18 June, Milano Finanza
Tomorrow DoBank will present its new 2018-2020 business plan. Today, the shares were in countertrend with the rest of the market, having increased by 1.59% and set at 10.88 euro. The following is what analysts expect from the plan.
Equita, whose rating is “hold” while the target price is 12,2 euro, expects net returns for 230.7 million euro in 2020 (the consensus estimates 235 million), against the 194.9 million of 2017. Equita forecasts a yearly growth of the Ebitda by 14.6%, reaching 105.7 million in 2020 against the 70.1 million in 2017. Concerning net profits, the expected annual growth is composed of 70.5 million in 2020 and 45 million in 2017.
“The presentation should also include the drivers for the growth of returns in the medium-term”, according to Equita. There’s considerable attention for the international expansion plans. The company reminds that in the first quarter of the year, doBank launched its business in Greece through doBank Hellas, even though no servicing contract has been announced so far.
Regarding the management of unlikely to pay, Equita expects that the company to clearly explain the modalities through which it intends entering the Italian UTP market (94 billion at the end of 2017). “We believe that the servicing of UTP might be a great opportunity for servicers. But there must be more transparency regarding their management and the remuneration modalities. According to our calculations, the entrance in the UTP market will generate additional returns for approximately 35 million by 2019 (+15% gross returns)”.
Finally, Equita awaits to know whether the budget will be used for M&A or to pay extraordinary dividends. The analysts conclude that “the identification of the drivers supporting the returns and the medium- and long-term margins is an essential element for the re-rating of the shares”.
Kepler Cheuvreux has also given a “hold” rating with a target price of 13.2 euro for doBank. The experts of the merchant bank expect “positive messages from the Capital Markets Day” and estimate returns for 253 million euro by 2020, with an Ebitda around 104 million and a net profits for 67 million”.
Source: Milano Finanza
Translator: Cristina Ambrosi