30 October, Il Giornale
The recovery of real estate is real, but it’s hard to see. Since 2008, the average price index in the big cities has continued to go down, but the intensity of the fall, reaching in 2012 the lowest point of -10.5%, has been almost totally reabsorbed in the first semester of this year (-0.4%).
According to the research by Tecnocasa, the hope for 2017 is to close even and that for 2018 the index to be positive again. Transactions have done better, in 2008 they were at their peak (845 thousand units) and they’d been progressively decreased at less than half (409 thousand) in 2013, then they went up again to 464 thousand in 2015 and spiked at 525 thousand the following year. For 2017, Tecnocasa expects to close at 550-570 thousand, aligned with sales contracts. For what concerns prices, among the big cities, Genoa is suffering (-3%), Milan (+1%) is in countertrend and Rome lost 0.7%. Prices are performing well in Bologna (+1.1%), Naples (+0.7%) and Verona (+0.5%), Florence hasn’t changed (-0.2%). The trend is different if we consider prices in 1998 when there was still lira. The house prices have risen by 33.5% on the overall, by 55% in Milan and by 57% in Rome. The most requested type of property is the three-room apartment (40.1%), followed by the four-room apartment (24.7%), except for Milan, where the requests for two-room apartments prevail (55.8%).
In the second quarter, after the preliminary estimates by Istat, the house price index has increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter and has decreased by 0.1% compared to 2016 (it was -0.2% in the previous quarter). The variation rate for 2017 is -0.1%. Reads a memo from Istat, “This dynamic confirms the persistence of a phase of substantial stability of house prices, following a significant drop between 2012 and 2016. This is happening in presence of an increase of the number of residential properties sold (+3.8% compared to the second quarter of 2016, based on the figures of the Revenue Office Observatory for Real Estate), that continued to grow in 2015 but reduced for the fourth consecutive quarter”. This slight reduction is due exclusively to the prices of existing houses whose variation is once again negative. Prices of new hoses, instead, register a positive variation equal to 0.1%.
The taxation system has been the main factor to burden property owners. It will lighten up with the next budget, including the “green bonus” for gardens, yards and terraces to the eco-bonus for energetic improvement, till the bonus for renovation works confirmed for 2018. The rules are most likely to remain the same: it will be possible to deduct 50% from the expenses over ten years (up to a maximum of 48,000 euro over 96,000, that is 4,800 yearly) for extraordinary maintenance, renovations, reorganisations, and new car spaces. But also for walls, skylights, elimination of architectural barriers, railings, intercoms and video intercoms.
Source: Il Giornale
Translator: Cristina Ambrosi