptcies or settlements of construction companies. Taxation keeps institutional and private investors away. We are in such marginal position in a context where real estate might be an instrument of urban renovation and resource allocation”.
After the Outlook’s presentation, the first Observatory for environmental sustainability “Building for tomorrow’s people” was announced. The focus is on energy efficiency and security. The observatory is brought by Scenari Immobiliari and Johson Controls and it will be presented during the 25th Forum Scenari.
Francesco Giaccio, President and Ceo of Johnson Controls Italy, commented “ I must thank Scenari Immobiliari for having collaborated with us for our first survey with the aim of connecting the industrial world with real estate, this is for us a strategic market. We were the first to implement works with the best technological performance. We’re intending to give continuity to this observatory, proposing every time a new topic: this year we’ re talking about environmental sustainability with a focus on energy efficiency and security, this latter being a crucial matter nowadays, considered the last events”.
“Let me thank Scenari Immobiliari once again – continued Giaccio – for hosting us at the prestigious Forum of Santa Margherita to introduce our survey. In conclusion, a brief introduction on Johnson Controls: we are a fast growing company aiming at providing the market with important news. Our company has a turnover of 30 billion dollars, 117 thousand employees, over 8,700 patents, it’s present in more than 150 countries and holds several certifications. Johnson Controls provides innovative technology solutions. I’ll see you at the event following the Santa Margherita Forum, the “Skyline His Majesty the skyscraper” award, at its second edition, in collaboration with Aspesi, on 29th September. You’ll get the invitation soon. We’re expecting you at the Forum to talk about our survey”.
Finally, Emanuele Caniggia, Idea Fimit Ceo, intervened. The company will receive during the forum the “Real estate excellence 2017” award. During this occasion, the company strategies for next year will be presented.
Translator: Cristina Ambrosi