(Visited 112 times, 1 visits today)
(Visited 112 times, 1 visits today)

NPL, transfers for 70 billion expected for 2018

13 December, Il Sole 24 Ore

The turning point for Italian bad loans (NPL) is getting closer. By the end of the year, the NPL stock will reach 250 billion euro, against the 324 billion of 2016. This is an estimation by PwC based on proforma data, disclosed during the presentation of “The Italian NPL Market: ready for the breakthrough”.

2018 will be a crucial year. According to Paolo Masenza, head of financial services deals for Pwc, “the NPL transfer market might reach next year a value of 70-billion-euro gross for operations that have been announced but haven’t been closed yet”. Such as the securitisation for 26.1 billion by Mps. Whereas in 2017 there have been transfers for 64 billion euro, plus 10 billion of credits directly managed by banks. More in details, the gross value of bad loans has reduced from 200 to 190 billion as per 30th June and the remaining transfers (54 billion) have been carried out during the second semester. The net value dropped in June going from 87 to 71 billion and the bad loans ratio, namely the ratio between NPL and active credits has fallen from 5.6 %to 4.7%. While the unlikely to pay and the past due have respectively decreased from 117 to 104 billion and from 7 to 6 billion, as for 30th June.

“Real estate represents a driving force with 80% of the total value – adds Fedele Pascuzzi, PwC partner – and regulation has done steps forwards concerning the reform on bankruptcy law and it will crucial for the 2018 outlook”.

The market in 2017 has seen big restructuring operations – the main transfer of bad loans and unlikely to pay by di Veneto Banca and Bp Vicenza to Sga was for a value for 16.8 billion, followed by the operations carried out by Quaestio of the portfolios of Casse di Cesena, Rimini and San Miniato and by the maxi-operation of Unicredit for 17 billion. The other new entry was the intense acquisition activities by the servicers, with Ipo of doBank and several transfers of NPL management platforms owned by banks.

“We’re slowly recovering – commented Vito Ruscigno, head of Npl for Pwc – but we’re far from the European average” with an NPL ratio of 15%, based on the figures by Eba, against the Eu average of 5%.

Source: Il Sole 24 Ore

Translator: Cristina Ambrosi