Fitch thinks that prices of properties will drop by 15% and that delays in mortgage payments will boost up to 11,4%.

The credit rating agency Fitch considers that the price of properties in Spain will drop by an extra 15% due to the unfavorable conditions of the Spanish economy, as included in a report on the mortgage residential market, where he estimates that the delay in payments can reach 11,4% in Spain.

Fitch explains that, since the crisis started, the sales in the real estate sector have dropped by 70%, while prices have only done so by 25% (33%, according to Tinsa), a downward tendency which should continue due to surplus of around one million homes, the great number of evictions carried out in 2008 and the credit restriction because of the deleverage process of banks.

“It will take many years to absorb the stock of homes even if sales reach levels prior to the crisis”, the agency assures on the situation of the Spanish market.

In general, the agency stresses that there are “considerable worries” on Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Italy, countries which will have “depressed mortgage loans, continuous decreases of property prices and pressures on incomes and trust of consumers.”

Fitch foresees the greatest drops on property prices in these countries due to the fragile forecast of credit availability, the unemployment, the economic growth and the consumer trust. Property prices will fall by 13% in Italy and Portugal, 15% in Spain and Greece and 20% in Ireland.

On the other hand the agency expects the delays in payments to increase (for mortgages and other credits) in countries such as Spain, Portugal and Italy, due to the increase in evictions and bankruptcies, the high unemployment and the macroeconomic uncertainty. It will reach 11,4% in Spain, 9,9% in Portugal and 9,1% in Italy, figures which are still far from the 21% in Ireland and 18% in Greece.

Fitch claims that the Spanish mortgage market will deteriorate “greatly” during 2013, due to the discouraging forecast on unemployment and the loss of subsidies for long term unemployed with mortgages. On the third quarter of 2012 (last figures of the Bank of Spain), the country registered a delay in payments for mortgages of 3,63%, around 23227 million Euros.

On the other hand, it does not see an increase in interest rates on the short term and hopes they will remain at their historic minimum rates in order to avoid further evictions. Unemployment will therefore be the main cause for default in 2013.

“Nevertheless, the Spanish real estate market is extremely vulnerable to an increase in interest rates on the long term”, Fitch stresses, as most mortgages in Spain are linked to the Euribor.

Source: El Mundo

Most of the Spaniards believe that property prices will continue to fall.

Not only the real estate market experts believe that property prices will continue dropping, in spite of the adjustment of 30% experienced since the beginning of the crisis. Spaniards believe it as well. According to the last Consumer Trust Indicator (CTI) published in December by the Superior Center of Scientific Studies, more than half of the interviewees (52,7%) believe that property prices will continue falling for the next 12 months. Another 37,1% believes that prices will remain unchanged. Only 4,9% foresee an increase in prices.

These percentages, compared to the figures of November, indicate that more people believe that property prices will continue to fall. (…)

Currently, those anticipating more discounts on property prices based their answers on a lesser demand: 40,9% base their response on this factor.

31,4% establish that the descent of purchasing power will be the cause for the fall of property prices and 27,8% declare that the excessive offer will affect prices.

With this scenario, the answer to the question “are you planning to purchase a home in 2013?” is quite obvious. Up to 97,3% rules out this option, while only 2,1% declares an intention to buy a property (…).

Source: El Mundo

International funds throw themselves onto Spanish real estate bargains.

2012 has not been an exception and, last week, several international funds closed acquisitions on buildings with a total global value of around 150 million Euros.

The last one has been carried out by an institution still unknown in the Spanish market: the North American fund Autonomy, which has acquired two office buildings in Alcobendas (Madrid). Those buildings are part of the Parque Omega, a complex created by the real estate companies Lar and Grosvenor. These two buildings are currently empty and their rental price is around 10 Euros per square meter per month. Two of the buildings in Parque Omega are in the hands of Inmoseguros, while the remaining two belong to Grosvenor. The agreement with Autonomy was closed on the two buildings although, according to market sources, it could be extended to the rest of the complex.

The acquisition has been a surprise within the sector, not only because Autonomy was not operating in Spain, but also because of the opportunistic profile of the fund, a type of investor that, although has been analyzing the market for years, had not carried out the expected volume of operations.

Another figure which has taken advantage of December in order to enter the Spanish market is the Venezuelan company Sambil. A developer and a construction company, this firm has acquired the center Avenida M-40 in Madrid for 17 million Euros.

It was opened in 2004 by the fund Sierra and managed by the Portuguese real estate group Sonae Sierra, the mall closed its doors at the end of 2010, after being in creditor´s meeting. 68 million Euros were spent in its construction. Now Sambil is thinking of reopening it as an outlet.

Another two international funds, Värde and Anchorage, have acquired six buildings in Madrid and Barcelona from Eurohypo, which had been taken over from the real estate company Monteverde. The investors have paid around 100 million Euros, according to sources close to the transaction. Another operation has been the purchase of 438 branch offices of Caixabank by Inmobiliaria Carso, belonging to Carlos Slim.

Carso has paid 420 million Euros. Also with a great volume, Grupo Villar Mir has acquired the Madrid complex Canalejas, an operation which has been in motion since the summer.

In spite of these operations, the real estate investment has dropped again in 2012. According to Deloitte, the volume of non residential acquisitions has reached 1642 million Euros, 50% less than the previous year.

Source: Expansión

Tax on Proprietary Transmissions 2013: taxes increase when acquiring a property in the Valencian Community.

 The VAT applied on any purchase of new residences in Spain has increased from 4% to 10% since the beginning of 2013 and also the Tax on Proprietary Transmission (TPT) in the Valencian Community, which is applied on purchases of second hand homes, which has increased from 7% to 8%.

This measure was announced months ago by the regional government and is in full force since the 1st January 2013. The increase in one percentage point will raise the cost of acquiring a property of 100000 Euros in around 1000 Euros.

In a scenario where the regional governments are trying to find ways to reduce their deficit, the increase of this tax is an easy way now that the VAT has reached 10%. The TPT is a tax regulated by the regional communities and differs from one community to another.

Therefore, as the VAT for new homes is more or less the same for all communities, the will to put the TPT on the same level can be the best excuse to increase it, as most of these regional governments are risking the suffocation of their public accounts, and some of them have been obliged to ask the central government for financial aid.

The recent ups and downs of all taxes affecting properties since the government of Zapatero have helped some communities like Andalusia to raise the TPT. It was nearly a political fight, as most of the regions with governments of the Popular Party did not agree with this raise, as they were at that time declaring that raising taxes was not the way to reduce the deficit or to leave the crisis behind.

Nevertheless, now the Popular Party has increased the VAT for properties to 10% and it is probable that many regions will take advantage of this to raise the TPT around that level. Those communities which have asked for financial aid are the ones with more possibilities to do so, like Catalonia or Murcia. Murcia has a TPT between 2% and 7%, depending on the social situation of the acquirer and Catalonia has 5%, 7% and 8%.

Castilla Leon and Castilla La Mancha are also thinking of increasing it, as well as Andalusia and Balearic Islands. These last two regions cannot increase it that much as they already carried out some raises recently. All of them except Madrid and Aragon are planning to increase it, according to a recent article in Expansion.

In 2011, all communities collected 4000 million Euros through the TPT, 20% less than in 2010. The collection in 2012 also seems to follow this path, with a drop of around 20%.

Source: Idealista

The bad bank and the end of the tax benefits will increase property prices even more.

After four years of downfall in the real estate sector, there are very few analysts who dare make a forecast on the evolution of the market in 2013. Specially when 2012 has seen the worst figures in construction and sales since the boom finished. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), there were 269880 operations up to October. Nearly 100000 less than in 2011. And prices continue to fall. The square meter has lost more than 25% of its value in comparison with the maximum figures during the boom. Everyone agrees that the evolution of the number of sales and the prices will be affected by two novelties: the establishment of the bad bank and the end of the tax benefits on the purchase of properties.

The constitution of the bad bank, or Sareb, to whom all banks and savings banks are transferring their toxic assets related to the real estate sector, among them properties and land, can cause a change in the tendency, even though its short term sales policy has still not been explained.

Sareb can choose between taking an inventory of all available assets and selling or giving the market a boost in order to reactivate it; that is, it needs to decide between commercializing  the assets or not and depending on its decision it will have a greater or minor effect on the market, Julio Gil, partner of the real estate consulting firm Horizone, explains

Although the president of the bad bank, Belén Romana, has explained it will not concentrate on the retail market, but will segment the properties in packages so as to maximize their value, and the Ministry of Economy and the Bank of Spain insist that the prices of the absorbed assets are not a reference in the market, the real estate sector believes that the discounts applied on the sale of these assets will influence the rest of operations, pushing prices down.

“The prices established by Sareb will be a reference”, Gil says, who believes “prices will continue to fall”. Mainly because of the increase of the unemployment and the lack of credit, but also because 2013 starts with tax novelties which affect the sector. Since yesterday, property buyers will not benefit from the deduction for the acquisition of their principal residence, and also the “superreduced” VAT, which is applied to these transactions has increased from 4% to 10%. The disappearance of these incentives, along with the paralysis of the sector and the lack of financing – the stock of unsold properties remains in 700000 units – will force sellers to apply higher discounts.

There are also some other pending details, such as the measures to be approved by the Government on housing or the legislation on real estate investment companies (Socimi).

Very few share the views of the Secretary of State of Economy, Fernando Jiménez Latorre, who last year assured that the prices of properties had already reached their rock bottom. “The fall of prices will be very similar to the one in 2012”, a representative of RR Acuña & Asociados declares.

The negative economic and unemployment forecasts foresee new set-backs. Prices will continue to have a downward tendency. And they should drop between 0,5% and 1,5% monthly during all year, as declared by Manuel Gandarias, director of the Studies Division of Pisos.com.

Source: ABC