30 September 2017
The market is dynamic, the times for closing a deal have reduced, demand is growing while the offer is reducing: these are all signals of a recovery of the property sector. Unlike the reports of the previous months, this is not a mild recovery, rather an actual restart. Certainly, it will take time before returning to the pre-recession wealth, but this doesn’t discourage the operators since the golden age of real estate had then turned into a “property bubble”. This time, a more conscious trend makes hope for a more solid recovery.
The 2018 European Outlook by Scenari Immobiliari, that took place on 15th and 16th September in Santa Margherita Ligure analyse the Italian and the European markets. In the words of the president Mario Breglia, there is all the enthusiasm for this recovery: “the recession is over in Italy too, even though the recovery appears more delicate due to some structural weaknesses of our country”.
It’s not only the real estate market performing well, it’s the economic context on which it depends. Italy is now in better shape, there is a new trust among consumers, now more open towards banks, creating a virtuous circle for a consumer credit market that is booming. According to Eurofinas, the European association of the companies operating in the consumer credit sector, in 2016 the growth rate for loans in Italy was +15.6% and +11% in Europe.
It’s a fact that the Italian property market has grown in the last 17 years (from 2000 till today)by almost fifty percent, 30% more than the European average, and the outlook for the next year is an additional 6.5% in the residential market. The expectations are justified by a widespread recovery regarding all the countries in Europe, where a growth of 6% is expected for next year, with peaks of 10% in Spain and France and prices rising by 4% in Germany and Spain.
However, prices are still a delicate matter in Italy, with Genoa registering in the first semester of the year -3.0% and Rome -0.7%, while Milan reported +1%, showing a more thriving market compared to the average of the rest of the country. Despite this, prices are falling on the overall and the phenomenon regards big cities, registering -0.4%, the hinterland with -1.1%, and provincial capitals with -0.8%.
The times to complete a sale are performing better. After they fell by 6% between January and March, times for the first half of the semester are set at 141 days for big cities, 162 days for the hinterland, and 167 days for provincial capitals.
Good news also for requested prices. The lowest price range has increased, reaching 119 thousand euro according to the figures of Osservatorio Immobiliare 2017 by Teconocasa.
Translator: Cristina Ambrosi